Thursday, 14 August 2014

#Flybuy - GW1

"It's back!", I hear very few people shouting.


"Flybuy is back on the FPL Hints blog, giving me an indication on which player to bring into my squad based on the astute knowledge that Fly brings to the FPL party", somebody nearly said.


Well, yes, I'm back. And so is my weekly "FlyBuy" pick. The parameters are somewhat different this season, in that there are no parameters. By that I mean I'm no longer working with only being able to select players based on their clubs league position and restrictive ownership percentages.


However, what remains is that the weekly FlyBuy pick will be based on a players potential for a good points score when that hasn't necessarily been the case based on form, injury lay-off, being out of favour or just generally not necessarily being on your radar as an FPL manager.


So, I will kick you off with a pick based on nothing other than gut feeling.


Last Sunday's Community Shield between Arsenal and Manchester City saw the inclusion of a player who was perhaps a bit of a surprise to some people. Signed by Arsenal in the Summer, it was expected he would not perhaps feature immediately. But with the realisation that Arsene Wenger has given his World Cup winners (Ozil, Mertesacker and Poldi) a bit of an extra break given their efforts in Brazil, he chose to field ex-Saint Calum Chambers in the back four alongside Laurent Koscielny.


Before the game, young Chambers' ownership % sat at 2.8%. At the time of writing today, less than 4 days later, it is 6.1%. So, some of you have already jumped aboard this particular bandwagon.


But surely this is foolish? Mertesacker will inevitably reclaim his rightful spot sooner rather than later, with Chambers only duty being to pick splinters out of his arse on the Arsenal bench? Well, not necessarily. And this is where gut feeling comes in.


Chambers will almost definitely, positively, maybe start on Saturday evening at home to Crystal Palace. Unless Wenger pulls our pants down and starts Mertesacker with no preseason. Which he might. Or he might not. And I don't think he will.


You see, Arsenal then have a UCL tie away in Turkey on Tuesday night. And I think Mertesacker will start in that game. Leaving GW2 for Chambers to come in again to face Everton away at Goodison. Then Arsenal face the return leg versus Besiktas on the following Wednesday night (Mertesacker again) before going to Leicester for GW3. Chambers again.


I predict Mertesacker will definitely regain his place by GW4, but I think Chambers is worth the place in your squad until then. Priced at a bargain £4.5m, even IF he only plays in GW 1 and 2, it'll give you the chance to analyse the form of the other "bargain basement" defenders with a view to bringing them in.


Foolish logic perhaps. But in the true spirit of "Risk v Reward", I'm certainly giving Calum Chambers a chance to prove himself in my own GW1 team. And if he doesn't play? Well, step forward Norman Wisdom off my bench...


All the best for the season. Hope you stay tuned.


Fly


@Meet_the_Gadfly