Thursday, 3 January 2013

Guest Post: Do you really need to be reliant on Robin?

With the second half of the season upon us, our blog will host a series of ad hoc guest articles.  The first one is about FPL's talisman Robin Van Persie (RVP) and whether he is a must or not.  It is written by a person who has not had him in his team all season!

RVP-Free FPL Team & Its Exploits

A tweet related to FPL certainly got my attention this week. Surely no manager can be top of their super league, having not had Robin Van Persie at all this season. Can they? 16 league goals, numerous assists, and bonus points galore. To have the new Man United hit man in your Premier League Fantasy squad is a no brainer isn’t it? Surely? Well not for me.

I’ve been top of my super league since the very beginning of the season (currently by 54 points), and whilst the 5 people below me all have RVP (usually as Captain), I’ve held firm with my strategy of differentiators.

With 1195 points and ranked 7339, I thought it worth reflecting on some of those tough and instinctive decisions that as Fantasy Football managers we all sometimes make.

Robin Van Persie, is now at the £14m mark, and part of 40.9% of teams, having racked up 149 points. Compelling figures for sure. But he hasn’t been a part of my squad at all this season, and as his price continues to soar, it’s unlikely that he will be. Some will see this as a huge error, and suggest that a player of this calibre is an absolute must for any manager looking for success. But the one thing I have tried to remember over the years of playing this ridiculously addictive and frustrating game, is that a squad is there for a reason. For me, it’s as much about finding the hidden and unsuspecting gems, as picking the top goal scorer.

Spending £14m on one player probably means that you’ll be rooting around in the basement for a couple of bargains, or that you may not have many star players elsewhere. A sacrifice that I wasn’t willing to make.

There is an enormous amount of luck involved in the game we love, we know this. Despite all of the hours of research, and fretting over pressing the submit button, it’s so often about that instinctive timing.

At the start of the season, I made a conscious decision to stay clear of RVP, his future still uncertain and other strikers guaranteed games. My first picks were Aguero, Tevez and Defoe. City I thought would get off to a flyer, and with Spurs set to play 1 up front, and Defoe the only recognised striker at the time, my front 3 was set.

I then filled my squad with what I hoped would be goal scorers. Michu is one player I take the most satisfaction from this summer. In from the start, having read rave reviews about him in June and July, he’s been a roaring success. Alongside Bale, Walters and Hazard I was pretty confident that I had enough fire power to get me off to a good start. Aren’t strikers that are listed as midfielders just the greatest thing?!

As always, injuries, suspensions, fixtures and form dictate a certain amount of jiggling about with the squad, but in the main, my squad remains. The one constant, Aguero as captain and no RVP.

As his price began to rise once he joined United, and the goals began to flow, of course I began to wonder, should I put him in? Is it now or never? Will that change the make-up of my squad? Replacing Aguero with RVP would be a significant price jump, and sacrifices elsewhere would have to be made. I continued to hold off, my strikers and midfielders were still banging in goals, so I wasn’t worried at all.

Personally, I’d rather have 4 or 5 players capable of scoring double figures in any given week, then just be praying for a brace by RVP, with nothing else to back me up. You can see it on twitter, the relief of managers that captain RVP every week, when he gets an assist or a goal. Surely spreading your risk across your squad, gives you more opportunity for a decent return each week?

Tevez has been and gone, replaced by Hernandez in recent weeks, who even by coming off the bench for 20 minutes and getting a goal, (which is what United do best to kill teams off) has gained me some decent points. The introduction of Walcott has also paid off, whilst Fellaini, Mata and Toure have all played their part as well. All of which helping to maintain my healthy super league lead, with me still not having RVP within my squad.

I think we all assume that in the form RVP is in, he’ll probably bag 30 goals plus this season, which is an incredible achievement. And quite clearly, with nearly half of the season remaining, my strategy could all too easily come back to bite me. But for now, I’m happy with my choices. Aguero’s injury may further complicate things if it’s any more serious than first thought. That’s a bridge to cross when it comes to it.

The January wildcard poses an interesting dilemma for most of us. My last probable chance of getting RVP in, I’m pretty confident that I won’t cave. Will I regret that? Well we’ll have to wait and see.  For now, I’ll continue to search out the next burst of form, and have a squad that I think capable of scoring decent points each week. For what it’s worth, Papiss Cisse is high on my agenda.

RVP, undeniably a top goal scorer, and for most, a fantasy football dream. But at £14m, and whilst there are 15 players to pick, he’s not the man for me.

