Monday, 2 January 2017

Seb's GW20 Preview

Top Captain Picks

1. Sergio Agüero vs Burnley (home) - 
£12.8 (TSB 20.2%)

Agüero returned from suspension against Liverpool in GW19 but could not inspire his side to a victory. He will be looking to atone for his uncharacteristically poor performance this GW against Burnley. The Clarets have conceded on average 25.83 shots per game against current top 6 opposition this season. As a result, Agüero, who is averaging a shot every 17.5 mins this season, should be able to punish the Burnley defence, just as he did in GW13 where he netted a brace at Turf Moor.

2. Alexis Sánchez vs Bournemouth (away) - £11.9 (TSB 36.6%)

Sánchez seems to be on this list every week, but with form and fixtures on his side, why wouldn't he be? Over the last 2 GWs, he has mustered 17 shots on goal (1 every 10.58 mins) and created 7 chances (1 every 25.71 mins). This GW, he faces a Bournemouth side at The Vitality who are in reasonable form. However, they have conceded 15 goals in their past 7 games, which is on average just over 2 per game. Therefore, Sánchez, who is averaging 9 points per game away from home this season, should be able to carry on with his excellent form and terrorise the Cherries, just as he did in GW13 where he bagged a brace against them.  

3. Kevin De Bruyne vs Burnley (home) - £10.6 (TSB 8.5%)

I know that I already have a Manchester City player on this list in Agüero , but I couldn’t resist placing De Bruyne on it too. Although De Bruyne and Manchester City have failed against teams in the top 4, they have excelled against teams below them on the ladder. This season against lower opposition, De Bruyne has averaged 1 shot every 19.73 mins and has created a chance every 19.29 mins. These stats clearly underpin De Bruyne’s attacking potency. He clearly has the potential to greatly reward his owners in GW20 by dominating a Burnley side who have conceded an average of 25.83 shots per game against opposition in the current top 6.   

4. Matt Phillips vs Hull (home) - 
£5.6 (TSB 12.0%)

After a slow start to the season, blanking in 7 of his first 9 games, Matty Phillips came to life in the subsequent 9 games that followed, only blanking 3 times. It is worth noting however that these three blanks came against Chelsea, Manchester Untied and Arsenal, and that he has not returned a blank against opposition lower on the table than West Brom since GW6. In this 9 game period of form, Phillips has averaged 7.22 points per game, which ranks 3rd amongst all midfielders, only slightly behind Sánchez (7.33) and Eriksen (7.44). So, taking the three blanks against top 6 opposition out of the equation, Phillips is averaging 9.5 points per game over this period. In GW20, Phillips definitely has the ability and form to return the points at home to Hull, who have conceded nearly 3 goals per away game this season.

Differential Captain Picks

1. Andros Townsend vs Swansea (home) - 
£5.9 (TSB 2.1%)

Having started the season poorly under Pardew, Andros Townsend is looking to rediscover the form he showed at the end of last season. Over the past two games, he has taken a massive step in the right direction. Big Sam has reinstated him to his favourite right wing position and he has looked dangerous, mustering 2 shots in each game, registering 1 assist and completing 7 crosses and 8 take ons. Townsend will look to build on this form at home to Swansea in GW20, who have conceded a league high 44 goals this season, and an average of 3.25 goals per game in their last 4. Also, last time Townsend played Swansea (GW34 last season for Newcastle) he registered a goal and assist, as well as 3 shots on target and 3 chances created. Subsequently, Townsend is an excellent captaincy option in GW20 for those looking for a differential.

2. Anthony Martial vs West Ham (away) - £9.3 (TSB 2.5%)

Reinstated to the starting XI against Middlesbrough in GW19, Martial put in a superb performance. He was a constant threat, and netted a goal, as well as registering 3 shots on target, hitting the post and creating 2 chances. This performance should see him keep his place on the left wing in GW20. This GW, he faces West Ham, who have conceded almost 3 goals per game against top 6 opposition this season. Furthermore, Martial’s appeal this GW is heightened by his incredible record against West Ham. In his past 4 games against the Hammers, he has netted 5 goals, which bodes well for FPL managers willing to take a punt on him this GW.

3. Divock Origi vs Sunderland (home) - 
£6.8 (TSB 9.4)

Dropped to the bench in GW19, Origi will probably return to the starting XI this GW against Sunderland at the Stadium of Light. With the return of Philippe Coutinho and full fitness of Daniel Sturridge imminent, Origi will be looking to take his chance so that he can try to cement a starting spot. This GW will provide him with an excellent opportunity to prove his worth. Sunderland have conceded 7 goals in their past 2 games, and are really struggling defensively. Subsequently, Origi should be able to use his pace and trickery to dominate the Black Cats backline, just as he did in GW13 where he netted in his side’s 2-0 win. It is also worth noting that despite no goal in 2 league starts, Origi has only blanked once since his run in the first team began in GW13, registering 4 goals and 2 assists. As a result, I think that Origi may certainly stake his claims for a regular first team position this GW with a big performance.

4. Alex Iwobi vs Bournemouth (away) - 
£5.8 (TSB 1.0%)

For those wanting to captain an Arsenal player in GW20, but chasing points so reluctant to captain Alexis Sánchez, Iwobi is your man. Theo Walcott is expected to miss out again, and there is no guarantee that Özil will be ready either due to the short turn around. Thus, Iwobi is a nailed-on starter at the moment. Over the past 2 matches he has begun to hit some top form. In these 2 matches, he has netted a goal, registered 7 shots (6 inside the box) and created 7 goal-scoring chances for his teammates. Therefore, Iwobi has the form and fixture to excel in GW20.

Score Predictions

MID 1 (Negredo) | LEI 1 (Gray)

EVE 3 (Lukaku, Mirallas, Coleman) | SOU 0

MCI 4 (Agüero x2, De Bruyne, Nolito) | BUR 1 (Gray)

SUN 1 (Defoe) | LIV 3 (Origi, Lallana, Milner)

WBA 3 (Chadli, Phillips, Rondón) | HUL 0

WHU 1 (Antonio) | MUN 2 (Ibrahimović, Martial)

BOU 0 | ARS 3 (Sánchez x2, Iwobi)

CRY 2 (Townsend, Benteke) | SWA 0

STK 0 | WAT 0

TOT 1 (Alderweireld) | CHE 1 (Costa)

Star Picks XI

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By Sebastian Candido

(Twitter: @sebcandido)