Friday, 26 December 2014

Boxing Day Bruising

I don't usually do any write ups in the immediate aftermath of a Gameweek.  But I feel that I have done 10 rounds of boxing, aptly on Boxing Day, and have been unexpectedly bruised.  As a result, a write up is in order as I know lots of people follow FPLH enthusiastically and even make decisions based on what my writers and I say.  What I considered masterstroke team selections and shrewd transfers for GW18 backfired in spectacular fashion.  This is in stark contrast to the recent FPL captain highs that I have experienced.  So how bad was the damage?

I sold Rooney = -16 net loss

I bought Zabaleta = -4 + 0 minutes played

I bought and captained Giroud = -4 (first time my captain has been sent off)

I benched Austin = -7

I have crashed out of the FPL cup in the first round (first time this has happened).

= -31 points net loss (without factoring in alternative captain options*).

*I could have captained Silva, Siggy, Chadli, Costa, Hazard or even Green for some viable fantasy returns, but I gave the armband to Giroud and he gave us a moment of madness.

A lot of what has happened in GW18 was a culmination of freakish outcomes.  I don't claim to predict the future and never will.  But I rely on statistical analysis and calculated risks to make my FPL decisions.  The irony was that I didn't even consider buying Giroud till late on, but I felt he was viable as a one GW transfer (then to be replaced by Benteke). Sadly it wasn't in my destiny to do that well during this Gameweek.  I can let it hinder my strategy or move on.  C'est la vie.  Let me be clear, I play FPL as I enjoy the game and like helping others with the hints that I provide.  Please note, anyone who takes my advice on board does so on their own accord - ultimately, you make your own FPL decisions. I have no regrets on the changes I made, as I based it on sound logic which had put me in good stead in the previous Gameweeks.

Taking stock of what has happened, the following are my immediate action points:

  • I will continue to use statistical analysis to buy players & select captains.
  • I will almost certainly never make a "1 GW transfer" ever again.
  • I know it sounds harsh, but I may not buy Giroud ever again.
  • I will almost certainly avoid taking a hit for GW19.

Aside from that, sorry if you copied any of my transfers and team selections from GW18. May it be a lesson learnt for all of us. We may be feeling down right now, but FPL is a game at the end of the day. These things happen. Remember, it's how you respond to the bad GWs that makes you a good FPL manager, not the good GWs. So, chin up, we have 2 GWs coming up in the space of less than a week!

Back to the drawing board...