Fantasy Premier League Tips: Strikers for Gameweek 24

Drop

Danny Welbeck

After missing four Premier League matches for The Gunners, the former Manchester United forward is declared fit to join the travelling squad to White Hart Lane this weekend. Arsene Wenger would be cautious on giving Welbeck a start after his medical concerns, moreover strike partner Olivier Giroud in on spectacular form, hence there is no desperation to forcefully field the 24-year old finisher. Welbeck is widely commended by Arsenal fans for his boundless energy to work from top to bottom of the pitch, conversely hasn’t been the finest finisher, particularly in one-on-one situations. He may get some playing time nearing the end of the match but should be on the bench against Tottenham Hotspur.

Punt

Jermain Defoe

The England international who made most of his name with Londoners, Tottenham Hotspur, alarmed the league of his return with an easy tap in goal against Burnley. No doubt his immense premier league experience will lend a helping hand for the Black Cats who are four points away from the drop zone. Over the years, Defoe had the ability to surpass defenders with pace plus quick feet, yet now at 32-year old, it might be just too much to ask for. In addition, Defoe may not run 90 minutes on the pitch as fellow strikers Connor Wickham, Steven Fletcher and Danny Graham are also highly admired by Gus Poyet. This weekend, Sunderland travel to the Liberty Stadium to face Swansea City who would be thriving in confidence after a narrow 1-0 victory over Southampton. Ashley Williams and his defensive co. are relatively doing well at this back this season, nine clean sheets. Therefore, if the former Spurs forward starts, he needs to outcast his A game to justify his worth once again.

Hot

Daniel Sturridge

What Mario Balotelli failed to do in 12 matches, the former Chelsea and Manchester City striker accomplished in the matter of 12 minutes, scoring a goal after returning from a lengthy injury spell. It was the moment all Merseyside Red fans were waiting for, finally a brilliant out-and-out striker completes the team. The England starlet has a thunderous left foot and dashing pace to offer nightmare for defenders. It’s a rumbustious weekend for Sturridge and his team as they travel to Goodison Park for the exhilarating Merseyside Derby. Everton are somewhat struggling to retain this inspiring form last season yet earned a noteworthy triumph over Crystal Palace last weekend. Each and every Liverpool fans will be placing high hopes on the 25-year old as he has declared of being fit to start. Solid contender for the fantasy premier league.

Star Picks

Harry Kane – The phenomenal wonder-kid of Spurs bagged a brace against West Brom, adding his goal tally to 10 this campaign.

Loic Remy – As Diego Costa continues to serve his 3-match ban, the Frenchman will once again lead the line against Aston Villa this weekend.

Sergio Aguero – The influential finisher of The Citizens has notched 14 goals this season.

Robin van Persie – The Dutchman retained his scoring boots against Leicester City last weekend.

Olivier Giroud – A sure-starter for The Gunners, two goals and a single assist in the previous two matches.

“Disclaimer: This article represents the writer’s point of view, not FanXT. Readers discretion is advised.” 

FPL Performance, Stats & Analysis (Dolphinomics)

Picking players, making transfers and choosing captains in fantasy football is hard enough at the best of times but in a season which has seen bizarre, unpredictable and frantic results and action, it would seem that fantasy football is even harder this season. With this in mind, just like in real football management, every manager should look to seek to utilise every resource at their disposal in any way they can to maximise their team’s performance.

Stats can be a big help and indication as to how teams perform throughout a season, in previous seasons and more specifically home and away.

Football is dynamic in some ways yet simple in others, ultimately there can only be three outcomes in a football match; a home win, a draw or an away win. This can and should be a factor when choosing players to boost your team’s game week score. As with real life football, the possibilities are endless therefore there are more windows of opportunity in fantasy football to pick up points from players regardless or the score or the result. It is for this reason that variation and balance in fantasy football starting line ups and on the bench is vitally important, in terms of team and club representation as well as getting the balance right economically.

Value, Economics, Efficiency, Transfers, Selection, Squad management & Rotation

Getting the balance right in selling and buying players can be difficult in fantasy football with the amount of games this hectic time of year, where the games are coming thick and fast (8 rounds of games starting from 30^th November to January 1^st) Managing your squad, not just team, is massively important given not only the sheer amount of games at this time of year but also the injuries that can and do occur.

