We’re back for our final pod of the preseason joined by FPL Stag, whom we’re also collaborating with on twitter for our Preseason Previews.
Here, it’s not the ten commandments but nine unwritten rules of FPL that we debate the merits of, as well as talking in depth about how rotation may become part and parcel of our game.
We also talk All England, Zombie League and our teams, too.
Enjoy – and all the very best of luck on Gameweek 1!
The January transfer window is almost upon the world of football and with it brings wide speculation about who might be snapped up by each fans respective club. This article will review three possible acquisitions that the Premier league could find in their ranks once the window closes and the potential they bring to the table for FPL managers.
Manolo Gabbiadini (Napoli) – Gabbiadini has become a very sought after attacking player over the past few seasons with Southampton and Everton watching him closely and Stoke City showing serious interest in bringing the talented 25 year old Italian to their club in the January transfer window (on a loan deal). This move to the Premier League could give FPL managersanother very good forward option. Gabbiadini has only started 9 games for Napoli in all competitions this season (three of them being the full 90 minutes) with a further 8 off the bench managing 3 goals and 0 assists. However, a loan move to Stoke could see him starting regularly, with Wilfried Bony out of favour with Mark Hughes. This would allow him to link up with the likes of Joe Allen, Xherdan Shaqiri and Marko Arnautovic which should see both goals and assists rise for all players. In his limited minutes for Napoli this season, Gabbiadini has still managed 3.7 shots per game equating to 8.8 shots for every 90mins he has played. A regular starting spot at could see Gabbiadini flourish meaning good news for FPL managers.
Potential Team Influence rating: 8/10Predicted FPL Price: £7.0-7.5
James Rodriguez (Real Madrid) – James has been touted to exit Real Madrid almost every transfer window since the end of his first season at the club. However, this could finally come to fruition with Chelsea being the front runners from the Premier League to claim his signature. For FPL managers it is a no-brainer that if James plays he should be in your squad. Having made 13 appearances (7 starts) for Real Madrid in the 2016/17 season so far, he has managed a decent return of 1 goal and 4 assists with an 87% pass accuracy. A move to Chelsea would give James even more freedom to roam and link up with other players providing chances, shots, goals and assists. With a chance created for Real Madrid every 25.3 minutes last season (4.67mins faster than second placed Neymar) a move to Stamford Bridge could also see an explosion by Diego Costa in the golden boot race with this sort of service.
Potential Team Influence rating: 7/10Predicted FPL Price: £10
Keisuke Honda (AC Milan) – Sunderland are yet again in the hunt to sign Milan forward Honda. After a reported failed attempt to sign the Japanese international in the summer transfer window, the Black Cats could lure him to the Premier league mid-season giving them a much needed attacking spark. With only 4 players registering goals for Sunderland this season (Defoe, Van Aanholt, Anichebe and Borini), Honda could provide both a goal and assist threat upon his arrival meaning FPL points. Honda has been out of favour at AC Milan with only 96 minutes of time on the pitch across 5 first team appearances this season. That’s not much to go on for FPL managers. Nevertheless, Honda is historically a proven performer with 8 goals and 9 assists in his 78 total Milan caps and an impressive 63% success rate in take on’s in the 2015/16 season from the number 10 midfield position, which is a return to take note of. If a move to Sunderland does manifest, it is likely that Honda, with his wizard left foot, will be on set piece and penalty duty which should entice FPL managers for a possible squad inclusion.
Potential Team Influence rating: 9/10Predicted FPL Price: £6.5-7.0
That is the reaction of the FPL community to Sergio Aguero after the first three gameweeks. After a blistering start to the season, scoring 3 goals and picking up 6 bonus points in his first two matches, it wasn’t long before Aguero’s price rose to 13.1 and all those managers saying “I don’t need Aguero” realised how wrong they were, with his ownership rising well over the 50% mark. However, the Aguueeerrroo!!! soon changed to NOOOOO!!! when he elbowed West Ham defender Winston Reid in the face and was handed a 3 game ban by the FA, meaning that he will miss the next two league matches.
So what do we do with the heaviest of the heavy hitters whilst he’s out? Do we keep him on the bench for two gameweeks or transfer him out with a plan on how to get him back in? Currently priced at 13.0, this amount is far too much to keep on the bench, even if it only is for two weeks. Furthermore, with Aguero’s price expected to drop at least a further 0.2 over the next few weeks, the smart move is definitely to take him out now and buy him back for cheaper later.
