New Gameweek review series on FPLH

Hi all,

Quick message... I'm pleased to announce that we have decided to revive FPLH's Gameweek review series.  The series will complement our on-going flagship Gameweek previews.  The reviews (previously known as summaries) were a regular fixture for FPLH during the 2011/12 season, i.e. with mentions of "Captain America" and other outlandish headlines!  I ditched the reviews/summaries for 2012/2013 during a phase of stream lining.  The 2013/14 previews will be written by Matej, Walt and I in our own unique styles.  Stay tuned and enjoy...

Regards,

Chief @ FPLHints

PS - A special thanks to our ever expanding readership and Twitter followers.  We have had a cracking summer; rising in the organic FPL rankings, being rated alongside major FPL pundits and rapidly expanding too.  If it wasn't for you folks we wouldn't be doing FPLH!

Guest Post: Do you really need to be reliant on Robin?

With the second half of the season upon us, our blog will host a series of ad hoc guest articles.  The first one is about FPL's talisman Robin Van Persie (RVP) and whether he is a must or not.  It is written by a person who has not had him in his team all season!

RVP-Free FPL Team & Its Exploits

A tweet related to FPL certainly got my attention this week. Surely no manager can be top of their super league, having not had Robin Van Persie at all this season. Can they? 16 league goals, numerous assists, and bonus points galore. To have the new Man United hit man in your Premier League Fantasy squad is a no brainer isn’t it? Surely? Well not for me.

I’ve been top of my super league since the very beginning of the season (currently by 54 points), and whilst the 5 people below me all have RVP (usually as Captain), I’ve held firm with my strategy of differentiators.

With 1195 points and ranked 7339, I thought it worth reflecting on some of those tough and instinctive decisions that as Fantasy Football managers we all sometimes make.

Robin Van Persie, is now at the £14m mark, and part of 40.9% of teams, having racked up 149 points. Compelling figures for sure. But he hasn’t been a part of my squad at all this season, and as his price continues to soar, it’s unlikely that he will be. Some will see this as a huge error, and suggest that a player of this calibre is an absolute must for any manager looking for success. But the one thing I have tried to remember over the years of playing this ridiculously addictive and frustrating game, is that a squad is there for a reason. For me, it’s as much about finding the hidden and unsuspecting gems, as picking the top goal scorer.

Spending £14m on one player probably means that you’ll be rooting around in the basement for a couple of bargains, or that you may not have many star players elsewhere. A sacrifice that I wasn’t willing to make.

There is an enormous amount of luck involved in the game we love, we know this. Despite all of the hours of research, and fretting over pressing the submit button, it’s so often about that instinctive timing.

At the start of the season, I made a conscious decision to stay clear of RVP, his future still uncertain and other strikers guaranteed games. My first picks were Aguero, Tevez and Defoe. City I thought would get off to a flyer, and with Spurs set to play 1 up front, and Defoe the only recognised striker at the time, my front 3 was set.

I then filled my squad with what I hoped would be goal scorers. Michu is one player I take the most satisfaction from this summer. In from the start, having read rave reviews about him in June and July, he’s been a roaring success. Alongside Bale, Walters and Hazard I was pretty confident that I had enough fire power to get me off to a good start. Aren’t strikers that are listed as midfielders just the greatest thing?!

As always, injuries, suspensions, fixtures and form dictate a certain amount of jiggling about with the squad, but in the main, my squad remains. The one constant, Aguero as captain and no RVP.

As his price began to rise once he joined United, and the goals began to flow, of course I began to wonder, should I put him in? Is it now or never? Will that change the make-up of my squad? Replacing Aguero with RVP would be a significant price jump, and sacrifices elsewhere would have to be made. I continued to hold off, my strikers and midfielders were still banging in goals, so I wasn’t worried at all.

Personally, I’d rather have 4 or 5 players capable of scoring double figures in any given week, then just be praying for a brace by RVP, with nothing else to back me up. You can see it on twitter, the relief of managers that captain RVP every week, when he gets an assist or a goal. Surely spreading your risk across your squad, gives you more opportunity for a decent return each week?