Fantasy football in some ways is a reflection of real football. In order to succeed, you need to treat your team like a real team and act like a manager and/or a chairman. Being efficient in the transfer market is important to increase your points total and ultimately contribute towards your final standings in your friend’s leagues and other leagues. The great thing about finding ‘bargains’ is that they free up funds for transfer kitty as well as offering your squad nice ‘options’. Horses for courses could be a useful tactic at this time of year, admittedly it is a tricky and risky strategy but can be very useful in the long run if executed correctly.

Stats can be very useful. They can be very telling but also can be deceiving, therefore patience, concentration and context should be used when looking to anticipate or predict results, scenarios and scorers. However, they are well worth using and hopefully the following stats can help boost your fantasy football performance.

General

Stoke have conceded more goals (20) than scored goals (15) in the Premier league this season.

Manchester City are the league’s highest scorers in the Premier League (47).

Kun Aguero has scored 13 of Manchester City’s 47 league goals.

Manchester City’s league goals and assists have been spread widely across the team/squad.

Liverpool are the second highest scorers in the league (39).

Home & Away

Manchester City, Everton and Chelsea are the only two teams in the Premier League to remain unbeaten at home.  Newcastle United have yet to draw a single game away from home; their 8 away games have either been won (4) or lost (4).  Aston Villa have lost less games away from home and conceded less goals on the road than at Villa Park.

The 3 Essentials of Fantasy Football

Stop goals (clean sheets) - Create goals (assists) - Score goals

I look closely at players and teams performances, results and form in keeping clean sheets, getting assists and the amount of goals they create. However, just because top quality players have a history of dazzling in previous seasons and games does not mean that they’ll do it all the time. There have been key examples of this so far this season most notably the more expensive players such as Juan Mata, Santi Cazorla, Leighton Baines, Miguel Michu have struggled to find their feet quite the same way as they did in the 2013/14 season.

It must be stressed that these players remain top quality players and at any given moment and win a game on their own but it would seem that for different reasons just have not been able to perform quite as good this season. The following factors could explain why:

New managers and different styles of play.

New signings – changing their role in the team.

Tactics – managers being more weary of opposition players.

More competitive league.

Forms, Runs & Other

Prior to facing Hull, Southampton had only conceded 4 goals in the Premier League but have not kept a clean sheet since beating Fulham in October (2-0). This is a great example of how form changes, also a tough run of games for the Saints against Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea could be part of the explanation for conceding more goals. Southampton have now conceded 15 goals in the league. Could the absence of Boruc and Clyne also being affecting the change in form?

Form is temporary? Or Class is permanent? Or Somewhere inbetween?

Naturally there is a desire to get as many class players in our team as possible but perhaps it could be that having too many quality players is counter-productive as well as being economically damaging.

Last season’s top assister Juan Mata has been rotated in and out of Mourinho’s new Chelsea side. Whilst the new signings have not only kept him out of the side but have meant he does not quite have the same role and ultimately influence when he does get game time.

Leighton Baines created more chances than any other player last season.  But he has only created 15 chances in the Premier League this campaign under new manager Roberto Martinez. The former Wigan man is still worth considering either keeping in your squad or buying (back) as he nears fitness, not only because of the outstanding threat he possesses on set pieces – direct free kicks, in-direct free kicks, penalties and corners – but given how solid Everton have been defensively. The Blues defence has been very solid and has picked up several clean sheets this campaign.

Oddly enough, despite being injured this month and not having played a Premier League game since scoring against Everton (3-3) on November 23^rd  (GW 12), Daniel Sturridge is still currently the league’s 3^rd top scorer with 9 goals, all of which came in 9 different games. Despite appearing to be an odd stat, it is perhaps reflective of what a strange season it has been and perhaps a sign of the inconsistency or lack of quality of some of the attacking players in the league this season.

How Do You Solve A Problem Like...Arsenal's Midfield?

Is it a problem? I would argue "yes". And in truth it isn't just the midfield, it's the whole bloody Arsenal team! The problem in hand is one I'm guessing most - if not all - of us are struggling with; WHICH three players to pick from a high points scoring team.