So, now the question is who do we bring in for Aguero? I have two words to answer that question.
ROMELU. LUKAKU.
Lukaku and I have a bit of a love-hate relationship, similar to that which the majority of the FPL community has with him. One week, it’s LUUKAAAAKUUUU!!!! and then the next week he’s anonymous, hence the names LukakuWHO? and BLANKaku. There is not doubt that Lukaku has all the attributes needed to be a top class striker (strength, pace, power, heading and a great shot), but he has been plagued by inconsistency in his career to date. However, for some reason, I still believe in Lukaku and am confident that he is the perfect replacement for Aguero.
Despite only starting 1 PL game and 1 EFL Cup game so far this season after returning from the Euros fatigued and with an ankle injury, his underlying stats in his limited game time are very good. In his two starts for Everton this season, he has managed a shot every 20.0 minutes and a shot assist every 45.0 minutes. This highlights his attacking potential. Although he stated in a recent interview that he is not 100% fit but almost there, his attacking stats are still good enough to rank him 2nd among all forwards for shot frequency this season, just behind Sergio Aguero. More recently, he netted a brace for Belgium in their World Cup qualifier against Cyprus, which indicates that he might be hitting form at the right time.
In addition to his excellent attacking stats so far this season, Everton’s extremely favourable fixtures provide Lukaku with a perfect opportunity to announce himself as a heavy hitter. Here is how Lukaku performed against his next 8 opponents last season:
Opponent
Starts
Shots
Goals
Chances Created
Assists
Sunderland
2
7
1
5
2
Middlesbrough
1
3
1
1
0
Bournemouth
2
6
2
3
0
Crystal Palace
2
5
1
4
0
Man City
4
7
1
2
0
Burnley
West Ham
2
10
2
2
1
Chelsea
3
7
2
0
0
These stats are a reminder of what a prolific goal scorer and potent attacker Lukaku can be.
Bringing Lukaku into your FPL team to replace Aguero will provide excellent options to FPL managers. His fixtures provide good short and long term points potential. This is because if Lukaku does not perform over the next few fixtures, managers can do a straight swap and bring Aguero back in for him in GW6. However, if Lukaku hits form, managers may not want to take him out. This provides a chance to downgrade on other heavy hitters such as Hazard or Ibrahimovic if they lose form and then upgrade a mid priced forward to get Aguero back in.
Additionally, there was much speculation over the transfer window that Lukaku would be leaving Everton. However, Everton refused to budge from their asking price of £75m and a move never materialised. Despite all the transfer speculation surrounding him, Lukaku has committed his future to the club and promised to score goals. This may boost his appeal as he will no doubt aim to prove his large price tag this season so that bigger clubs like Chelsea or Manchester United will have no choice but to fork out the cash to land an in form unstoppable Lukaku. Therefore, the fact that he is fully focussed on the club and scoring goals to prove himself bodes well for FPL managers.
Overall, it is clear that Romelu Lukaku is the perfect replacement for Aguero. This is because of his extremely favourable fixtures, past history against his upcoming opposition, current attacking form and the fact that he has a point to prove this season.
Gray vs Negredo- the battle of the 6.5 forwards goes on
Gray to Negredo was the most popular transfer leading up to the gameweek
2 deadline. 52k transferred Andre Gray out of their teams after he
blanked in the first week at home to Swansea. Little did they know the
Burnley striker would assist a goal and open his
Premier League account v Liverpool in Saturday. This left the 10.5% who
kept the faith in Gray rewarded while those who knee-jerked to transfer
Alvaro Negredo in feared the worst going into Sunday's North East derby
between Middlesbrough and Sunderland. A
Negredo blank would be costly. Thankfully for the 18% of managers who
own 'The Beast', he came up with two assists and scored the same amount
of points as Gray due to his 2 bonus points. No doubt the two standout
6.5 strikers from the first two gameweeks will
continue to cause headaches throughout the season.
