Moneyball, FPL and the Premier League

What is Moneyball?

In a nutshell, Money ball is a bio-pic about a US baseball team that uses statistical theory in the form of sabermetrics to recruit players (based on a shoestring budget). This analytical approach was revolutionary as the general manager and his assistant assembled a team of under-rated players that on face value seemed average, yet had certain strong attributes which could be optimized. The statistical approach initially doesn't fare well, but the team eventually defies the odds and goes on a 20-match winning streak.  We later learn that sabermetrics is eventually accepted as a mainstream baseball theory and is eventually adopted by another team who win the World Series for the first time in 84 years.

Is Moneyball possible in the Premier League?

It depends how one interprets the theory, but I suppose in some respects it is possible.  From my perspective, picture a PL club with a shoestring budget that is looking to rebuild its team.  All they need is an open-minded chairman and a manager willing to take risks and be driven by well calculated stats for player recruitment.  Imagine them purchasing players in each position, not based on their overall qualities per se, but rather on specific attributes or stats and their potential to excel when gelled with other players of different specialisms.

For instance, a team may purchase a left-winger on a free transfer who has gone under the radar, yet has decent crossing ability and a proven record of assisting from out wide.  Or an attacking midfielder that may not have the best shooting ability, yet has natural pace to accelerate past defenders, etc.  Or more radically, converting the likes of Peter Crouch and Nikola Zigic into centre backs due to their height.  Stats and key attributes will determine what type of player is needed in which area and ideally they don't have to cost that much either.

The problem in the Premier League today is that a manager doesn't have total control of player recruitment.  The only exception to the rule arguably is Arsene Wenger, where as the rest have to rely on scouts or so-called "Directors of Football" to recruit players (or in Joe Kinnear's case make boasts yet spend £0).  Moreover, why would a Premier League club blindly rely on statistics? In addition, they may have a preference to go by certain football agents and their stable or perhaps focus on versatile players that have sufficient all-round attributes for their chosen position.

Having said the above, some may say that a stats-based method has already been used in the PL to recruit players.  Courtesy of FPLH Walt (from across the pond!), he cited an alleged example of this taking place under Liverpool's American owners, i.e. apparently by their 2011 purchases of Adam, Henderson and Downing.  I'm not sure how true that is.  But it's not beyond the realms of possibility.  Whether an adapted version of sabermetrics can be used successfully in the Premier League remains to be seen.

Is Moneyball possible in FPL?

Technically sabermetrics can't be fully integrated into FPL due to the scoring system being based on certain fixed statistics.  However, I believe that the principles which propelled the Moneyball team are significant.  Statistics can be used to help identify under-rated players (in particular differentials) which can help you score better than your FPL rivals.

I have to confess that my GW1 team had a bit of Moneyball about it.  The best example of which was my in defence via right-back Steven Whittaker.  I could have bought various Norwich FC players, but I opted for him specifically.  I hadn't noticed him that much till the England v Scotland match.  I then discovered that he had a fantastic scoring record for Rangers (28 goals in 209 matches) and would have played more for Norwich last season (had it not been for injury).  I also assembled other under-rated Moneyballesque players such as Morrison, Snodgrass and Downing. I chickened out at the last hour and made Whittaker my sub 2.  Fortunately, he had a fantastic GW1 and auto-subbed on for me!

Mish Mash: A Moneyball team with FPL Price caps?

All the above begs the question, could I assemble a Money ball inspired team with FPL price caps? i.e. a team of under-rated players that stand out on an individual basis but play for ordinary teams.  Here are the parameters I set myself as a guideline:

• Attack-minded players (ideally).
• Under-rated yet possess good attributes/stats.
• Newly promoted or finished 6th-17th last season.
• Goalkeepers maximum value: £4.5M.
• Defenders maximum value: £5.0M.
• Midfielders maximum value: £6.0M.
• Forwards maximim value: £7.0M.

My Moneyball team:

I could justify all of my selections; the most random of which is Gerhard Tremmel.  He isn't even Swansea's first choice goalkeeper.  However, when you look at his saves statistics in the PL you wonder why hasn't he been given a better run between the sticks!  Anyway...

My fellow writers also came up with their own Moneyball teams, albeit with a bit more flexibility on the parameters.

Matej's Moneyball team

Walt's Moneyball team

What are your thoughts on Moneyball principles being used in the EPL & FPL?  How would your Moneyball team look like? Tweet me on @FPLHints or comment on this post.  Cheers!

Last minute transfer window moves & their impact on #FPL

After a few stressful and worrying months of the transfer window being open, we were all glued to our iPads and computers to make sure that we were up to date with the latest transfer rumours going around. With the likes of Rooney and Suarez linked to various clubs, it looked to be a promising transfer window for all teams involved, yet how did your team end up finishing? Did you sign the right players for your squad and also were you able to hold onto the ones that you already cherish?

All in all, with the transfer window now being closed for this year until January, we have been left with many new headaches and decisions to be sorted out regarding our teams; whether we take a transfer hit to purchase the likes of RVP against Crystal Palace in GW4 or instead play the wildcard (and set our teams up for the long run). With the inclusions of magnificent players from overseas such as Mesut Özil and Jesus Navas, we also saw the movement of talented young players who have already proven themselves in the EPL such as Romelu Lukaku, who joined Everton on-loan minutes before the transfer deadline. With many of these striking transfers being completed on deadline day, our FPL options have been further enhanced. We have been thrown some fantastic new players to consider for the upcoming weeks, but will they make an immediate impression on the League like Michu was able to do with Swansea last year?