Monday, 31 December 2012

FPL Hints - Gameweek 21

FPLH's GW 21 Team*

Transfers: Sessegnon (OUT) / Walcott (IN)

*FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter and Facebook accounts.

Team Reasoning

Sometimes you have to go with your gut instinct even if it means a -4 hit.  Alas I didn't do that last GW and lost out on 26 points, as well as my place in the FPL Cup!  You guessed it, I wanted Theo Walcott but stalled at the last hour.  I even recommended him as one of my ideal XI hot picks for GW 20.  I suppose at least that purchasing Podolski for Tevez was a minor masterstroke and gained me a further 11 points.

The problem was that I wanted to give Valencia one final chance (and he just about delivered).  Another option was to get rid of Michu but I didn't want to panic sell a top goalscorer due to his short-term injury.  The final choice was to sell Sessegnon, despite his quasi-return to form.

For this GW I have gone with the obvious and brought in Theo Walcott.  I had in fact bought him in November before he was struck down with injury and had Reading not had a DGW I wouldn't have sold him for the ill-fated Robson-Kanu.  Ironically, Theo has an upcoming DGW and I thought it best to plan ahead and bring him in now, especially with Southampton (A) being his next fixture.

I was looking at a -4 hit for GW21 and many options stood out; Marveaux (4.2), Gibbs (5.5), Evans (5.8), Azpilicueta (5.6) to name but a few.  Knowing my luck they will probably score goals and keep clean sheets between them in GW 21.  In the end I decided to hold my horses and not make any other rash changes as my team looks relatively strong.

My captain for GW21 is Theo Walcott, which was a no-brainer.  I doubt he will be rested v Southampton as Arsenal didn't play on Boxing Day.  On a more positive note, as I won FPL Dugout's league last season I gained automatic entry into their Champions League for this season and I look forward to dominating it!

Recommended Player for Gameweek 21
  
Theo Walcott

Scored a colossal 40 points in his last 3 PL matches!
Listed as a midfielder but now playing as a striker.
At sub £9.0M, he is value for money.


FPLH's Hot Picks XI for GW 21

Hart

Luiz
Walker
Gibbs
 
Lennon
Walcott-c
Valencia
Mata

Van Persie
Defoe-vc
Podolski

Subs:
Lloris
Azpilicueta
Marveaux
B. Davies


6/15 Hot Picks' feature in FPLH's GW Team

Friday, 28 December 2012

FPL Hints - Gameweek 20

FPLH's GW 20 Team*

Transfers: Tevez (OUT) / Podolski (IN)

*FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter and Facebook accounts.
Team Reasoning

Not sure what to say about the previous Gameweek.  I bought and recommended Sidwell, yet stupidly didn't save the team and he ended up on the bench.  Fortunately he didn't score or assist v Southampton.  To add to my woes, RVP didn't get any bonus points (despite bagging a goal and an assist), I ended up scoring a paltry 44 and just about won my cup match by 2 points.  For the last 2 months it seems that a good GW is followed by a bad GW for me!

For this GW I have had to retract my previous statement about Tevez.  With loss of form and the fixture jam, I believe he will feature less, especially after failing to score in his last few fixtures.  He is in need of a rest and I think you will see Dzeko line up with Aguero, rather than Tevez.  With this in mind I decided to draft in Podolski.  I had him in my team previously yet sold him when his form faltered, only for him to bite me back and score more points!

Podolski is listed as a striker but plays in Arsenal's midfield, whilst Walcott is listed as a midfielder and has recently begun playing as their main striker.  Confusing?  Don't let it be.  Podolski will be a key purchase, especially with Arsenal's upcoming fixtures which includes a Double Gameweek:

GW 20 - Newcastle (H)
GW 21 - Southamption (A)
GW 22 - Man City (H)
DGW 23 -  Chelsea (A)
DGW 23 - West Ham (H)

I have decided to captain Van Persie again for GW 20 following his blistering form, with Podolski as my vice captain.  I have benched Michu as I think he will not recover in time for GW20, with Rafael also benched due to his on-going injury.

Recommended Player for Gameweek 20
  
Lukas Podolski

Scored 5 and assisted 5 in the PL so far this season.
Can cut in from the flanks to score/create goals.
Is regularly used as Arsenal's free kick taker.
At £8.2M, he is reasonably priced.