Liverpool's Problems Remain
After spending £69.1m on new recruits so far, Liverpool have
strengthened greatly this summer, particularly in midfield. While their
notorious defensive issues are yet to be resolved, the question on most
FPL players' lips after Liverpool ran out 4-3 winners
at the Emirates was which of Liverpool's talented midfielders to sign
for your FPL team. Coutinho was the favourite and raised 0.2 in value
due to popular demand after his brace, Adam Lallana had a goal and an
assist and Sadio Mane also impressed with his
goal, though injured in mid-week and was ruled out of the game at
Burnley. Add to that list Giorginio Wijnaldum, who weighed in with an
assist and showed his quality at times last season, though seemingly
forced to play a deeper role for Klopp than at Newcastle
and Firmino, Liverpool's top point scoring player last season. The
quality of these midfielders can be top class as we saw against Arsenal,
but the consistency of all of these players hangs in doubt. Liverpool
in general suffered with inconsistency last season.
Beating Chelsea then then losing to Crystal Palace, losing 3-0 to
Watford and then beating Leicester was the kind of form Klopp's team
were in throughout last season, which could cost you points if they
continue to blow hot and cold. Having been outstanding
in attack against Arsenal, they struggled to break down Burnley's
defence, so the early signs are that they haven't changed.
Aguero and Ibra or bust?
There is beginning to be a recurring theme in FPL this season.
Ibrahimovic + Aguero = success. Like last week, they were the two
highest scoring strikers again. The other premiums have not come close
to the two most expensive players' identical record of 3
goals in two games and maximum bonus points from the first two
gameweeks. Whether this trend continues remains to be seen, but the
forward alternatives are sure to improve. After a slow start, it might
be only a matter of time before Jamie Vardy and Harry
Kane start hitting the net as regularly as last season, so it may not
be best to panic to get Ibrahimovic for a -4 point hit or to wildcard in
order to get both just yet, but another week like the last two and that
might be a viable option as the pair have
already gone up 0.1 in value and continue to increase in ownership.
Miss out on another price rise and they could become difficult to afford
even in a wildcard team.
Gameweek
1 was an interesting start to the season. We saw some surprise packages
that could be potentially good for our FPL team in the
long run. Today I will highlight some of the best buys for Gameweek 2.
First
up, if you are looking for consistent returns from your defence,
consider West Bromwich Albion players. With Tony Pulis style of
play in which he likes to park the bus, West Brom’s defenders are value
for money as they are pretty budgeted. Ben Foster scored a whopping 10
points in the first match of the season and showed why he is one of the
best English goalkeepers around. If you are
looking for a full back providing assist, at only £4.5m, Gareth McAuley
provides good opportunity for assist while Craig Dawson offers goal
scoring threats from set pieces at £5.0m. West
Brom’s next few fixtures are relatively good, taking on Everton, Boro,
Bournemouth, West Ham, Stoke and Sunderland in coming weeks.
Next,
Eden Hazardlooks to continue his strong start of the season against
Watford this weekend. Hazard has shown in previous seasons what
he is capable of, apart from the 15/16 where injury made him have a
pretty bad season. With Chelsea’s good run of fixtures in the next few
game weeks, Antonio Conte’s side look to score big. Hazard is also able
to play as a forward should his team mate Diego
Costa ever get suspended for getting booked. At £10.0m, he is pricey,
but the possible returns he can get you surpasses his price.
Finally,
Manchester United look to be title contenders this season after missing
out for the past couple of seasons. With the addition
of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Paul Pogba and a few others, their squad look
solid and with Jose Mourinho as their new manager, the club is moving in
a new direction. If
you are looking for a midfielder, Anthony Martial (£9.5m) is a good
option as he provides lots of crosses into the box and is able to
cut in from the left and create chances himself. For forwards, Zlatan
Ibrahimovic looks to retain his goal scoring threat with his new team.
He has shown he has what it takes to play in England despite his age. He
is a premium player at £11.5m but I believe
he is a safe long term investment that will bring you returns over the
course of the season.
Those
are my picks for Gameweek 2. Most of them will be good in the long run.
Some of them are budgeted, some are a premium, pick one that
suits your needs for this weekend.
In a rare gameweek where both Vardy and Kane failed to score, if you
owned Zlatan and Kun and captained one of the two in the first gameweek
then chances are you are in the top 200k overall. With budget
midfielders on target and the only clean sheets coming
from budget defences, gameweek 1 panned out in favour of teams with the
most expensive attacking pair.