I will concentrate on the midfield specifically, but let's quickly look at the other positions that are no doubt influencing your decision making:

With Arsenals normally leaky defence tightening up in recent weeks (4 out of 5 clean sheets with only the 1-0 loss to Man Utd to break the run) it is tempting to include at least one of the Arsenal back line in your team. They do have two home games in a row coming up, (Hull & Everton) but then go to Man City in GW16 and face Chelsea at home in GW17.

Szczesny is 2nd in the overall points table for goalkeepers. Mertesacker is 7th in the overall points for defenders. Koscielny, Gibbs and Sagna sit in 19th, 20th and 28th position respectively. All of these are displaying good form and are worth considering for your back line.

Giroud is still hanging around the top of the leaderboard for strikers, ahead of Suarez and just below Aguero and Rooney.

But why "waste" a place in your team with a goalkeeper, defender or striker when Arsenal have a midfield that is - and could continue to be - an FPL goldmine?

Ramsey, Ozil, Walcott, Cazorla, Wilshire, Arteta, Flamini, Rosicky, Gnabry.

Well, ok, let's discard the last 3 - although Flamini did come on in GW13 and score a great goal. This is the exception, definitely not the norm for him!

That still leaves 6 players that would walk into most PL sides, and who are currently, or have the potential, to score big over the next half a dozen or so GW's when squad rotation is almost an inevitability.

So, who do you pick?

It's impossible not to start with Aaron Ramsey. Who could have predicted what a season he was going to have?!? He has already scored 8 and assisted 4 this season, compared to scoring 7 and assisting 3 during the previous 5 seasons COMBINED. Available for £5.5 million at the start of this season, he will now cost you a staggering £7.4 million and rising weekly. But why am I telling you this? You already own him right? Well, not everybody. Admittedly, an astonishing 60.3% of all FPL managers do, but some of you are still holding out (I'm looking at YOU @matejp23!)

Ramsey is head and shoulders above all other midfielders in the FPL at the moment with an overall score of 94 points (second only to Aguero with 100) and is 5th in the Form table with an average return of 6.7 points per game. He is this years Gareth Bale! What more evidence to you need! Buy now, or forever curse your stubbornness to conform!

Moving on then, you could go for Ramsey's more expensive sidekick, Mesut Ozil. The master of assists with 7 already this season (Hazard comes in second with 5) and 2 goals to his name. Inexplicably, managers have been rushing to offload him recently because he had a couple of poor points returns in GW11 and 12. In fact, nearly 200,000 of you have bombed him out since GW10, despite a decent points return in GW13. This has seen his ownership percentage drop to 28.1% - still the 4th highest of all midfielders. He sits at 6th in the overall points table with 64 points, with an average return of 5.3 points. Personally, I strongly suspect the hurry to sell him is down to the fact that managers have realised that they must find a way to squeeze in Aguero/Suarez/Rooney (or certainly at least two of them). Sacrificing Ozil is probably the only way to do this. For those of you with the cash, you could now pick up a relative bargain. The rush to sell Ozil has seen his price drop from a peak of £10.8 million in GW10, to £10.3 million at the time of writing.

The alternative is to take a calculated risk on what is still (at the time of writing) a great differential. The return to action of Theo Walcott. Missing from GW5 to GW11, he returned for a 21 minute substitute appearance against his old club Southampton in GW12. Picked on this site as Matej's "Called It" for GW13, this looked like it was going to backfire when he was again on the bench and only came on for the dreaded 1 minute cameo. However, this was just enough time for him to provide an assist for Ramsey, a points return of 4, and a 'get out of jail' card for Matej!

In all seriousness though, this could just be the differential you are looking for. His return to the starting line-up could reduce the pressure on Giroud and see Walcott shouldering some of the goal-scoring burden. His ownership is currently at a meagre 3.8% and he costs a relatively cheap £9.1 million. Under 3000 managers have put him back in their squad since his return to action, so is this a risk or a nailed on certainty to jump onboard before everyone else does? Depends how desperate you are to make up some ground I guess...

