Tuesday, 31 January 2017

Seb's GW23 Preview (Part 2)

Top Captain Picks

1. Alexis Sánchez vs Watford (home) - £11.9 (TSB 37.6%)

Over Arsenal’s last 3 home games, Sánchez has registered a shot frequency of 1 every 10.8 minutes (8.3 per game) and created 1 chance every 27 mins (3.3 per game). In GW23, he will have the opportunity to continue this form as he will face a Watford side who have conceded nearly 3 goals per game away from home over their past 6 away games. Furthermore, in his 3 matches against Watford, Sánchez has netted 3 goals, with a shot frequency of 3.7 per game, and also provided 2 assists, with 3.3 chances created per game, so he clearly has everything required to be the top captain pick in GW23.

2. Christian Eriksen vs Sunderland (away) - £8.7 (TSB 16.5%)

Tottenham are in blistering goal scoring form at the moment, with 16 goals in their last 5 games, and Eriksen has been central to this, with 6 assists over this period. In comparison, Sunderland’s home defence has been porous, conceding 5 goals in their last 2 games at the Stadium of Light. Also, Eriksen has excelled against Sunderland in the past. In his 4 matches against Sunderland, Eriksen has netted 5 goals, with a shot frequency of 4.3 per game, and also provided 2 assists, with 5.5 chances created per game. Thus, this exceptional record and terrific form bodes well for Eriksen owners in GW23.

3. Zlatan Ibrahimović vs Hull (away) - £11.7 (TSB 43.4%)

Zlatan is another player who has the potential to return a large haul in GW23. Coming up against Hull, who have the worst away defensive record in the league this season, Zlatan will fancy his chances of netting at least a goal. When Man Utd faced Hull in GW3, Zlatan registered 7 shots, and was unlucky not to score, so he will be out to make sure the same thing does not happen again. Moreover, Ibrahimović has provided returns in 3 consecutive home games, which heightens his appeal this GW.

4. Romelu Lukaku vs Stoke (away) - £9.6 (TSB 26.3%)

Despite his high ownership, it is likely that Romelu Lukaku will fly under the radar as a captain pick this GW, but it is equally likely that he will be one of the top point scorers. This is because Lukaku and his side are currently in superb form. Everton are averaging nearly 3 goals per game over the last 5 GWs, and Lukaku himself has been involved in 3 goals and 1 assist during this period, with an average of 3 shots per game. Furthermore, Lukaku has excelled against Stoke in the past, with 3 goals in his past 3 games against them, as well as an average of 3.7 shots per game and 3.3 chances created per game. Therefore, if Lukaku can build on his current form and display the attacking quality which has seen him do well against Stoke in the past, there is no reason why he can’t return a large haul in GW23.

Punt/Differential Picks

1. Nathan Redmond vs Swansea (away) - £5.8 (TSB 5.0%)

Over the past 3 GWs, Nathan Redmond has been one of the stand out players stats wise. Over this period, he has managed a shot frequency of 1 every 23.5 minutes, which is almost 4 per game. He also registered 1 goal and 5 shots inside the box against Liverpool in the EFL Cup Semi Final 1st Leg, which set his side up for the victory. In GW23, he will face the league’s worst defence in Swansea, so he should have plenty of opportunities to turn these impressive stats into FPL returns. It is worthy noting that earlier in the season, Redmond had 4 shots against Swansea and also created 4 chances, so he not only has the potential to perform well, he has shown that he can really trouble the Swans defence.

2. Chris Brunt vs Middlesbrough (home) - £5.0 (TSB 2.9%)

Regardless of the fact that he has been shifted back to left back from left wing, Brunt still has great potential this GW due to clean sheet and goal/assist capabilities.  He will face Middlesbrough, who have the worst attack at home this season, while his side have the 5th best home defence, so a clean sheet is a definite possibility. In fact, West Brom have kept 5 consecutive clean sheets against Boro. Additionally, over the past 2 games where he has played 60+ minutes, Brunt has 2 goals and an average of 10.5 points per game, which promises well for his owners. Also, in his last 3 games against Boro, Brunt has 3 goals, and he netted a brace the last time this exact fixture was played. Hence, Chris Brunt clearly has what it takes to be a sneaky punt captain pick in GW23.  

3. Josh King vs Crystal Palace (home) - £5.3 (TSB 0.7%)

Despite his miserly price tag and ownership, Josh King has the potential to return a large haul this GW. In his return to the starting line up last GW at home to Watford, King netted a goal and registered 4 shots. This performance is very promising, and given that Bournemouth has scored 5 goals in their last 2 home games and averaged 14 shots per game over this period, King should have plenty of chances to reward his owners in GW23.

4. David Silva vs West Ham (away) - £8.6 (TSB 2.1%)

Despite the uncharacteristically poor season that David Silva is having in terms of FPL returns, he has thrived against West Ham. In his 2 matches against the Hammers this season, Silva has netted 1 goal, with a shot frequency of 4 per game, and also provided an assist, with 3 chances created per game. This signals well for Silva owners, especially given his FA Cup performance against Crystal Palace, when he completely dominated the match. Subsequently, if he can continue this form into GW23, Silva has the potential to build on his previous top performances against West Ham.

Star Picks XI

By Sebastian Candido

(Twitter: @_FFM_Seb)