FPLH's Hot Picks XI for GW 20

de Gea

Huth
Riise
Gibbs
 
Sidwell
Walcott
Sessegnon
Bale

Van Persie-c
Hernandez
Podolski-vc

Subs:
Schwarzer
Baines
Luiz
Sterling

8/15 Hot Picks' feature in FPLH's GW 20 Team

Monday, 24 December 2012

FPL Hints - Gameweek 19

FPLH's GW 19 Team*

Transfers: Robson-Kanu (OUT) / Sidwell (IN)

*FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter and Facebook accounts.

Team Reasoning

Looks like my team changes from last week were half successful.  Bringing in Luiz and recommending him worked out a treat.  However my purchase of Tevez (c) didn't come good against a dire Reading team, where as the player I sold (Fletcher) did in fact score.  Despite my captain only bagging 2 points, I scored 65 points overall and can't complain with the much needed bounce back.

For the boxing day fixtures (GW19), I realise that some regular first team players across the board will be rested.  Naturally this means that my bench could come into play and I am confident that I have reasonable subs at hand.  Moreover I am lucky that I have no Arsenal or West Ham players as their fixture has been postponed. 

I decided to buy Sidwell due to a number of reasons.  Firstly, he is a key member of Fulham's first team.  Despite only being a central midfielder he has scored a credible amount of goals in the league so far this season (4).  I am confident he will start in Fulham's next two matches, which are reasonable:

GW 19 - Southampton (H)
GW 20 - Swansea (H)

Sidwell tends to do well at home against non-elite clubs.  In fact all 4 of his goals were scored at home.  This is good as I can easily alternate him with confidence when he has an away fixture.  In addition his bonus points accumulation this season has been impressive - 10 bonus points, 11th best for a midfielder.  A better record than the likes of Arteta, Hazard and Silva!

All the above is amazing when you see that he is only priced at £5.1M.  I have never been a fan of his, but I now see a pattern with him and I like it.  He won't score week in week out, but he is the perfect pick for certain home matches, as is the case now!

As for my captain I have opted for Van Persie, even though I fear that he could be rested.  In which case Michu should kick in for me against Reading.

Recommended Player for Gameweek 19
  
Steve Sidwell

Likely to start upcoming matches, unlike some other players.
Less than 3% ownership makes him a differential.
At £5.1M, he is definitely a steal purchase!

FPLH's Hot Picks XI for GW 19

de Gea

Evra
Riise
Baines
 
Sidwell
Pienaar
Taarabt
Michu-vc

Van Persie-c
Berbatov
Jelavic

Subs:
Silva
Luiz
Huth

6/15 Hot Picks' feature in FPLH's GW 19 Team

Thursday, 20 December 2012

FPL Hints - Gameweek 18

FPLH's GW 18 Team*

Transfers: Fletcher & Shorey (OUT) / Tevez & Luiz (IN)

*FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter and Facebook accounts.
Team Reasoning

Following last GW's fail, I have decided to spruce up my team.  Out goes Fletcher and in comes Tevez.  Despite the rotation risk, I am confident that Tevez will feature for City over the festive period and do well with their upcoming fixtures.  Moreover City will be looking to catch up lost ground from United.

I have also decided to sell Shorey due to Reading's poor defensive record and brought in Luiz.  I was encouraged by his midfield role (despite being a defender) during the World Club Cup and I believe he is due a goal or two.

On a side note, I must apologise for my recent slump in form.  A good festive period points haul would be the perfect tonic to my recent woes.  It's not time for me to go gung ho, but a bit of high points consistency wouldn't go amiss.

Recommended Player for Gameweek 18
  
David Luiz

Attack minded defender that can score goals.
Less than 3% ownership makes him a differential.
Recently deployed as a midfielder which is promising.

Hart (MNC)

  Luiz / vc (CHE)
  Cole (CHE)
Johnson (LIV)
 
Sterling (LIV)
Hazard (CHE)
Valencia (MNU)
Toure (MNC)

Van Persie (MNU)
  Tevez / c (MNC)
  Suarez (LIV)

Subs:
Foster (WBA)
Walker (TOT)
Rafael (MNU)
Michu (SWA)

8/15 Hot Picks' feature in FPLH's GW 18 Team

Wednesday, 12 December 2012

FPL Hints - Gameweek 17

FPLH's GW 17 Team*

Transfers: None

*FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter and Facebook accounts.
 
 
Team Reasoning

Following poor purchases (and a -4 hit) that failed to materialise in GW16, I have decided to go cold turkey in GW17 and not purchase any new players at all.