The next option for you is last season's player of the year (for Arsenal), Santi Cazorla. The Spanish maestro hasn't really picked up where he left off unfortunately. Missing from GW4 to GW7, his only goal so far this season came in GW10 against Liverpool. One assist is also poor, especially when compared to last seasons return of 12 goals and 13 assists. But he is now getting game time, albeit only an average of 70 minutes. If he finds his form he could yet recapture the points return of last year. A decent differential, but I would say riskier than Walcott. He is currently owned by 2.2% of you, but has only returned 31 points to date. The other thing to put you off is his high price of £9.6 million - the second highest overall, level with Yaya Toure and ahead of Eden Hazard.

This brings us onto Jack Wilshire. For a player who is rated so highly (alledgedly) I personally think the only consistency he shows is to annually underachieve as an FPL player. Low goals return, low assists, low points. Currently sat on 34 points with a couple of goals and 1 assist, he is owned by 6.6% of you. Quite high I thought. Again, probably by some undeserved reputation not borne out by fact. Surprisingly, 9634 managers bought him in for GW13, despite absolutely no evidence to suggest he was likely to do anything. Oh wait - he scored twice against Marseille in the Champions League four days previously! One of my personal rules in FPL is to TOTALLY DISREGARD what a player does in Europe, or for that matter at International level for their country. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.

Your final option is Mikel Arteta. He missed the first 4 GW's but since his return to the starting line-up from GW7 onwards, he tends to complete 90 minutes more often than not. However, a return of 1 goal and no assists is pretty rubbish for a player that costs £6.8 million. Still, historically he provides about half a dozen goals a season, and the same number of assists so maybe worth a punt if you are still searching for that elusive differential. I predict he will do well over the hectic Christmas period, but would I be willing to put him in my team? Not a chance! 1.3% of you seem to think he's worthy of a place in your squad though.

So, in summary, on current form you are probably looking at the League Champions*. So surely it's worth finding space for the maximum number of three in your starting XI? My personal view is that Giroud is finding it tough up front of his own, but Walcott could release some of that pressure. Walcott is certainly a bit of business I am looking at doing in the next few GW's.

There is a school of thought out there that it is "dangerous" to have two players from the same club in the same position. To that I would say Suarez/Sturridge, Lovren/Fonte, Hazard/Oscar?

My own team currently has Koscielny, Ozil and Ramsey in it. I admit to being one of those above mentioned managers who has agonised over ditching Ozil for Rooney, but his GW13 performance just confused me more than ever! Ramsey is an absolute "must have" and has been since GW4. If you didn't have Gareth Bale last year, chances are you didn't finish very high come the end of the season.
Enough said.

How do you solve a problem like Arsenal? Look at the stats, decide if you need a differential or if you can afford to play safe, and for the love of God...buy Ramsey before it's too late!!!!

*I do not think Arsenal will be League Champions!

@Meet_the_Gadfly

Adios Carlos - A Fond FPL Farewell?

You've probably read the news by now. Little Carlitos "I don't want to warm-up" Tevez has agreed a move to Italian giants Juventus because "they wanted him more" than AC Milan did. He leaves behind a newly reorganized Manchester City squad that drove FPL managers bonkers last year as crazy-man Roberto Mancini played musical chairs with virtually every position on the pitch.

Personally, Mancini scared me away from so many City players during #FPL season that Tevez's move away came as a breath of fresh air to me when I heard everything was finalized. After initially admiring the work rate and tenacity Tevez showed following his move to Manchester United and the way he "stood up" to Sir Alex Ferguson when things went south and he flew the coop across town to City, it gradually dawned on me during his multiple excursions on the wrong side of sanity that it wasn't Sir Alex who had been the problem; it was Carlos.

So seeing Tevez move away initially seemed like just the kind of move that both Manchester City and us #FPL managers needed. Freed from Mancini's unpredictability, the offloading of Tevez seemingly reduces the rotation risk of City's front line by a full 33% as it leaves those minutes to be filled by Sergio Aguero and/or Edin Dzeko, unless of course a third quality striker is brought in or recalled from loan who Pellegrini decides to drive us equally mad with. But that remains to be seen.

City's forward rotation was great for City; don't get me wrong. But it was an #FPL manager's nightmare. Looking at the statistics from the 2012-2013 season, Mancini actually did a very good job of spreading the minutes around and keeping people fresh when they weren't injured. Aguero, Tevez and Dzeko averaged 51, 63 and 48 minutes per gameweek respectively, a very even distribution, while scoring 5.6, 6.3 and 6.4 points per 90 minutes each. On the face of it, Mancini did exactly what he should have done; keeping things fresh and maintaining consistent returns.