Tevez has been and gone, replaced by Hernandez in recent weeks, who even by coming off the bench for 20 minutes and getting a goal, (which is what United do best to kill teams off) has gained me some decent points. The introduction of Walcott has also paid off, whilst Fellaini, Mata and Toure have all played their part as well. All of which helping to maintain my healthy super league lead, with me still not having RVP within my squad.

I think we all assume that in the form RVP is in, he’ll probably bag 30 goals plus this season, which is an incredible achievement. And quite clearly, with nearly half of the season remaining, my strategy could all too easily come back to bite me. But for now, I’m happy with my choices. Aguero’s injury may further complicate things if it’s any more serious than first thought. That’s a bridge to cross when it comes to it.

The January wildcard poses an interesting dilemma for most of us. My last probable chance of getting RVP in, I’m pretty confident that I won’t cave. Will I regret that? Well we’ll have to wait and see.  For now, I’ll continue to search out the next burst of form, and have a squad that I think capable of scoring decent points each week. For what it’s worth, Papiss Cisse is high on my agenda.

RVP, undeniably a top goal scorer, and for most, a fantasy football dream. But at £14m, and whilst there are 15 players to pick, he’s not the man for me.

Written by Rob Taylor

FPL Hints - Gameweek 10

FPLH's GW 10 Team*

Transfers (OUT): O'Brien and Podolski

Transfers (IN): Huth and Defoe

*FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter and Facebook accounts.

Team Selection Reasoning

I did it!  After four Gameweeks of having an extra transfer at hand I have finally used it.  I wanted to get rid of O'Brien and mulled over many defensive options.  I wanted an attacking defender and was close to signing Baines.  However that would have been pricey.  Instead I went for Huth, which could be a risk as I am doubling up with Begovic.  But the fact is that Stoke's fixtures are reasonable for the next 8 weeks or so (see previous post).  Moreover Huth possesses a formidable attacking threat.  He may not have scored this season, but I am confident he is due a goal - his league strike rate for Stoke is 10% + which would make any central midfielder or winger proud.  

As for the other transfer that involved ditching Podolski.  Despite being listed as a striker he has been playing as a de facto midfielder at Arsenal, with Giroud as the out-and-out striker.  That was a put off and his performance v QPR was the final straw.  Thus I decided to replace him with an on-form goal poacher, step in Jermain Defoe.  He on the other hand has been fantastic this season.  A regular run in the first team has meant that he has bagged 5 goals and 3 assists in 9 Gameweeks.  I was close to buying him last week at 7.8 but in the end forked out an extra 0.2 for waiting a week later.  So far this season Defoe has proved he can score against small teams, big teams and in derby matches.  With this in mind his upcoming juicy fixtures are of interest as follows:

GW 10 - Wigan (H) - High goal scoring potential v a leaky defence

GW 11 - Man City (A) - Mild goal scoring potential v an inconsistent defence

GW 12 - Arsenal (A) - Moderate goal scoring potential v an inconsistent defence + derby

GW 13 - West Ham (H) - High goal scoring potential + derby

GW 14 - Liverpool (H) - Moderate goal scoring potential v transitional defence

GW 15 - Fulham (A) - High  goal scoring potential + derby

Wigan have conceded almost 2 goals per away match this season, which means that I will captain Defoe.  As for the vice-captain's armband I have decided to give that to RVP following his heroics against Chelsea.

Minimum ideal gameweek 10 points:

50

Potential ideal gameweek 10 points:

70

Recommended Player for Gameweek 10

Jermain Defoe

(Tottenham)

Why?

Scored 5 goals in 9 league matches this season

Is currently Tottenham's main striker

Priced at a cheap 8.0 - Bargain!

Proven attacking threat

Attacking Assassin

FPLH's Hot Picks XI for GW 10

  Mignolet (SUN)

  Walker (TOT)

  Riise (FUL)

  Rafael (MNU)

Mata (CHE)

  Bale (TOT)

 Morrison (WBA)

Sterling (LIV)

  Defoe / cpt (TOT)

Van Persie / vc (MNU)

  Fletcher (SUN)

Subs:

  Begovic (STO)

  Olsson (WBA)

  Huth (STO)

Hazard (CHE)

8/15 Hot Picks' feature in FPLH's GW 10 Team

FPL Hints - Gameweek 6

FPLH's GW 6 Team*

Transfers (OUT): Tevez

Transfers (IN): Suarez

*FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter and Facebook accounts.

