Thursday, 12 January 2017

Seb's GW21 Preview (Part 2)

Top Captain Picks

1. Christian Eriksen vs West Brom (home) - £8.6 (TSB 14.5%)

Christian Eriksen has been quite simply exceptional over the past 8 games. Since GW13, he has registered on average 1 shot every 17.37 mins (5 per game) and created a chance every 24.55 mins (4 per game). He has also registered 5 goals and 6 assists during this period. In GW21, Eriksen will face West Brom, who have only kept 1 clean sheet in their past 17 league games. Looking at Erisken’s history against the Baggies, he has registered 12 shots, 6 shots assists and 2 assists in his past 2 games against them. This illustrates how West Brom are a side that Eriksen usually excels against, and given both his form and the form of his side (10 goals in past 3 games), he no doubt has what it takes to be one of, if not the top FPL captain pick this GW.        

2. Junior Stanislas vs Hull (away) - £5.2 (TSB 1.8%)

Despite the low price and ownership, Stanislas definitely has the potential to be one of the top point scorers this GW. Since his return to the starting XI in GW19, he has provided back to back assists in addition to 8 shots (1 every 20.25 mins) and creating 5 chances (1 every 32.5 mins). Furthermore, last time these sides met, Stanislas returned a 21 point haul, where he bagged a brace (5 shots) and an assist (3 chances created). His appeal is further heightened by the leaky Hull defence he will face, as the Tigers have conceded 8 goals in their past 3 games. 

3. Alexis Sanchez vs Swansea (away) - £11.9 (TSB 36.5%)

Although Sànchez does not seem happy at Arsenal at the moment, he still has been providing regular returns to his owners. Shifted back onto the wing to accommodate Giroud up front in GW18, Sànchez has still managed on average just under 7 shots per game from this position, which is extraordinary! Furthermore, Sànchez has been particularly potent away from home, with 6 goals, 2 assists and 42 points coming in his last 4 away games. In GW21, he should definitely be able to punish a Swansea side who have conceded 7 goals in their last 2 home games.

 Punt/Differential Picks

1. Aaron Ramsey vs Swansea (away) - £7.6 (TSB 0.9%)

After an injury hampered first half of the season, Ramsey returned to the Arsenal starting XI in GW20 against Bournemouth and impressed. In this game, he started in his favourite number 10 position instead of the wing, but was forced a little deeper due to the injury to Coquelin. Nevertheless, he was still effective, registering 4 shots, and completing an impressive 89% of his passes in the attacking third. He followed up this performance with another impressive outing in the FA Cup, where he netted 1 goal (3 shots) and completed 102 passes. Given that he is a nailed on starter due to the absences of Cazorla, Xhaxa, Coqeulin and Elneny, Ramsey now clearly has the chance to cement a starting spot and rediscover the form he showed for Wales during the Euros. Arsenal's GW21 match against Swansea will provide the perfect chance for him to do this, and his late runs into the box and intricate passing could see him reward those FPL managers willing to take a punt on him.

2. Michail Antonio vs Crystal Palace (home) - £6.8 (TSB 10.4%)

Despite the poor form of his side, Michail Antonio has recently shown signs that he may be about to rediscover his early season form. Since being removed from right back/wing back in GW18, Antonio has rotated between playing on the right wing or centre forward. This has seen him average 1 shot every 22.3 mins in all completions since then. This bodes well for FPL managers, as Crystal Palace have conceded 33 shots in the past 2 GWs, and if Antonio can build on his promising stats, he may well be in line for a big haul this GW.

3. Andre Gray vs Southampton (home) - £6.2 (TSB 4.7%)

After a spell out of Burnley’s first team due to suspension and poor form, Gray has now cemented his place up front after a string of superb performances. Over the past 3 GWs, he has scored 4 goals (1 shot every 28.6 mins and 3.2 per game), including an outstanding hat-trick against Sunderland. Furthermore, Gray excels when playing at home. This is clearly evident as in his 6 home appearances this season, he has only blanked twice, picking up 5 goals, 2 assists, 6 bonus points and an average 7 points per game. In GW21, he again plays at home, and is up against a Southampton side in poor form, having conceded 9 goals in their last 3 games, and Gray will be looking to take advantage of this fact and continue with his terrific form.

Score Predictions

TOT 1 (Eriksen) | WBA 0

BUR 2 (Gray, Boyd) | SOU 0

HUL 1 (Snodgrass) | BOU 4 (Stanislas x2, Arter, King)

SUN 1 (Van Aanholt) | STK 1 (Crouch)

SWA 0 | ARS 3 (Giroud, Sànchez, Ramsey)

WAT 0 | MID 0

WHU 2 (Antonio, Carroll) | CRY 2 (Townsend, Puncheon)

LEI 1 (Musa) | CHE 2 (Pedro, Costa)

EVE 2 (Mirallas, Lukaku) | MCI 1 (Yaya Toure)

MUN 1 (Ibrahimovic) | LIV 1 (Sturridge)

Star Picks XI

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By Sebastian Candido
(Twitter: @sebcandido)