Tuesday, 13 December 2011

Recommended Player for Gameweek 16

Recommended Player for Gameweek 16 - Hatem Ben Arfa (Newcastle United)

"was one of the best-rated talents in France"
Source: ESPN

I wanted to make a bold statement with my recommended player for Gameweek 16. The pick is in part influened by Aaron's quasi-reasoning (of FPL Dug Out fame), as well as my self concocted FPLH formula of:

Calculated Probability + Hunch + Player/Managerial Skill + Luck = Potential Success!

So here we go...

I would advise that you buy Newcastle United's Hatem Ben Arfa for Gameweek 16. Granted he has just recovered from a major injury that kept him out for the most of last season and is not currently a first teamer. At the tender age of 24 he has attained an amazing five French top-flight league titles and he has two international goals to his name (from eight appearances).  His French contemporaries include Samir Nasri and Karim Benzema.  The video above compliments his proven prowess and shows why is so highly rated. However, I believe that calculated probability dictates he will get a good run of games due to Newcastle's recent slump in form and due to their favourable upcoming fixtures:

GW 16 - Swansea (H)
GW 17 - West Brom (H)
GW 18 - Bolton (A)

It should be noted that Swansea haven't won a single away game in the league this season. Where as 15th  place West Brom have been generally inconsistent and have conceded more than a goal per game whilst playing away. As for Bolton, they have only won 1 home league game out of 7 thus far and conceded goals at an abysmal rate of 2.6 at the Reebok Stadium. These figures alone are a no-brainer and indicate that you should have attack-orientated Newcastle United players in your team (for the time being).

My hunch is that Pardew will try and reiniviograte his attack, to compensate for losing his first choice defensive core (of S Taylor and Coloccini) to injury. Pardew will be fully aware of the fixtures ahead. Don't be surprised if he will ditch the conservative attack mindset of having the Ba/Best combo or having Ba as a loneish striker up front. I accept that Ben Arfa didn't play a single minute of the last league match - but it really is his time to shine. He has spent the past few gameweeks attaining crucial match fitness and his attacking abilities are such that he can play on the wing or in an attacking midfield position. Even if you are not keen in having him in your first team, he is a talented player and a cheaply priced bench warmer (5.4) - especially with the busy end-of-december fixtures appearing on the horizon. His player skill is too good to ignore. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts in all of the next three GW matches, or if he makes credible super sub appearances in at least 2 of the next 3 matches. My "manager skill" dictates that now is a good time to buy him due to the aforementioned. If he flops after the three upcoming GW fixtures it's no big deal as probability has made him a short-term favourable first team pick (or bench warmer) and you can always replace him.

Of course, having said all of the above, you will need to hope for a bit of luck if you do end up picking him in your team.

Here's to hoping for some potential success with Hatem Ben Arfa!

GW 16's Transfers: Aaron Ramsey (OUT) / Hatem Ben Arfa (IN)

Captain: Demba Ba

Vice Captain: Luis Nani

My gameweek 16 team can be found here shortly*

*I reserve the right to change my team prior to the start of the GW and will denote any team changes on the Blog's FB page.