Despite the rotation, Tevez finished the year as City's up-front leader in both minutes played and points scored. From a statistical perspective, he scored 6.35 points per game to Aguero's 5.60 and based on year-end values tallied 18.37 points per million pounds in price compared to Aguero's 10.90. Financially speaking, Tevez was a bargain. At 18.84 points per million pounds in price, so was Dzeko.

So maybe, purely from a numbers standpoint, City let the wrong guy leave. Based purely on statistics, for what it's worth, the Tevez and Dzeko show, based on the 2012-2013 season, is more productive and profitable than an FPL Aguero-Dzeko combination.

When setting the City dynamic to the side and looking at Tevez strictly compared to other FPL forwards in his price bracket (9.2m at season end), he also outscored every forward in the 8.3 - 9.3m bracket quite handily. Of Torres, Adebayor, Podolski, Carroll and Cisse, only Podolski even comes close to Tevez's points and value statistics.

So we're left, as oftentimes is the case, with a double-edged sword. When looking at City coverage, Tevez's move to Juventus simplifies things and makes both Aguero and Dzeko much more attractive investments than they were last year (Dzeko statistically would be the guy to pick up due to his points/price ratio, but I have a sneaky suspicion Aguero will have a good year assuming he doesn't get assaulted in the 13th minute of the first fixture like he did last year). At the same time, Tevez's outstanding performance in the mid-premium price bracket leaves a significant void to be filled by somebody. Who that person will be is anyone's guess, as Tevez decidedly outperformed everyone else in that bracket last season.

At this point, only one thing is for sure. Carlitos can show up and caddie at the British Open practice rounds all he wants, but no one will be getting any FPL points from him this time around. He's going the way of Balotelli and Mancini, and taking all of the pointing, laughing and snickering with him.

Seeya Carlitos. Good luck.

Please follow me on Twitter: @EPLFanForLife

Liam's take on the latest PL managerial merry-go-round

As we eagerly anticipate the start of the new season, all of the Premier League teams from last term have their new managers in place.  In this post we are going to look at the impact these new managers could have on their teams and, more importantly for us FPL managers.  The four managers we are going to look at are Jose Mourinho, David Moyes, Manuel Pellegrini and Roberto Martinez.  

Jose Mourinho

Now that Jose and Roman have kissed and made up, the Special One will be looking to add another Premier League crown to his collection of throw away medals. Mourinho is going to need his captain more than ever this season, John Terry. JT may have missed most of last season under Benitez but he is all but guaranteed to start most of Chelseas this season and, with his added goal threat, is definitely one player to consider. The trio of Mata, Oscar and Hazard remains to be seen whether they will start together, this season I am expecting big things from Oscar and hope that he gets a run of games under Mourinho, with him being considerably cheaper than Mata and Hazard anticipate the start of title contenders all have new managers, this makes him a potentially brilliant differential. The impact of Mourinho’s return, along with Lukaku, will surely put the futures of Ba and Torres into doubt. I for one can’t see Torres or Ba starting and would love to see Lukaku start the season as Chelsea’s main striker and I think Mourinho might just give the big man a go.  

David Moyes

Probably the most watched managerial job out the lot will be that of David Moyes and whether he will be able to handle the pressure of being the new Man Utd manager.  One thing David Moyes will bring to the team is that ‘never say die’ attitude that he instilled at Everton.  This means the futures of Nani and Anderson are up in the air but one man that could relish playing under Moyes is Shinji Kagawa, after his bedding in season I expect him to feature a lot more this season and is definitely worth considering when building your team.  With the whispers getting louder that Ronaldo could return to Old Trafford and Rooney possibly leaving this only means one thing for you fantasy Managers if it happens... get Ronaldo at any cost or get left behind! 

Manuel Pellegrini

What Manuel Pellegrini brings to the team is similar to that of Mourinho in the way that the players all seem to want to play for him with Isco, his former player at Malaga, calling him his ‘footballing father’.  With Isco also being linked with Manchester City he is an unbelievable talent and, playing alongside the likes of Silva and Aguero, would improve him more and he could turn out to be a must have for all FPL managers.  Under Pellegrini I don’t think you’ll see as much swapping and changing as that of Mancini but who he picks remains to be seen and because of this I would only consider the obvious starters,  Hart, Kompany, Toure and Aguero. I also expect Aguero to be more like the player we seen in his first season, barring any injuries in pre-season he will more than likely be in my team come August.

