Gameweek 16 Summary

Man City bounced back from their defeat to Chelsea, by defeating a resurgent Arsenal 1-0 at the Etihad (and keeping a much sought after clean sheet).  Man United and Liverpool also kept clean sheets, albeit away from home, with 2-0 wins respectively.  Tottenham beat Sunderland 1-0 at White Hart Lane as Swansea held Newcastle United to a damp squib 0-0 draw.  West Brom increased the pressure on Steve Kean to be sacked, as they defeated Blackburn Rovers 1-2.  Fulham won 2-0 at Craven Cottage versus Bolton as Stoke found victory away from home.  Finally, Everton were held to a 1-1 draw at home to Norwich; as were Chelsea (surprisingly) away to Wigan.

Ok folks, so I messed up with my recommended player for GW 16.  He didn't play a single minute of the aforementioned 0-0!  But in some ways I am glad he didn't start or do a second half cameo, due to the number of points I got from my bench.  Walker and Enrique got me points from keeping defensive clean sheets, as did Joe Allen from midfield (15 points attained from them: pre-bonus points update!).  The other two players from my first team that didn't play were Ryan Taylor (Newcastle United) and Gareth Bale (Tottenham Hotspurs), due to last minute injuries.  Interestingly, my goalkeeper and defenders all kept clean sheets, where as my midfielders and forwards scored/assisted 0 goals.  With all the above in mind, I have had a mixed gameweek.  It could have been a disaster with lost points on the bench or no points from the bench - but I was fortunate in having a strong bench.  I urge you all to beef up your subs' benches if you haven't already done so, as you could lose points due to squad rotation or injury - primarily due to the end of December/start of January fixture jam!  Despite Ben Arfa not playing I will still keep him in my team for WBA at (home) and Bolton (away).  My trust with him for the next two GWs is primarily due to the fact that I think Pardew needs Ben Arfa's attacking creativity and is bound to use him, subject to common sense prevailing.  I am tempted to do no transfers this GW (a rare non-move on my part), in-order to have an extra free transfer at hand.  However, I am keeping a track of David Silva, trying to find a replacement for Ryan Taylor and possibly ditching Joe Allen.

I will upload my recommended player for GW 17 shortly!  Until then, adios.

Recommended Player for Gameweek 16

Recommended Player for Gameweek 16 - Hatem Ben Arfa (Newcastle United)

"was one of the best-rated talents in France"
Source: ESPN

I wanted to make a bold statement with my recommended player for Gameweek 16. The pick is in part influened by Aaron's quasi-reasoning (of FPL Dug Out fame), as well as my self concocted FPLH formula of:

Calculated Probability + Hunch + Player/Managerial Skill + Luck = Potential Success!

So here we go...

I would advise that you buy Newcastle United's Hatem Ben Arfa for Gameweek 16. Granted he has just recovered from a major injury that kept him out for the most of last season and is not currently a first teamer. At the tender age of 24 he has attained an amazing five French top-flight league titles and he has two international goals to his name (from eight appearances).  His French contemporaries include Samir Nasri and Karim Benzema.  The video above compliments his proven prowess and shows why is so highly rated. However, I believe that calculated probability dictates he will get a good run of games due to Newcastle's recent slump in form and due to their favourable upcoming fixtures:

GW 16 - Swansea (H)
GW 17 - West Brom (H)
GW 18 - Bolton (A)

It should be noted that Swansea haven't won a single away game in the league this season. Where as 15th  place West Brom have been generally inconsistent and have conceded more than a goal per game whilst playing away. As for Bolton, they have only won 1 home league game out of 7 thus far and conceded goals at an abysmal rate of 2.6 at the Reebok Stadium. These figures alone are a no-brainer and indicate that you should have attack-orientated Newcastle United players in your team (for the time being).

My hunch is that Pardew will try and reiniviograte his attack, to compensate for losing his first choice defensive core (of S Taylor and Coloccini) to injury. Pardew will be fully aware of the fixtures ahead. Don't be surprised if he will ditch the conservative attack mindset of having the Ba/Best combo or having Ba as a loneish striker up front. I accept that Ben Arfa didn't play a single minute of the last league match - but it really is his time to shine. He has spent the past few gameweeks attaining crucial match fitness and his attacking abilities are such that he can play on the wing or in an attacking midfield position. Even if you are not keen in having him in your first team, he is a talented player and a cheaply priced bench warmer (5.4) - especially with the busy end-of-december fixtures appearing on the horizon. His player skill is too good to ignore. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts in all of the next three GW matches, or if he makes credible super sub appearances in at least 2 of the next 3 matches. My "manager skill" dictates that now is a good time to buy him due to the aforementioned. If he flops after the three upcoming GW fixtures it's no big deal as probability has made him a short-term favourable first team pick (or bench warmer) and you can always replace him.