With hindsight it was a dumb idea to sign Shorey up for DGW, especially considering the fact that Reading have failed to keep a clean sheet away in the league all season.  Robson-Kanu's no show last night didn't help either.

On the plus side, the benefit of having Shorey and Robson-Kanu as subs is that I am now less likely to have lost points on the bench.

I have decided to bring Rafael back in following my disasterous choice of leaving him out v City, then again, who would have predicted his two assists?

Robson-Kanu loses his place to Suarez after he served his one match ban.

It was a close call between my captain pick (Van Persie v Suarez), but I have decided to opt for Van Persie as United have scored far more home goals than Liverpool (19-9).
 
I trust that my spare transfer could be handy with the upcoming fixture congestion for GWs 18-21.

Recommended Player for Gameweek 17
  
Robin Van Persie

Van Persie has scored 3 goals in his last 3 PL outings
United are scoring 3+ goals at home in the PL thus far
At £13.8 Van Persie isn't cheap, but definitely worth it!

de Gea (MNU)

  Bassong (NOR)
Enrique (LIV)
Ridgewell (WBA)
 
Sterling (LIV)
Snodgrass (NOR)
Dempsey (TOT)
Cazorla (ARS)
 
Van Persie (MNU)
Rooney (MNU)
  Suarez (LIV)

Subs:
Begovic (STO)
Riise (FUL)
Huth (STO)
Michu (SWA)

7/15 Hot Picks' feature in FPLH's GW 17 Team

Thursday, 6 December 2012

FPL Hints - Gameweek 16

FPLH's GW 16 Team*

Transfers: Walcott and Demel (OUT) / Robson-Kanu and Shorey (IN)

*FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter and Facebook accounts.

Team Reasoning

I will keep this post brief like last week.  Following a run of mediocre/sub-par Gameweeks I have decided to shake my team up and take a -4 hit.

I have sold Demel due to West Ham's difficult fixtures and replaced him with Shorey due to Reading's DGW.  Shorey has been on form of late and has the potential to either keep a clean sheet or bag an assist.

Despite buying Walcott recently, it looks like he is out for the time being.  With an array of injuries in my squad (including Valencia, Ruddy and possibly Fletcher) I decided to make the most of DGW and draft in Robson-Kanu.  He too has been on form of late and could be key in scoring a few points in Gameweek 16.

My -4 hit could backfire, but it's worth taking a risk with the status quo.

Recommended Player for Gameweek 16
  
Hal Robson-Kanu

A steal at £4.3M and a differential! What more is there to say!?

FPLH's Hot Picks XI for GW 16

  Federici (REA)

  Cuellar (SUN)
Shorey (REA)
   Davies (SWA)

  Robson-Kanu (REA)
Fellaini (EVE)
Sessegnon / c (SUN)
Michu (SWA) 

Berbatov (FUL)
  Fletcher / vc (SUN)
  Kone (WIG)

Subs:
Tremmel (SWA) 
Lowton (AST)
Riise (FUL)
Lallana (SOT)

7/15 Hot Picks' feature in FPLH's GW 16 Team

Thursday, 29 November 2012

FPL Hints - Gameweek 15

FPLH's GW 15 Team*

Transfers: Hazard (OUT) / Walcott (IN)

*FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter and Facebook accounts.


Team Selection Reasoning


Folks, I won't bore you with a long article this GW.  My Sess captain/differential choice didn't pay off in GW14 and yes I should have stuck with safe old RVP as cpt.  For GW15 I have decided to sell Hazard for Walcott, due to the reasons stated below.  He may not be at Arsenal next season, but I am sure he will sign off in style.  27+ FPL points in his last 3 matches conveys his talent.

Recommended Player for Gameweek 15
  
Theo Walcott

Only owned by 2% of FPL Managers - Differential!
Arsenal have fairly good upcoming league fixtures
Has scored 2 goals in his last 2 league starts
Has proven Premier League pedigree
At £8.7M he is a relative bargain

An Ageing Kid Dynamite


FPLH's Hot Picks XI for GW 15

  de Gea (MNU)

  Vermaelen (ARS)
Kompany (MNC)
    Rafael (MNU)

Walcott (ARS)
Silva (MNC)
Sterling (LIV)
  Morrison (WBA)

Tevez / vc (MNC)
  Van Persie (MNU)
  Suarez / c (LIV)

Subs:
  
  Hart (MNC)
Cazorla (ARS)
Ridgewell (WBA)
  Garrido (NOR)


5/15 Hot Picks' feature in FPLH's GW 15 Team