Team Selection Reasoning

Following the disaster of GW4, GW5 turned out to be another disaster in equal measure!  FPLH's team only scored 42 points, with 23 unused points sitting on the bench - courtesy of Fellaini and Rafael having a good GW.  For GW6, I have decided to make one transfer which may appear to be surprising to some.  I have sold Tevez for Suarez.  This is in part as Aguero is back and Tevez is once again competing with three other strikers for a starting place.  On the contrary, Suarez is Liverpool's principal striker with no major rivals to challenge him.  Liverpool may not have league form on their side at the moment, but a team of their quality have to start winning eventually?  Also Liverpool's upcoming fixtures could prove a treat as follows:

GW 6 - Norwich (A) - Winnable / goals potential

GW 7 - Stoke (H) /  - Winnable / goals potential

GW 8 - Reading (H) /  - Winnable / goals potential

GW 9 - Everton (A) - Derby match / goals potential

GW 10 - Newcastle (H) /  - Winnable / goals potential

In terms of team selection I have decided to bench O'Brien, as I don't want to play two players from the same team in the same position.  I only purchased Demel and O'Brien due to their cheap prices.  Mertesacker is also benched as they are playing Chelsea.  Arsenal haven't been keeping clean sheets despite their form with Mannone goal.  My first substitute is Sterling as I feel Hazard, Fellaini, Michu and Nolan are more senior and could fare better in GW 6.  Finally I have chosen Cech in goal, instead of Vorm.  Both are playing away matches and unlikely to keep a clean sheet, but Cech has kept more clean sheets.

Recommended Player for Gameweek 6

Marouane Fellaini

(Everton)

Why?

Everton have had a very good start to the season and are 3rd

Southampton have conceded 15 goals in 5 league games

Fellaini plays  in a forward position behind the striker

He has scored 3 goals in 5 league matches

"Hair" we go!

FPLH's Hot Picks XI for GW 6

  Howard (EVE)

Rafael (MNU)

Demel (WHA)

Baines (EVE)

Fellaini / cpt (EVE)

Hazard (CHE)

Nolan / vc (QPR)

Ben Arfa (NEW)

Ba (NEW)

Van Persie (MNU)

Fletcher (SUN)

Subs:

Mignolet (SUN)

  Y Toure (MNC)

Lowton (AST)

O'Shea (SUN)

6/15 Hot Picks' feature in FPLH's GW 6 Team.

Recommended Player for Gameweek 38

Recommended Player for Gameweek 38 - Juan Mata (Chelsea)

I had to incur a -4 transfer hit to purchase him for the FPLH Blog Team.  But I think he could be worth it as the Premier League comes to an end for another season. My recommended player for Gameweek 38 is Chelsea's Juan Mata.

Some may say that he is a surprise endorsement considering his lack of league football of late.  Of course he didn't start in Chelsea's last league match and hasn't played a full 90 minutes in the Premier League for over a month.  But can you blame him or Chelsea for that?  The fact of the matter is that the Blues have also been busy with their FA Cup and Champions League runs that has led to Mata being subbed off early during league matches.  His lack of league play time has not been due to persistent injury or lack of form.  In fact the last time he played an hour's worth of football in the league he managed to bag four assists (v QPR). 

Some may say that he may not play a full 90 minutes v Blackburn (Chelsea's final league match of the season), due to the Champions League final the week after.  This could be true.  However he would have a week's rest for it if he plays on Sunday (also he was rested in the league match v Liverpool on 8th May).  This makes me believe that he should hopefully play an hour's worth against Rovers, with Chelsea hoping to end their league season on a high despite not playing for position.

The Spanish international is currently the Premier League's joint-top assister.   This is complimented by his 6 league goals.  All the more remarkable considering that he is playing in his inaugural Premier League season.   Such statistics highlight his attacking and creative nature.  Moreover, Chelsea on average have scored 2.17 goals per league match this season.  On the other hand Blackburn have conceded 2.39 goals per league matches this season.  In effect their match is a clash between one of the Premier League's best home attacking records against one of the worst defensive away records.  Surely he can make the most of this?

