Thursday, 5 December 2013

Fantasy Football Hints - Gameweek 15




 #REJECT (R):

Nicklas Bendtner (ARS)

His all-time Premier League strike rate is less than 30%.
May have scored midweek but don't be fooled by his "false economy".
With Giroud's form, Bendtner is far from  being Arsenal's first choice striker.

#PUNT (P):

Jonjo Shelvey (SWA)

Scored & assisted in Swansea's last Premier League match.
Without Michu and Bony he will be Swansea's primary attacking threat.
His trademark surging runs can unsettle even the best of Premier League defences.

#HOTPICK (H):

Luis Suarez (LIV)

Scored 4 fantastic goals in his last match.
Without Sturridge he is Liverpool's primary attacking threat.
Suarez's form speaks for itself and it would be hard to not have him in your team.


FPLH's Star Picks:

Vorm

Evra
G. Johnson
B. Davies

Hazard
Ramsey
Y. Toure
Coutinho
Shelvey

Suarez
Giroud

Subs:
Cech
Lukaku
Oviedo
McAuley


FANTASY FORECAST*:

MAN UTD TO BEAT NEWCASTLE (2-0).
CRYSTAL PALAC & CARDIFF TO DRAW (0-0).
LIVERPOOL TO BEAT WEST HAM (2-0).
MAN CITY TO BEAT SOUTHAMPTON (2-1).
CHELSEA TO BEAT STOKE (2-0).
WEST BROM TO BEAT NORWICH (2-1).
SUNDERLAND & TOTTENHAM TO DRAW (1-1).
FULHAM & VILLA TO DRAW (1-1).
ARSENAL TO BEAT EVERTON (2-1).
SWANSEA TO BEAT HULL (2-0).

*NOT TO BE USED FOR BETTING PURPOSES

Tuesday, 3 December 2013

Classic11.com Pundits Cup

As part of our existing partnership with Classic11.com we are pleased to announce some good news.  A prize will now be offered to the winner of the FPL Pundits Cup.  Consequently, the competition will be re-branded as the Classic11.com Pundits Cup.  Come the end of the season, the winning pundit will win a retro England shirt (or equivalent) as supplied by Classic11.com.  The same terms and conditions apply on the new prize of this competition as they do with our other competitions' prizes.  You can follow the Classic11.com Pundits Cup through the page located on the top-right of this blog.

Regards,

#CalledIt Differential Pick - GW14


How can I describe last week's #CalledIt? Well, as some of you might know, I used to be a basketball player back in the days and one of my favorite movies during the time when I still thought that I could make it to the NBA (khem, khem, well, or at least to the first national league in Slovenia) was "White men can't jump" featuring Woody Harrelson and Wesley Snipes. It is a great movie and one I enjoyed immensely. All 15 or 20 times I watched it. Now, there are some "off" moments in the movie (Like Woody dunking. In a game. From an alley oop. With both hands. Eeeerrrrrrrr, I don't think so. And Wesley's 720 around his waist for the assist. What?), but overall it's a great movie. 

There is a sequence in the movie where Woody hits four shots in a row and smiling his a** off turns to Wesley saying something like: "Four in a row! This is like the luck of the Irish, only I am not Irish." And this is exactly how I felt with Walcott. In the 86th minute I switched off the TV in the moment of clarity (I will not torture myself with false hope anymore), tweeted "I give up.", only to switch the TV on again for my daughter to watch Princess Sofia. 

So I sit there watching Sofia (and feeling sorry I didn't go with Negredo as my pick) when my phone started buzzing like hell. WTH? I disregard it, but it goes on and on. And I check it and it is full of Twitter mentions. The first one that says "Asysta! :)" comes from FantasyPL. Could it be? I don't even want to let myself think it is possible. So I start checking all the other tweets and YES, Walcott seems to have gotten the assist in the 1 measly minute he was afforded! Yeah! This is what I call the luck of Irish!

Anyway, back to this GW. I am sad to even have to feature Juan Mata here, because he is my all-time favorite PL player. I will not comment on managing skills of a certain "chosen one", but this is a real shame. If he gets playing time, you know he is good for it. That's all you need to know. He is class. Juan Mata, #CalledIt for GW14.

GW14 FPL #JackInTheBox

Well, imagine my relief that Norwich City have climbed out of the bottom 5.  They've been in the bottom 5 two out of the four times I've published this column, and I picked a player from their squad each time, coming up empty and empty again.  With any luck they'll stay among the top 15 squads and leave me be for a good while.

