Recent transfers have conspired to shred apart the defensive
templates of FPL teams on the eve of Gameweek 1. Specifically, it’s mid-priced
defenders where the new trouble is. Williams, now of Everton with teammate
Funes Mori and Man City’s Stones all occupy the 5.0 bracket. Stones appears to
be the cheapest entry route into Man City’s starting line-up while the other
two are most likely to be the starting central pairing for the Toffees. FPL
managers expect that both teams will shore up their respective defences under
new management which were previously their Achilles Heels. Williams also
carries the distinction of being known in fantasy circles as a “bonus points
magnet” and Stones is favoured because he’s a young English defender that tries
to pass the ball for a title challenging club.
**Click on the image to zoom in**
The real attraction to Ashley Williams is quite clearly
his bonus points potential. He comprehensively outscored Stones and Mori on
bonuses last season despite being part part of a shaky Swansea defensive unit. Obviously,
most if not all of those bonus points came in the few games that Swansea kept
clean sheets and when Williams scored.
Williams got max BAPs against Watford in the 1-0 win over Watford and
the night he scored in the late 2-1 victory over Arsenal. Why was Williams so
good at winning the bonuses in the Swansea clean sheet games though? Why him
and not Fabianski or Fernandez or whoever else was there? The answer to that
lies in how bonus points are allocated and how often Swansea scored. There were
8 games in which the Swans kept a cleanie where the scored one or no goals. In
one of those, Williams scored the goal. Hence there were 7 games where there
wasn’t many attacking players to be rewarded for goals and assists in BAPs. Meanwhile
defenders were being richly rewarded for successful tackles, high pass accuracy
(so weren’t hoofers), blocks, clearances, interceptions and recoveries along
with their clean sheet. That’s why Williams, the defensive titan and leader in
the middle did so well. Things may not be that straight-forward at Goodison
where Everton’s attacking players should score often and hoover up a lot of
bonus points Williams would’ve got back in Wales.
One of the players who will be putting a vacuum to Williams’
bonus points is his soon to be partner in clean sheets Ramiro Funes Mori. Both
players will benefit from more clean sheets this year. Roberto Martinez proved
himself unable to form a fortress at the back last season but Ronald Koeman won’t
allow that porosity remain. However the above graph shows that Funes Mori poses
a goal threat that his teammate could only dream of. 4 goals last year in only
28 games is huge strike rate for a 5.0 defender. Unfortunately for him, Everton’s
consistent lack of clean sheets (6 in the 28 FM played) and decent scoring at
the other end meant that he rarely got in among the bonuses. I believe that
Funes Mori should be more of a BAPs magnet than his teammate in 2016/17 but only
if he stays disciplined. Both players pick up cautions regularly which could
hamper their chances of picking up bonuses even in tight 1-0 victories as
Coleman and Baines will get preferential treatment in the system for their up-field
play.
John Stones just left Everton for Pep Guardiola’s Man
City and immediately becomes an enticing FPL prospect. His attraction lies in
the team he plays for, not in his own personal contribution as he provides almost
no threat in front of goal (or providing assists for that matter). But Man City’s
defence are hardly trustworthy based on previous seasons. Last term, Joe Hart
was error prone and the cause of his own demise on multiple occasions and their
new signings were pathetically poor. Hence, they were joint 5th on
goals conceded with Southampton on 41. Guardiola has so far failed to fully replace
this unit and it’s impossible to see a complete reversal in their fortunes.
Only compounding the case against Stones, for the present at least, is City’s defensive
injury crisis – they were forced to start Kolarov and Fernando at the back
against Arsenal last weekend. None of this bodes well for selecting Stones
instead of the other options for GW 1.
Conclusion
It seems to me that Funes Mori is the best option among
the 5.0 options for Gameweek 1 so long as he starts. Some uncertainty still
hangs over whether he or Phil Jagielka will partner Williams into the coming
campaign but all indications are that the Argentine will get the nod. He scores
more than either of the others and he should also outscore them on bonuses this
season. In the long term, Stones may prove to be a brilliant route into a solid
City defence but as of now, he does not provide that and should be avoided.
FPLStag is a wannabe FPL genius and tea enthusiast. You can follow the highs and lows of the 2016/17 season on his Twitter feed here.