At 9.7 Mata is value for money considering his on-field output per minute.  The World Cup winner has proven pedigree that can come to the fore against the best and worst of teams.  He may have the Champions League final and Euro 2012 to look forward to, but he still has unfinished business against relegated Blackburn.  The 24 year old will hope to end the league season on a high and he should in theory do well by making a significant impact in Gameweek 38.

I will post My GW 38 Blog Team (with confirmation of my selected captain and vice-captain) at least a night before the Gameweek commences.

Recommended Player for Gameweek 26

Recommended Player for Gameweek 26 - Ashley Cole (Chelsea)

After taking time out from FPL, due to the FA cup weekend, I have decided to endorse a mildly surprising pick.  My recommended player for Gameweek 26 is Chelsea's Ashley Cole.  Ok, so Chelsea are going through a bit of a temporary slump and a crisis.  We know that it's not FPL 2009-2010 (When Cole scored 4 and assisted 4 during the season).  And we know that Chelsea are on a five game winless streak in all senior competitions, with AVB on the brink.  We are also fully aware that Ashley Cole is a publicised love rat.  But let us put that all to one side and see the contemporary footballing facts at hand.  Ashley Cole is only selected by 7.9% of FPL gamers and could be a differential for your team.  

Amazingly a staggering 20% of FPL gamers have selected his teammate Gary Cahill even though he has only started one Premier League match for Chelsea.  The fact of the matter is that Chelsea are known for their squad rotation policy but Ashley Cole has been their nailed on first choice left back for years.  Of course he hasn't scored a Premier League goal this season (or last season), but he still possesses attacking prowess with a credible 6 assists thus far.  Under Mourinho Chelsea were known for their regular maintenance of clean sheets, but AVB's Chelsea have only kept 6 paltry league clean sheets out of 25.  I believe that despite them being under pressure they have a good chance to turn things around and keep a few more clean sheets, especially with the following upcoming fixtures:

Bolton (H)
West Brom (A)
Stoke (H)

The 31 year old is an accomplished international with 93 caps to his name.  At 7.1 Ashley Cole is not cheap (though cheaper than his injured teammate John Terry).  But at least with him you have the peace of mind that he is less prone to be squad rotated than the mercurial likes of his other comrades - Ivanovic, Bosingwa, Luiz or Cahill.  If you already have another Chelsea defender in your team, don't buy Ashley Cole.  But if you are looking to purchase a Chelsea defender and willing to spend a bit, then do consider him.  I only purchased Ashley Cole as a like-for-like replacement for John Terry who according to media outlets is injured for up to eight weeks.  Don't over think it and do ignore Chelsea's recent poor form.  Surely things can only get better for them?

My captain for Gameweek 26 will be Sergio Aguero and my vice captain will be David Silva.

Transfers: John Terry (OUT) / Ashley Cole (IN)

My GW team can be found here within 12 hours of the first Saturday Premier League kick off.

Blast from the past: The Hurricanes

Blast from the past: The Hurricanes (cartoon)

I came across the following recently and thought it may bring about some nostalgic memories among a section of my readership.  For those of a certain age you may remember The Hurricanes cartoon from the mid-1990s (see above).  It was about a football club (or "soccer club" as they would call it) and for some surreal reason was voiced by American voice actors.  To be honest with you, I vaguely remember watching the cartoon on a few occasions (I think they also launched a computer game).  However the cartoon was so obscure that I can't name any of the main characters.  The cartoon's launch coincided with the rise of the English Premier League and also overlapped with USA 94.  Was it a clever ploy to capitalise on the rising popularity of football/soccer in the 1990s? or a random coincidence?  You decide.  Either way the cartoon was phased out very quickly and nothing of the football-cartoon-sort has really come about since.

When will a player's price increase or decrease in FPL?