Roberto Martinez

Roberto Martinez loves to play attacking football, as we’ve seen with Wigan over the last few years. If he plays the same formation as he did with Wigan, which was a 3-5-2 formation (which I think he will), he couldn’t have two better wingbacks than Leighton Baines and Seamus Coleman.  This season should see Coleman reinstated as a defender and not as a midfielder, and if so he will be going straight into my team ahead of Baines, as for me Baines at £7m+ isn’t going to be worth it. 

Quick mention regarding the release of yesterday’s fixtures... I’ll be planning my team no further than the first three game weeks and, with the potential of another double game week for Chelsea.  I’ll be sure to have three Chelsea players in my team this time round as I didn’t buy into the whole double game week in week 1 last year.  I made the mistake of captaining Aguero who went off injured after five minutes into the season, much to my annoyance, only to see Hazard go on rip it up! 

Thanks for reading.

The FPL Fiend (Liam)

2012-2013 FPL Transfer Analysis - Would Knowing This Info Help You Too?

2012-13 Fantasy Premier League Transfer Analysis

I’ve gotta level with you guys.  I just can’t get the recent FPL season out of my mind.  It was a year of growth for me; a year where finding an outlet to talk about the sport (EPL) and the game (FPL) on Twitter raised my appreciation and enjoyment of the FPL game to levels I had never anticipated.

I’ve learned so much just from reading what knowledgeable fans have said to one another and asked one another about, let alone the actual conversations I’ve had with people that have helped me understand and enjoy the game with a new awareness.  I’ve said before that the season ended too early for me.  I didn’t want the momentum to stop.  Having improved from 352,257th place in 2011-2012 to 33,058th place in 2012-2013, part of me was afraid that the momentum I carried through the end of the season and all that I learned this year would fade with the two-month gap; that I might forget what I had learned and would essentially be starting the new upcoming season from scratch again.

So without being able to keep playing the FPL game, I wanted to do the next best thing.  I wanted to analyze my performance and delve further into how the knowledge I gained from talking and “listening to” so many respectable friends and fans helped me reach levels that surprised me.  The logical place for me to start was to analyze my transfer activity; specifically the transfers I made throughout the season that resulted in point hits.

If you’ve played FPL for any length of time and are active on Twitter, you’ve inevitably fretted over the prospect of “paying” or “spending” 4 extra points to make a transfer that you can’t make for free.  The concept is an integral part of the game, and one that often can make or break an individual gameweek and ultimately how you perform in your mini-league and overall ranking.

Respected FPL players talk about “the 4-point hit” just about every week.  Is it worth it?  What has to happen to make it pay off?  For which positions is it worth considering and for which positions is it a guaranteed no-no?  What are the odds that it will pay off?

I read and listened to many people.  One of the things I remember hearing most from people that I respected highly was “Don’t take a hit if you don't have to; they don’t pay off 80% of the time.”  That scared me and had me thinking carefully about all of the things that would need to happen for a 4-point hit to pay off.  Not only would the person I transferred in need to do well, but they would need to score at least 4 more points than the person I transferred out.  In FPL, where every point is valuable, a 4-point hit needed to be weighed carefully.

Partly because of the fear instilled in me with the prospect of a 4-point hit, and partly because I was in a position in my mini-league towards the end of the season where every point would end up being important, I always found myself thinking long and hard about the prospect of giving up 4 points to make a transfer that I thought would pay off.

With three weeks left in the season, and hearing the old mantra of “4-point hits don’t pay off 80% of the time” from respected FPL players in the back of my mind, my mini-league rival made the surprising decision of making 5 transfers during double game week 36; a 16 point hit!  I was freaking out.  I had taken point hits in the 2-3 weeks leading up to double gameweek 36 to prepare and set myself up for it, but was surprised that my rival took such a risk; especially when things were so tight in our mini-league.  One of my good friends in the FPL Twitter community, knowing my mini-league was tight and probably trying to make me feel better, said “Don’t worry dude, there’s no way they’ll all pay off for him”.  Well guess what; 4 of his 5 transfers DID pay off for him, and it left me questioning the “4-point hits don’t pay off 80% of the time” adage that had been ingrained in my head.