The pre-season argument against owning both Zlatan and Kun is that the
rest of the team suffers financially. However, 4.5 keeper Ben Foster was
the highest scoring keeper and many 'Aguerovic' owners have him as the
first choice in goal. Gareth McAuley, Jonas
Olsson and Jonny Evans are all 4.5 and kept clean sheets. McAuley is
owned by 10% and Evans is also popular at 8.6%. While these may be mere
back up options for more balanced teams, an attack that costs over a
quarter of your budget may mean some started one
of the pair. Jordi Amat and Stephen Kingsley performed above their 4.0
price tag, although more likely to be bench fodder. Kingsley looks to be
a stand-in for Neil Taylor, who was short on match fitness for the game
at Burnley, but Amat could lay down a starting
place at centre back now Williams has left. At 4.0 he will be good
asset as a starting player in teams if he continues to play, as an
enabler for the likes of Ibrahimovic, Aguero and Hazard.
Mid-Priced Mids Come to the Fore
In midfield, 'Aguerovic' owners who sacrificed the cost of their
midfield for their forward line would have been pleased with the point
scoring of the lesser priced players. 8.0 Coutinho scored a brace at
Arsenal to lead all midfielders. He comes in much lower
than the premiums and could be the pick of the Liverpool mids, but is
yet to reach more than 8 assists or goals in each of his 4 seasons at
Liverpool, which raises concerns over his consistency and Liverpool's
fixtures don't get easier until gameweek 6.
The early bandwagons could be for the mid-priced midfielders who were in
and out of form last season. Adam Lallana has a similarly unspectacular
FPL record to his teammate Coutinho, failing to improve on 9 goals and 9
assists in 2013/14 at Liverpool, yet his
goal at the Emirates will raise his ownership. Game time is touted as
an issue for Lallana with so many attacking players at the club, so Eric
Lamela could be the cut-price midfield answer at the same price. Lamela
scored on the opening day and may have some
managers believe this is the season he can deliver on a regular basis
for Spurs on the back of a strong Copa America with Argentina, in which
he scored twice and a pre-season in which he also bagged a couple and an
assist. Lamela has failed to live up to expectations
when he arrived from Roma in 2013, but looks in faster and stronger
physical shape than he was when he arrived in England. Having ended last
season in fine form, has he finally found his feet at Spurs or will we
see yet more inconsistency?
Xherdan Shaqiri disappointed in terms of goals and assists last season,
but has already opened his account with a free kick against
Middlebrough. He could be yet another past underachiever who has his
breakout.
Redmond Shows Striking Potential
A lot of people were talking about midfielders who might play out of
position in a more advanced role in pre-season, meaning more of a goal
threat. These players are Gerard Deulofeu, Bojan, Nathan Redmond,
Firmino, Alexis Sanchez and Eden Hazard. Of these players,
the standout in the first week was the cheapest, Southampton's 6.0
winger-turned-striker Nathan Redmond. His price-rise is predicted to be
very high, as something of a differential going into the season at
around 5% ownership. He had 4 shots inside the box,
and only denied by good defending from Watford before finally finding
the net. In the striker spot he could hit the ground running.
Differential of the gameweek:
Redmond (6.0), 10pts
Surprise of the gameweek:
Diomande (4.5), 8pts
Fire sale of the gameweek:
Vardy (10.0), 2 points
Kyle Norbury,obsessive
fantasy football manager and have been for many years. Bit of a nerd
when it comes to stats. #TeamIbra.
Follow me, Kyle on Twitter: @SCFCNerd, and subscribe on Youtube @FPLNerd
The Fantasy Premier League season starts long before opening day. Draft day requires preparation, practice and patience - and even then there are plenty of pitfalls which can trip-up even the most experienced FPL draft manager. If you're new to playing draft FPL (or even if you're not), the guide from Fantasy Premier League draft site Togga will give you everything you need to ensure your draft day is the best day of the season - and set you on your path to FPL glory.
Be In It To Win It
Draft can be an endurance game. In a league with 10 managers there will be 160 players drafted by the end. If you're counting on having a certain player available to you in a certain round - only to watch a rival nick them from under your nose. That sends many a manager into a tailspin - grasping for any player just to make a pick. And that is how you end up with
Watch Out: Call it David Moyes Syndrome. Trying to ink a marquee midfielder, but transfer deadline day has arrived? Quick throw gobs of dosh at Marouane Fellaini. It's felled many a manager in their prime, and it can happen to you if you don't have a standby. Targeting Moussa Dembele in Round 7? Keep one eye on Ahmed Elmohamady as potential cover. Otherwise you might panic and draft Bastian Schweinsteiger. And no one wants that.
Simple Fix: For every player you identify to draft, pick a second player you think is of equal value as a back-up. Use Togga's FPL Cheat Sheet as a guide.