The answer is: We don't know for sure when.  FPL have their own hidden formula, most likely based (among other things) on the actual demand for a player.  This may then be further calculated via net transfers with set quotas to be met from FPL gamers' transfers to ultimately determine if a player's price will rise or fall.  For instance, if a Premier League footballer has had a really good gameweek his price is likely to rise due to subsequent demand via purchases.  Where as a popularly selected Premier League player suffering from bad form (or a long-term injury) will eventually be transferred out, have decreased demand and almost certainly see his price fall in the immediate short-term.  According to some, price increases/decreases are capped at 0.3 per gameweek.  Courtesy of my friends at FPL Dugout, I was referred to the following website (FISO Crack the Code) which can provide estimated projections* of player price increases and decreases.

http://www.fiso.co.uk/crackthecode.php
*Disclaimer: They are not 100% correct and their projections should only be used as a guideline.

The benefit of knowing of price changes is crucial as it will ultimately affect your team value and your spending power.  Thus you will benefit if a player from your FPL team increases in value.  But you may also be short changed if a player from your FPL team decreases in value.  This isn't to say that a player with a declining price will not bounce back or a player rising in price will not go through a bad patch in the future.  As with all FPL decisions it's all about calculated probability, some luck, a bit of skill on your part and some hunches, etc.  Do bare the above in mind when making FPL transfers in the future.

Gameweek 16 Summary

Man City bounced back from their defeat to Chelsea, by defeating a resurgent Arsenal 1-0 at the Etihad (and keeping a much sought after clean sheet).  Man United and Liverpool also kept clean sheets, albeit away from home, with 2-0 wins respectively.  Tottenham beat Sunderland 1-0 at White Hart Lane as Swansea held Newcastle United to a damp squib 0-0 draw.  West Brom increased the pressure on Steve Kean to be sacked, as they defeated Blackburn Rovers 1-2.  Fulham won 2-0 at Craven Cottage versus Bolton as Stoke found victory away from home.  Finally, Everton were held to a 1-1 draw at home to Norwich; as were Chelsea (surprisingly) away to Wigan.

Ok folks, so I messed up with my recommended player for GW 16.  He didn't play a single minute of the aforementioned 0-0!  But in some ways I am glad he didn't start or do a second half cameo, due to the number of points I got from my bench.  Walker and Enrique got me points from keeping defensive clean sheets, as did Joe Allen from midfield (15 points attained from them: pre-bonus points update!).  The other two players from my first team that didn't play were Ryan Taylor (Newcastle United) and Gareth Bale (Tottenham Hotspurs), due to last minute injuries.  Interestingly, my goalkeeper and defenders all kept clean sheets, where as my midfielders and forwards scored/assisted 0 goals.  With all the above in mind, I have had a mixed gameweek.  It could have been a disaster with lost points on the bench or no points from the bench - but I was fortunate in having a strong bench.  I urge you all to beef up your subs' benches if you haven't already done so, as you could lose points due to squad rotation or injury - primarily due to the end of December/start of January fixture jam!  Despite Ben Arfa not playing I will still keep him in my team for WBA at (home) and Bolton (away).  My trust with him for the next two GWs is primarily due to the fact that I think Pardew needs Ben Arfa's attacking creativity and is bound to use him, subject to common sense prevailing.  I am tempted to do no transfers this GW (a rare non-move on my part), in-order to have an extra free transfer at hand.  However, I am keeping a track of David Silva, trying to find a replacement for Ryan Taylor and possibly ditching Joe Allen.

I will upload my recommended player for GW 17 shortly!  Until then, adios.

Champions League Fantasy Football?

I was recently asked if I played Champions League (CL) Fantasy Football.  The answer is that at this moment in time I only play FPL.  However I did set up a CL team but never changed it.  The question by a fellow reader encouraged me to log into my CL account to see how I was doing - the answer - mediocre at best.  Here's the team that I initially registered:

The above team seems decent enough on paper, but some of those players didn't play or perform during the group stages.  As a result, with the advent of the knockout stages I have made some changes to my CL team.  I doubt I will be managing my new CL team too seriously, I may not even log into that account again - but for your thoughts and benefit, here it is:

Fantasy Premier League Hints - Facebook launch

Fantasy Premier League Hints - Facebook launch!