So, after the season ended, I thought I’d take a look and see just how I fared when making the decision to take transfer hits.  The results actually surprised me very much.

  

Note: Because almost all of the transfers I made that resulted in 4-point hits were transfers that required swapping more than 1 player, I’ve analyzed my transfer hits based on each gameweek as opposed to each transfer.  It was very rare that I took a 4-point hit specifically to swap one player for another; it more often required a double move to “downgrade” a player in one position to be able to “upgrade” a player in another.

Here are my 2012-2013 season statistics/details with regard to point hits and transfers:
(Please excuse the formatting; I've had a heck of a time with it and it's not quite the visual that I wanted)

GW2:   Out: Mata, Aguero (3,0)            In: Hazard, Tevez (13,12)        
             Pts Hit: -4    Net Pts: +18
GW5:   Out: Federici, Petric (0,0)          In: Davis, Berbatov (0,8)          
             Pts Hit: -4    Net Pts: +4

GW6:   Out: Torres, DeGuzman (11,0)  In: Fletcher, Fellaini (8,2)          
             Pts Hit: -4    Net Pts: -5

GW7:   Out: Davis, Lescott, Kagawa, Berbatov  (0,6,0,0)
             In: Begovic, Gibbs, Cazorla, Jelavic  (9,1,8,5)
             Pts. Hit: -12 Net Pts: +5      

GW11: WILDCARD USED
GW16: Out: RVP, Silva, Bale (6,2,0)     In: LeFondre, Sessegnon, Michu (4,10,12)
             Pts Hit: -8   Net Pts: +10

GW18: Out: Britton, Rafael, Fletcher, Fellaini (2,0,8,0)  In: Walcott, Nastasic, Ba, Toure (6,6,2,3)
             Pts Hit: -12  Net Pts: -5

GW22: JANUARY WILDCARD USED

GW27: Out: Suarez, Michu (0,0)           In: Giroud, Bale (2,15)              
             Pts Hit: -4    Net Pts: +13

GW29: Out: Fellaini, Cameron, Giroud (0,1,0)      In: Snodgrass, Garrido, Benteke (3,6,7)
             Pts Hit: -8    Net Pts: +7

GW31: Out: Benteke, Puncheon, Garrido (6,2,2)   In: Berbatov, Cazorla, Monreal (13,12,2)  
             Pts Hit: -4    Net Pts: +13
GW32: Out: Sturridge, Bale (2,0)          In: Lambert, Hazard (7,2)        
             Pts Hit: -4     Net Pts: +3
GW33: Out: Hazard, Davies (6,0)         In: Fellaini, Baines (5,12)          
             Pts Hit: -4    Net Pts: +7

GW34: Out: Fellaini, Cazorla, Suarez (2,3,11)        In: Michu, Maloney, RVP (3,2,17)
             Pts Hit: -8    Net Pts: -2

GW35: Out: Monreal, Lambert, Snodgrass, Johnson (0,2,2,5)
             In: Dawson, Lukaku, Bale, Figueroa (0,15,12,1)
             Pts Hit: -12   Net Pts: +7

GW37: Out: Defoe, Michu (1,8)            In: Sturridge, Lampard (17,14)  
             Pts Hit: -4     Net Pts: +18

Well there you have it.  All told, I spent 92 points on 23 transfers during the 2012-2013 FPL season.  Of the 14 gameweeks in which I took hits, I achieved net gains on 11 of them (78.5%) and had net losses on 3 of them (21.5%).

In summary, I gave up 91 points scored by the players I transferred out, spent 92 points to transfer in other players, and those players that I transferred in earned 276 points in the week I brought them in; for a net overall season gain of 93 points.

Here is something that I found fascinating... check this out:

The points scored by the players I transferred out  = 91

The number of points I spent on the 23 extra transfers = 92

The NET OVERALL GAIN I made through these transfers during the season = 93

Pretty crazy, huh!?!