Having them gone doesn't make my job any easier though, as the bottom 5 are in their respective positions for a reason; namely a vast shortage of goals.  Combined, the bottom 5 squads in the EPL average less than a goal a game over the past 6 gameweeks, not exactly the track record you'd like.  But then again, it's what you'd expect from squads in their unenviable position, right?

So for the much anticipated mid-week gameweek, we have Palace at home vs. West Ham, Sunderland home to Chelsea, Fulham home to Tottenham, and Cardiff away to fellow bottom 5 dweller Stoke City.  If you haven't figured it out by now, any time 2 of the bottom 5 clubs square off against one another, it's a magnet for my attention.  And this week we see the 16th place Potters at home against the 17th place Bluebirds.  Let's put our focus there and see what these squads have to offer.

I have developed quite a liking for this Cardiff City side but as impressed as I have been with their recent run of fixtures, including the recent loss to top-side Arsenal (where I thought they played respectably), I am more impressed with Stoke City's production over the past few weeks, not to mention the fact that Stoke is unbeaten at home this term and other than last week's drubbing at the hand of Everton and a close 2-3 loss to Manchester United at Old Trafford in gameweek 9, they have 3 draws and a victory over Sunderland in their past 6 fixtures.

FPL GW14 #JackInTheBox:  CHARLIE ADAM

Having handed my #JackInTheBox armband to Crouchy just two weeks ago, I am resisting the urge to nod at Jonathan Walters this week, and am instead handing the GW 14 #JackInTheBox honours to Charlie Adam.  Assuming he keeps his starting spot in the hole behind Crouchy, I expect him to take advantage of his recently improved fitness and cause some trouble for the visitors.  With spot kicks and free kicks in his arsenal, there will be many opportunities and possibilities for him to dazzle the home crowd with an inspired performance. 

With ownership at a mere 0.5%, there's much to be gained and not much to be lost by choosing this former Blackpool/Liverpool goal-creating, free kick specialist for your FPL squad.  At 5.6m he could very well be on an upward trend that will repay your investment in spades as he solidifies his position behind the striker and dishes out some assists to Crouch and Walters, both of whom are also searching for the form to match their potential.

Come on Charlie, let's see you put that lethal left foot of yours to good use.  I'll be cheering you on from here.

As an added bonus, please enjoy this clip of Charlie doing a great job explaining why he likes to read and what some of his favourite books are.  Edge of your seat kinda stuff hand picked just for you...because you're crazy about FPL and deserve it.



Looking forward to hearing tales of green arrows galore....enjoy the mid-week gameweek all of you FPL crazies.

Cheers,

Walt

Monday, 2 December 2013

Chief's FPL Team - Gameweek 14

Disclaimer: *FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will most likely be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter account.



NO TRANSFERS

I had Ozil. I had Ramsey. I had Rooney. I captained Aguero... and he had a paltry 1 point game!  GW13 started stupendously for me when my Arsenal contingent bagged me lots of points.  Alas, all that was missing was the cherry on the cake - captain's innings - but it wasn't to be and my sub3 was R Bennett who bagged 8 points.  Despite my team scoring 65 points on average during the last 6 Gameweeks, I am far from content.  I have yet to experience the "perfect" GW this season (captaining the highest points scorer + the rest of team doing fantastic).  I guess it is something still to aim for.  Getting a ton would be nice too.

As you all should know by now, GW14 is starting on Tuesday to accommodate for the annual Premier League fixture jam.  I was tempted to tinker with my team.  But it seems fine on paper and I wouldn't mind the free transfer for the GWs ahead.  I think a lot of the regular FPL popular picks won't play a full match in GW14.  As a result, it's best not take any transfer hits for such an unpredictable Gameweek.  I have decided to captain Suarez, despite him firing blanks on Sunday (+ no Sturridge).  Liverpool need a win against Norwich to stay in contention as title challengers.  Suarez as the sole goal threat is surely a favourite to score.  Then again, the Aguero fail on Sunday doesn't bode well for me, but I will take my chances.  I just hope Townsend doesn't bite me from the bench!

How Do You Solve A Problem Like...Arsenal's Midfield?

Is it a problem? I would argue "yes". And in truth it isn't just the midfield, it's the whole bloody Arsenal team! The problem in hand is one I'm guessing most - if not all - of us are struggling with; WHICH three players to pick from a high points scoring team.