You Don't Have to Win Every Trade to Win Your League
This is a vital topic, and one which will have its own post shortly, that often goes overlooked. Every manager would love to trade their fifth midfielder (a Gareth Barry type) for a rivals top forward (hello, Sergio Aguero!), but those deals rarely happen, and shouldn't ever. The key to winning your league is finding value in smaller deals. If you've identified that your team isn't scoring well at the back, it's worth paying a premium to shore-up a leaky defense. If you've drafted well and have a surplus of value from one position, you can afford to trade away Midfield Maestro for Danny Defender knowing that the move makes your starting XI better, even if the two players aren't even value in a vacuum.
Watch Out: If you can't find a simple 1-1 trade or if you keep getting rebuffed by a rival who only wants to trade for your best player, many managers will get worn down. This is the £40,000,001 bid and you shouldn't accept it any more than Liverpool did. Just because you don't need to get the most value in a deal doesn't mean you shouldn't get the most value for your team.
Simple Fix: Once a week look at your opponent's rosters and send one trade offer to each manager. Try offering deals including multiple players where you deal from strength to add depth to weak areas. By making incremental additions to your squad, you'll end the season strong and handle the run-in with the deft touch of Alex Ferguson. Just don't pull a Kevin Keegan - loose lips lose titles. Use Togga's Fantasy EPL app to practice now!
Looking forward to seeing you join the movement and help you launch your Fantasy Draft now!
Ever
wondered what makes the top FPL managers tick? When do they play their
Wildcards? Why do they make their transfers? And how successful are
their captains picks?
Fantasy Premier League is a daily ritual for many, not merely a past-time, but a way of life. With Football Survivor, we’ve created a game which seamlessly fits into the average football fanatic’s day. Each week, each player, picks one team from the Premiership round of fixtures, to win their respective match. If they lose, you lose points, if they win, you don’t. It’s that simple. But there’s a catch… you can only pick each team once. A popular concept amongst many, the office, the university lecture hall, we’ve decided to generate the perfect platform for people to play. For our introductory post, we’ve decided to offer our expert advice on the opening weekend of the Premier League!
The Safe Pick: Hull City v. Leicester City
Will the greatest football story ever told get a sequel? Or will we see Leicester slide down the Premier League table? The Foxes stormed the BPL last season and completed the most unexpected, dramatic and sensational title win in living memory. With unprecedented style and swagger, a team which was almost relegated the season before, smashed their way past Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester City. Highlights included, Jamie Vardy breaking a premier league goals record, scoring in an unbelievable 11 consecutive matches, whilst Mahrez dazzled and terrified defences across the country, epitomised by his sensational solo effort in a 3-1 win at the Etihad Stadium. This summer, N’Golo Kante, arguably Leicester’s most fundamental player, has transferred to Stamford Bridge to line up alongside Conte’s new men. It’ll be interesting to see how the Foxes fare this season in their title defence. However uncertain there success may be, an opening weekend fixture win at newly promoted Hull City, currently without a manager, looks a banker. Certainly, if Morgan, Drinkwater, Mahrez and Vardy are on song, then Hull have no chance.
The Risky Pick: Bournemouth v. Manchester United
It seems strange saying that it is a risk backing Jose Mourinho to win his opening Premier League game. But, there really is no way of knowing how this is going to go. Mourinho brings with him, success, style and a lot of baggage. Chelsea’s pathetic defence of the title last season was largely explained by Mourinho’s poor temperament and stubbornness. Certainly, his treatment of Eva Caneiro, Chelsea’s doctor, earned him little praise and a lot of enemies. Similarly, United were abysmal, last season, finishing 5th. The rigidity of Van Gaal’s system resulted in the lowest number of goals scored by a Manchester United team in any Premier League season. Memphis Depay arrived as one of the hottest prospects in European football, but ended the season being left out of the FA Cup Final squad; perhaps a result of LVG’s anti-creativity style of football. Chants of ‘attack, attack, attack’ would regularly erupt inside Old Trafford, as United fans became as desperate as they were frustrated. This season, things might be drastically different. The arrival of Ibrahimovic, Mkhitaryan, Baily and potentially Paul Pogba, for a world record transfer fee, would spark immense excitement in Manchester. The million dollar question is whether Mourinho can rejuvenate this Untied team to the heights of Sir Alex Fergusson, or whether we are really seeing the steady decline of England’s biggest football club.