I am so glad I took the time to put this information together and look back on my transfer dealings throughout the course of the season.  It taught me that depending on the situation, taking hits on additional transfers can work out rather well if done carefully.  As a fairly conservative FPL player, after the initial and necessary early season adjustments accounting for players who no longer started, fell out of form, were injured, etc., the majority of my point hits were taken to offload players who were either suspended, injured, had blank game weeks, etc.; or to bring in players with upcoming double game weeks.  In hindsight, this is perfectly normal and to be expected.  What I was surprised about was the percentage of times that point hits actually worked out for me.  Had you asked me that question throughout the season I would have said that it seemed like point hits worked out for me roughly half of the time.  My decisions look better in hindsight than they felt at the time, although obviously what’s not accounted for here are the players I DIDN’T pick who went nuts on certain gameweeks, like giving up Benteke to see him nail a hat trick a few weeks later.  But that’s FPL for ya.

If you would like to put together analysis like this for yourself based on last season’s statistics, PLEASE PRINT OUT YOUR GAMEWEEK DETAIL TODAY!  Next year’s EPL fixtures will be released tomorrow and there is speculation that the FPL site may reset itself and remove all 2012-2013 gameweek detail as early as tomorrow.  They do not store gameweek detail from prior seasons so once they reset the site it’s gone for good.

Sorry for being so long winded, but I hope you enjoyed seeing the stats of my transfers and how those transfer dealings affected the overall season points as a whole.  I improved my overall ranking considerably this year compared to last, and looking back now, these 93 extra points played a very large factor in that.

Cheers guys!

Walt

Please follow me on Twitter:  @EPLFanForLife

FPLH's Performance and Review 2012/2013

FPLH's Overall Rank:

5,038th out of 2,608,912 (Top 0.19% of FPL Gamers)

Last year I was ranked in the Top 0.004% of FPL Gamers

Domestic Standings:

FPLH League: 12th

Last year I finished 3rd

FPLH Cup: 42nd

Last year I finished 2nd

Team’s value after GW 38:

£106.8M

Last year the team value after GW 38 was £108.8M

Average GW score over 38 weeks:

59.07 from 2245 points

Last year it was 61.11 from 2322 points

Season's GW Points Tally (excl. transfer costs):

0-10 points: 0
11-20 points: 0
21-30 points: 1
31-40 points: 4

41-50 points: 8

51-60 points: 7

61-70 points: 9

71-80 points: 2

81 points +: 7

FPLH's Highest score, excl. transfer costs:

112 (GW23)

Last year it was 123 in GW 36

FPLH's lowest score, excl. transfer costs:

30 (GW 32)

Last year it was 38 in GW6

Transfers made:

48

Last year it was 44

Lost points through extra transfers:

52 points

Last year it was 44

FPL Player Exchange Game:

523 points - Overall position: 268th out of 57,719
(The P/E Game was new to the 2012/13 season)

Summary

After last year's cracking 110th finish, it was going to be virtually impossible for me to match that... but I gave it a go!  Realistically I was targeting at least a Top 1k finish.  The truth was that I had a solid squad through out the season.  But I lost too many silly points on the bench.  Upon calculation, I may have lost as much as 110+ points on the bench!  This was in part due to surprise results or unforeseen miscalculations on my part.  However, I gradually lost less points on the bench as the season progressed and fortunately didn't lose too many points on shoddy captaincy picks.  Relying on one keeper and having a stock/cheap un-usable 3rd sub helped me  to free up funds but also reduce points lost on the bench.  I believe I used both of my wildcards at the correct moments which resulted in a mid-season boost and late flurry injection of points - allowing me to obtain 2 tons in one season for the first time.  From GW23-33 I was floundering between 10k to 19k and feared a mediocre finish.  But the all-season wild card and spot on selections bailed me out to a respectable 5k.  Who captained RVP v Villa? Or captained Benteke v Sunderland? I did! These potentially risky yet inspiring captain picks catapulted me up the table, but alas it was too little too late to break into the top 1k. I rarely scored less than 40 which was pleasing but I should have got more 71+ GW scores.  Aside from that, I finished 2nd in FM-Base's league and 3rd in their cup which I consider a job well done under the circumstances.  To conclude, finishing 5,038th wasn't so bad after all and I intend to zoom up the table again for the 2013/2014 season. Mourinho? Moyes? 'Ollie? Bring it on!