Dear Readers,

I am pleased to confirm that we now have a Facebook page, which can be viewed on the following:
Fantasy Premier League Hints Facebook page

Please note that the page is currently undergoing development and is in a nascent phase.  Feel free to contribute on the page and "Like" it.

Regards
Chief Pundit & Owner

Solutions to England's national football system

Hi folks. I can't post my GW 10 summary yet, as Stoke are due to play Newcastle United on Monday. Instead, to fill the void, I thought that I should post my "Football Reform Manifesto" that I wrote up after England's lacklustre performance in the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Let me know your thoughts and enjoy...

Solutions to England's national football system:
Football Reform Manifesto - written circa July 2010

Scrap the League Cup

- There is no point in having two domestic cup competitions (the other being the FA Cup). In recent years, even the big teams have treated the League Cup as a training/reserve team exercise. The abolition of the League Cup will ensure that there is a reduction in fixture congestion and as a result there will be less player fatigue.

Reduce the Premier League to 18 teams

- By reducing the Premier League to 18 teams, the football season will finish earlier, by at least an extra 3-4 weeks. This will ensure that players get more rest and time to recover from each match.

Introduce a Winter Break

- This can be easily achieved if either of the first two proposals are implemented. The ideal time for this to occur would be in the last two weeks of December, midway through the season. This concept is not alien to football and is practised elsewhere, such as in Germany.

Increase the number of England (national and B team) friendly matches

- Time and time again we hear of complaints about English players not getting enough time to show their "talent" in an England shirt. As it stands, the limited number of friendlies creates a situation where young players would be lucky to get 10 minutes of match play in a friendly. If they fail to prove their worth, they may not get picked again. With a reduced Premier League and Winter Break, the England national football team could easily play at least two more extra friendly matches per year, in which you can have a mixed squad of players playing against mediocre and good opposition. In addition, the England B team should be revived and used as a regular platform for English players (over the age of 21) that play in the Premier League, but are on the fringes of the England national team.

Invest in Youth Development

- This may seem pretty obvious, but it is often neglected, especially in England. The FA had a "School of Excellence" from 1984-1999, which produced the likes of Michael Owen and Joe Cole (and many other Premier League players). However, no decent alternative exists today. Without something similar and better, the England football team will not progress any time soon.

Introduce a "5-domestic players rule" per match squad

- It would be wrong to put a cap on the number of EU and non-EU players that play in the Premier League. However, it is about time that the FA did do more to nurture domestic talent in the top flight. One way that they could do this would be to introduce a rule that demands the inclusion of at least 5 English players in a match squad. To put this in perspective, that would be 5 players from a first team squad of 16-20. It will ensure that English players get a chance, whilst not undermining the positive presence of foreign players.

Introduce a salary cap

- It is unbelievable to think that a considerable number of English players earn over £100,000 a week, yet fail to deliver on the international stage. The Premier League has the highest average weekly wage per player in the world. Paying high amounts to such players only adds to their egos and prima donna statuses. Consequently, as a common sense and cost effective measure, it would be best to introduce a salary cap (excluding performance related bonuses) that is reviewed every season.

Encourage English born players to play abroad

- Time and time again we see young foreign players leaving their home countries to seek opportunities abroad. Such a hunger is currently not present within England. In fact, it is rare for an English player to ply their trade abroad. Of course, there are rare exceptions that do, such as Owen Hargreaves who started at Bayern Munich as a youth player and then became a full England international. France (and the continent) is only a train ride away for many would-be English professionals that want to develop their game. Instead of complaining about the lack of opportunities abroad, they should be incentivised to go abroad to develop their game, rather than slumping into semi-professional/amateur oblivion.

Transfer control of the England team from the FA to the Premier League

- This is a controversial idea, but the fact of the matter is that almost all English players are contracted to Premier League clubs. It would make more sense for the governing body of the Premier League to take charge of the England team than the FA. The FA should concentrate on the administration of the Football League (Championship to League One), as well as the development of grass-roots football. The Premier League may be money-driven, but it is also results driven, unlike the FA. Therefore a radical shake up in the overseeing of the England team could lead to better success on and off the pitch.

Why do we need change?  Because It's time to learn from past mistakes...