I will concentrate on the midfield specifically, but let's quickly look at the other positions that are no doubt influencing your decision making:

With Arsenals normally leaky defence tightening up in recent weeks (4 out of 5 clean sheets with only the 1-0 loss to Man Utd to break the run) it is tempting to include at least one of the Arsenal back line in your team. They do have two home games in a row coming up, (Hull & Everton) but then go to Man City in GW16 and face Chelsea at home in GW17.

Szczesny is 2nd in the overall points table for goalkeepers. Mertesacker is 7th in the overall points for defenders. Koscielny, Gibbs and Sagna sit in 19th, 20th and 28th position respectively. All of these are displaying good form and are worth considering for your back line.

Giroud is still hanging around the top of the leaderboard for strikers, ahead of Suarez and just below Aguero and Rooney.

But why "waste" a place in your team with a goalkeeper, defender or striker when Arsenal have a midfield that is - and could continue to be - an FPL goldmine?

Ramsey, Ozil, Walcott, Cazorla, Wilshire, Arteta, Flamini, Rosicky, Gnabry.


Well, ok, let's discard the last 3 - although Flamini did come on in GW13 and score a great goal. This is the exception, definitely not the norm for him!

That still leaves 6 players that would walk into most PL sides, and who are currently, or have the potential, to score big over the next half a dozen or so GW's when squad rotation is almost an inevitability.

So, who do you pick?

It's impossible not to start with Aaron Ramsey. Who could have predicted what a season he was going to have?!? He has already scored 8 and assisted 4 this season, compared to scoring 7 and assisting 3 during the previous 5 seasons COMBINED. Available for £5.5 million at the start of this season, he will now cost you a staggering £7.4 million and rising weekly. But why am I telling you this? You already own him right? Well, not everybody. Admittedly, an astonishing 60.3% of all FPL managers do, but some of you are still holding out (I'm looking at YOU @matejp23!)

Ramsey is head and shoulders above all other midfielders in the FPL at the moment with an overall score of 94 points (second only to Aguero with 100) and is 5th in the Form table with an average return of 6.7 points per game. He is this years Gareth Bale! What more evidence to you need! Buy now, or forever curse your stubbornness to conform!

Moving on then, you could go for Ramsey's more expensive sidekick, Mesut Ozil. The master of assists with 7 already this season (Hazard comes in second with 5) and 2 goals to his name. Inexplicably, managers have been rushing to offload him recently because he had a couple of poor points returns in GW11 and 12. In fact, nearly 200,000 of you have bombed him out since GW10, despite a decent points return in GW13. This has seen his ownership percentage drop to 28.1% - still the 4th highest of all midfielders. He sits at 6th in the overall points table with 64 points, with an average return of 5.3 points. Personally, I strongly suspect the hurry to sell him is down to the fact that managers have realised that they must find a way to squeeze in Aguero/Suarez/Rooney (or certainly at least two of them). Sacrificing Ozil is probably the only way to do this. For those of you with the cash, you could now pick up a relative bargain. The rush to sell Ozil has seen his price drop from a peak of £10.8 million in GW10, to £10.3 million at the time of writing.

The alternative is to take a calculated risk on what is still (at the time of writing) a great differential. The return to action of Theo Walcott. Missing from GW5 to GW11, he returned for a 21 minute substitute appearance against his old club Southampton in GW12. Picked on this site as Matej's "Called It" for GW13, this looked like it was going to backfire when he was again on the bench and only came on for the dreaded 1 minute cameo. However, this was just enough time for him to provide an assist for Ramsey, a points return of 4, and a 'get out of jail' card for Matej!

In all seriousness though, this could just be the differential you are looking for. His return to the starting line-up could reduce the pressure on Giroud and see Walcott shouldering some of the goal-scoring burden. His ownership is currently at a meagre 3.8% and he costs a relatively cheap £9.1 million. Under 3000 managers have put him back in their squad since his return to action, so is this a risk or a nailed on certainty to jump onboard before everyone else does? Depends how desperate you are to make up some ground I guess...