Of course, having said all of the above, you will need to hope for a bit of luck if you do end up picking him in your team.

Here's to hoping for some potential success with Hatem Ben Arfa!

GW 16's Transfers: Aaron Ramsey (OUT) / Hatem Ben Arfa (IN)

Captain: Demba Ba

Vice Captain: Luis Nani

My gameweek 16 team can be found here shortly*

*I reserve the right to change my team prior to the start of the GW and will denote any team changes on the Blog's FB page.

Gameweek 15 Summary

Man City's percieved footballing logic of "it's not how many goals you concede; it's how many you score!" finally failed, as the league leaders unbeaten Premiership run came to a dramatic halt at Stamford Bridge (2-1: sensationally downed by a Frank Lampard penalty). They will rue their missed chances versus Chelsea during early spells of dominance, prior to getting a man sent off. City will now have to pick up the pieces and especially look at their leaky defence which has kept a paltry 4 clean sheets out of 15 league matches thus far (with the last one on 1st October). In other matches, Champions Leage chasers Arsenal and Liverpool won 1-0 a piece at home, while conversley lowly placed Bolton and West Brom both lost 1-2 at home. Man Utd at last found form in front of goal by scoring four past Wolves at home, as did Norwich against injury-hit Newcastle United. Swansea won with a clean sheet against Fulham and Martin O'Neill marked his managerial debut for Sunderland with a last gasp win over Blackburn. Finally, surprise title contenders Spurs suffered a mildish shock defeat away to Stoke (1-2).

As for my GW team it did fairly well, by scoring a very decent total of 79 points - my highest gameweek score thus far for the season. But it could have been so much better... Had I captained my recommended player for Gameweek 15 I could have scored an astounding 90 points! Nevertheless, taking the actual captain's points into account - four of my players hit double digits - Nani (18), Vorm (12), Ba (12), Van Persie (14* as captain). The 56 points between the four players in question were courtesey of a penalty save and five goals. I have no real individual player dissapointments with my GW team, apart from Aaron Ramsey. He should have had far more goal and assists over the last few gameweeks, had it not been for his abundance of squandered chances. In truth he is not attacking enough from my perspective (too centralish of a midfielder). To top things off his value has dropped. Thus I was scouting for a replacement from Liverpool, Newcastle United and Manchester United (who I believe have favourable upcoming fixtures). Remarkably - not only have I finally decided to sell Ramsey - but replaced him with a cheaper, attacking and bolder pick that I will reveal in my recommended player for gameweek 16. Until then stay tuned!

Champions League Fantasy Football?

I was recently asked if I played Champions League (CL) Fantasy Football.  The answer is that at this moment in time I only play FPL.  However I did set up a CL team but never changed it.  The question by a fellow reader encouraged me to log into my CL account to see how I was doing - the answer - mediocre at best.  Here's the team that I initially registered:

The above team seems decent enough on paper, but some of those players didn't play or perform during the group stages.  As a result, with the advent of the knockout stages I have made some changes to my CL team.  I doubt I will be managing my new CL team too seriously, I may not even log into that account again - but for your thoughts and benefit, here it is:

Recommended Player for Gameweek 15‏

Recommended Player for Gameweek 15‏ - Luis Nani (Manchester United)

Rio Ferdinand on his teammate:
"Nani's got the potential to do what he wants"

My recommended player for gameweek 15 is a fairly familiar face to FPL gamers, though a surprise pick of late due to sub-perfect form, it's Manchester United's Luis Nani.  Last year he was a nailed on first teamer for many a team as he accumulated an impressive 198 points (9 goals, 18 assists) from 33 matches which averaged a respectable 6 points per game.  After last season's exploits the Cape Verde-born Portugese international seemed to be the natural successor to fill Cristiano Ronaldo's void at Old Trafford.  As a result more was expected from Nani.  However, this season hasn't shown further enhancement thus far from him, with the half way mark of the league season approaching he has only scored 3 goals (none since gameweek 6)  and 5 assists.  Admittedly he did go on a good run of points scoring between GWs 3-6, yet such consistency hasn't been maintained.  This could change with Manchester United's upcoming fixtures:

GW 15 - Wolves (H)

GW 16 - QPR (A)

GW 17 - Fulham (A)

GW 18 - Wigan (H)

GW 19 - Blackburn (H)

Provided that he plays regularly and does well during this period his value could easily rise from 9.9 to a high of 10.5+.  The chances are that he will play regularly during this period, as United are behind City in the league and are currently without two other midfielders - Cleverley and Anderson.  I was contemplating replacing Ramsey for Nani, yet instead I got rid of my cheap stock filler midfielder Ferguson (4.1) so as to ensure that I have a sound bench for the busy end-of-December period.  Despite Nani's mediocre season by standards from last season, he is still remarkably listed as the fourth highest midfielder for overall points thus far.  At 9.9 he is a sub-10.0 proven midfielder that could bring you some seasonal cheer.

My Transfers: Nani (IN) / Ferguson (OUT)

Captain - Robin Van Persie

My team for GW15 can be found here.

Gameweek 14 Summary‏

During a bog standard gameweek 65 points* (*61 after the extra transfer) would be considered fairly decent-ish.  This is what I accumulated for GW 14, but a breakdown of the statistics tells a different picture altogether, which I shall divulge in later during this post.  But to sum up the results, Newcastle lost their unbeaten home record with an unlucky 0-3 defeat to Chelsea, as Blackburn attained a much needed victory over Swansea (4-2).  League leaders Man City won 5-1 at home, whilst QPR drew 1-1 with their fellow promoted comrades Norwich.  Tottenham won 3-0 at home against Bolton and neighbours Arsenal won 0-4 away versus Wigan.  Man United and Stoke both registered 0-1 away wins, as Wolves won 2-1 and Liverpool lost 0-1 to Fulham. 

Now back to the stats - I had Bale (11 points), Jones (15 points) and Van Persie (15 points) in my first team, yet despite this I unfortunately captained Adebayor who only acquired two points.  This proves all the more frustrating as Tottenham were playing a 10-man Bolton team for most of the match and Adebayor had plenty of chances to score.  Interestingly none of this week's top three points scoring Goalkeepers, Defenders, Midfielders or Strikers had a value of 10.0+, apart from Mr Consistent - Robin Van Persie.  This could be an indication that buying the most expensive player doesn't always equate to mega points during a gamweek.  In fact, a lot of sub-6.0 valued players shined - i.e. Schwarzer (4.9), Hennessey (4.5), Huth (5.6), Vukcevic (5.7), Yakubu (5.6) and Fletcher (5.7).  In spite of this, I will not indulge in panic buying of any of these cheaply priced players, based on this gameweek. 

Looking to the future, Man United, Newcastle United and Liverpool have a fairly decent run of fixtures until the end of the calenday year - It is advisable to have players from these teams during this time.  It is also important to beef up the subs' bench with the onset of busy end-of-December fixture schedule and usual bad weather which may lead to match postponements.  I have made my one transfer for the gameweek, which I shall reveal as my recommended player for gameweek 15.  Until then, goodbye.

PS - A special mention to the former Brazilian football captain Socrates, who died over the weekend - you can read/watch more about him here.

Sócrates (1954-2011): One of Football's Greatest Artists

Sócrates (1954-2011): One of Football's Greatest Artists

Another gameweek, another footballing death. I have just heard the news that the former Brazilian footballer Sócrates has died at the age of 57. He played 60 times for Brazil scoring 22 goals. His goals were often spectacular as was the case in the 1982 World Cup with Brazil - that team was probably the greatest team never to win the World Cup, as is evident from the video above.  He mostly played football in Brazil apart from a stint in Italy and one-off spectacular return to football with Garforth Town in 2004.  Not only did he go to university, he qualified as a doctor, an absolute rarity in the world of football.  Sócrates will be known for his on-field talent and off-field persona that made him one of the most iconic players of his generation and a great artist to the beautiful game.

Euro 2012 Groups

Source: BBC Sport (Football)

Courtesy of BBC Sport, we have the Euro 2012 Groups for you, as displayed above.  So Group A seems easy, with any four of the teams capable of progressing to the knock out stages.  Group B seems tough, with Netherlands, Germany and Portgual promising much competition.  Group C seems hard on Ireland with the reigning and former world champions (Spain and Italy) giving them company.  Group D is mildy difficult for England as they face co-hosts Ukraine, former European Champions France and their bogey team (who they finally defeated after 38 years) Sweden.