Friday, 27 December 2013

Can Yaya keep this up?

I have been called an idiot and a fool this week on Twitter after I tweeted something like "Yaya can't keep this up". I was obviously referring to his stellar season so far in Premier League. Apparently, he can. The argument I was presented with is that he can, as he has been doing it for half of a season already.

While I accept the rights of other individuals to express their opinions, I don't:

  1. particularly fancy someone calling me an idiot (a fool is more likely to be accepted)
  2. accept something just "because it's been like this" for a certain period

While I have not been lighting the FPL league on fire this year (currently ranked 13k+) as opposing to last year's 15th place in the end, I still like to avoid FPL players who are over-hyped (in my opinion) and who I don't believe will continue to deliver at such a level for a foreseeable future. Obviously, I get things wrong. After all, I haven't owned Ramsey at all this year for that particular reason. Cisse from two years ago also jumps to mind.

But, when it comes to Yaya, I really felt like his conversion rate is just too good to be true or sustainable. To judge if I am really a fool (or worse), I jumped over to www.fourfourtwo.com and hand checked (I have no access to OPTA statistics otherwise) each game Yaya played for:
  • total number of shots in a game
  • shots on goal
  • converted chances
At 9.9m and 42,3% owned, he has been dubbed as "the complete FPL player" and, looking solely at his stats (he scored 9 goals and assisted 3), one might agree. To make things more interesting, I decided to compare his stats to that of the best striker in Premier League at the moment, Luis Suarez. While I do understand that it's hard, if not impossible, to compare a striker to a midfielder, I actually wanted to compare their conversion rates more than anything. And this is what I got.


Yaya Toure has had 30 shots in total in the first 17 game weeks, with 13 of those being on target, which is 43% of the shots. Not too bad. And, out of those 13 on target, he scored 9 goals! That's a tad more than 69% if you calculate his conversion rate only from shots on target. S-i-x-t-y-n-i-n-e. 

I will let that sink in for a moment.

The conversion rate percentage falls down to 30% if you take into account all shots on target, but it's still higher than the conversion rate from one Luis Suarez at 25%. Suarez' conversion rate, taking into account only shots which are on target is 49%, which is a staggering 20 percentage points lower than that of Yaya.

Now, I will let you draw your own conclusion from this, but to me, this seems a little too good to be true. While he is still on penalties, he might still keep this rate up, but I can't see it lasting the entire season. In my layman's opinion, Yaya CAN'T keep this up.

I just might be a fool, but I am going with Silva. 9.3m and 6,3% owned. As always, this is only one man's opinion. :) 

P.S. If Yaya keeps this up, I give up. :)
P.P.S. I hand counted all shots, so there might be a slight discrepancy, but I would call that a statistical error.