The next option for you is last season's player of the year (for Arsenal), Santi Cazorla. The Spanish maestro hasn't really picked up where he left off unfortunately. Missing from GW4 to GW7, his only goal so far this season came in GW10 against Liverpool. One assist is also poor, especially when compared to last seasons return of 12 goals and 13 assists. But he is now getting game time, albeit only an average of 70 minutes. If he finds his form he could yet recapture the points return of last year. A decent differential, but I would say riskier than Walcott. He is currently owned by 2.2% of you, but has only returned 31 points to date. The other thing to put you off is his high price of £9.6 million - the second highest overall, level with Yaya Toure and ahead of Eden Hazard.

This brings us onto Jack Wilshire. For a player who is rated so highly (alledgedly) I personally think the only consistency he shows is to annually underachieve as an FPL player. Low goals return, low assists, low points. Currently sat on 34 points with a couple of goals and 1 assist, he is owned by 6.6% of you. Quite high I thought. Again, probably by some undeserved reputation not borne out by fact. Surprisingly, 9634 managers bought him in for GW13, despite absolutely no evidence to suggest he was likely to do anything. Oh wait - he scored twice against Marseille in the Champions League four days previously! One of my personal rules in FPL is to TOTALLY DISREGARD what a player does in Europe, or for that matter at International level for their country. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.

Your final option is Mikel Arteta. He missed the first 4 GW's but since his return to the starting line-up from GW7 onwards, he tends to complete 90 minutes more often than not. However, a return of 1 goal and no assists is pretty rubbish for a player that costs £6.8 million. Still, historically he provides about half a dozen goals a season, and the same number of assists so maybe worth a punt if you are still searching for that elusive differential. I predict he will do well over the hectic Christmas period, but would I be willing to put him in my team? Not a chance! 1.3% of you seem to think he's worthy of a place in your squad though.

So, in summary, on current form you are probably looking at the League Champions*. So surely it's worth finding space for the maximum number of three in your starting XI? My personal view is that Giroud is finding it tough up front of his own, but Walcott could release some of that pressure. Walcott is certainly a bit of business I am looking at doing in the next few GW's.

There is a school of thought out there that it is "dangerous" to have two players from the same club in the same position. To that I would say Suarez/Sturridge, Lovren/Fonte, Hazard/Oscar?

My own team currently has Koscielny, Ozil and Ramsey in it. I admit to being one of those above mentioned managers who has agonised over ditching Ozil for Rooney, but his GW13 performance just confused me more than ever! Ramsey is an absolute "must have" and has been since GW4. If you didn't have Gareth Bale last year, chances are you didn't finish very high come the end of the season.
Enough said.

How do you solve a problem like Arsenal? Look at the stats, decide if you need a differential or if you can afford to play safe, and for the love of God...buy Ramsey before it's too late!!!!

*I do not think Arsenal will be League Champions!

@Meet_the_Gadfly

GW13 In Review


Fantasy Football Hints - Gameweek 14



 #REJECT (R):

John Ruddy (NOR)

Facing a Liverpool team that need a bounce-back win.
Norwich have conceded 16 goals on their travels from 6 games.
Ruddy has only kept 4 clean sheets this season - only 1 of which was away.


#PUNT (P):

Danny Welbeck (MNU)

Assisted a goal in his last Premier League outing.
With Van Persie not 100% fit he is very likely to be involved.
Despite shaky form, United are scoring 2 goals on average at home.

#HOTPICK (H):

Luis Suarez (LIV)

The Reds have a good 13/14 home record; scoring 2+ goals on average.
Suarez has scored 9 and assisted 4 from 8 Premier League games thus far.
Liverpool will be looking to catch up at the top after their shock defeat to Hull.


FPLH's GW Star Picks:

Szczesny

Lovren
G. Johnson
Terry

Hazard
Ramsey
Lallana
Coutinho

Rooney
Suarez
Giroud

Subs:
Pantilimon
Nasri
Shaw
Evra

FANTASY FORECAST*:

PALACE & WEST HAM TO DRAW (0-0).
ARSENAL TO BEAT HULL (2-0).
LIVERPOOL TO BEAT NORWICH (3-0).
MAN UTD  TO BEAT EVERTON (3-2).
SOUTHAMPTON TO BEAT VILLA (1-0).
STOKE & CARDIFF TO DRAW (1-1).
CHELSEA TO BEAT SUNDERLAND (2-0).
SWANSEA & NEWCASTLE TO DRAW (0-0).
TOTTENHAM TO BEAT FULHAM (2-1)
MAN CITY TO BEAT WEST BROM (2-0).

*NOT TO BE USED FOR BETTING PURPOSES