In my opinion I believe that the most exciting and interesting transfer that was completed late on deadline day was the signing of Mesut Özil to Arsenal for £42.5 million. Being an Arsenal supporter myself, I am excited at this massive coup by Arsene Wenger this year, with lots of creativity and attacking potential being pumped into the fairly young Arsenal squad. Even my partner admin on our twitter account, who is a passionate Manchester United supporter, is filled with joy about the prospect of Özil playing in the Premier League despite being disappointed himself of the poor attempt from David Moyes to show interest in a player of Özil's high calibre. The stats for Özil are simply nothing short of brilliance, creating 91 chances last year for Real Madrid, which was the most out of any player in the La Liga. The player who was second to Özil in creating chances for his team was the one and only Lionel Messi, who we definitely don't need to talk about. Özil is valued at £10.0 in FPL this year which we expect to rise rapidly after GW4, with Özil likely to slot into the first team straight away and be put in the role behind the in-form Olivier Giroud. Santi Cazorla and Theo Walcott are also players to consider for your teams, with both of them likely to play out wide now that Özil takes up that central position. Goals will not be a problem for Arsenal this year, it is whether or not they can keep enough clean sheets.

Enough of the Özil chatter, I will continue on and discuss the impressing performance shown by Everton FC on transfer deadline day, proving that they are able to sign some quality players and also keep onto their highest prized asset in Leighton Baines at Left Back. With Everton signing the likes of James McCarthy (£5.5 in FPL), Gareth Barry (£5.3) and also Romelu Lukaku on loan for the season (£7.4), we have some great potential scorers to pick from the Everton team. The most intriguing player will be Lukaku, as he was able to score 17 goals last year with West Brom and return a massive score of 159 points whilst only playing 2,009 minutes out of a possible 3,420 minutes. 

With Lukaku looking very likely to take up the lone-role up front at Everton, he will be provided with plenty of scoring opportunities from the wide positions from players such as Seamus Coleman (£5.4), Leighton Baines (£7.5) and Kevin Mirallas (£7.5) who will give the big Belgian plenty of chances to finish and score. Although Everton were able to sign some solid personnel in the midfield with Gareth Barry and James McCarthy signing late in the window, we advise that you steer clear of these two as they will not provide you with many big scores throughout the season.

Finally, we would like to finish off with the one and only major signing by David Moyes and his Manchester United team in Marouanne Fellaini for £27.5 million. Although Manchester was able to sign 3 players in the window, it proved to be a disappointing transfer period for them with only the acquisition of Fellaini to highlight really. With an unlimited transfer budget being allocated to Moyes by the club, he wasn't able to lure those big names that United were linked with so often during the window. This is of course not to take anything away from the abilities that Fellaini possesses in his game style, proving that he will be enormously important for United at set pieces and corners which is something that United really lack in quality at the moment. 

Fellaini is priced at £8.5 in FPL which is quite reasonable for a midfielder of his class, but the burning question still remains about whether or not Fellaini will be playing in a deeper role or not, considering that United already have Carrick and Cleverely for defensive midfielders. This could push Fellaini higher up the pitch at United and provide even more points in a fantasy perspective, with goals and assists to RVP looking very promising for us managers!

Out of all these players that were desperately signed during the finals stages of the transfer deadline, I will be investing my money in Özil the most, as he looks the most likely to return a big score in his first few games at Arsenal.

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FPL Hints - Gameweek 3

Disclaimer: *FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will most likely be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter account.

Transfers:

Ivanovic (OUT) / Lescott (IN)

I projected GW2 to be a low-scoring GW, and so it was.  I ended up with 52 points (post -4 hit), which was enough for me to rise by 50,000 or so places.  In truth I got lucky and will be hoping for better results this Gameweek.

With the international break around the corner, I didn't want to take another -4 hit in case the extra player got injured for his country, thus rendering the hit pointless.  The only change I have decided to make is to sell Ivanovic for Lescott.  This may come as a surprise for some, but Ivanovic has a blank GW3 and has harder fixtures after that.  As for Lescott, he has pretty much guaranteed a starting place for the time being and has two decent upcoming fixtures.

As for the remainder of my team... I have some concerns.  With Bassong potentially back, Whittaker could be shafted out of the Norwich team.  Moreover, Kolo Toure picked up an injury midweek which has made him a major doubt for this GW.  As for Dzeko, despite scoring against Cardiff, he is a rotation risk.  In spite of that, I have decided to captain Dzeko for GW3.  I think he is capable of scoring against Hull, regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench.

GW Reject:

BENTEKE (AST)

GW Punt:

BEN ARFA (NEW)

GW Hot Pick:

DZEKO (MNC)

Why?

Scored in his last Premier League outing.

He is currently averaging 6 points per GW thus far.

Scores from starting or the bench versus different teams.

FPLH's GW Star Picks:

Jaaskelainen

Lescott

Zabaleta

O'Brien

Ben Arfa

Snodgrass

Morrison

Nolan

Van Persie

Soldado

Dzeko (c)

Subs:

Ruddy

Olsson
Coleman

Coutinho

Looking back at Gameweek 2 - Chief's "LESSLINES"

EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT!

KOLO CAN STILL CUT IT IN THE PREMIER LEAGUE.

WENGER'S BOYS AREN'T BOTTLING IT JUST YET.

DEFENDERS CAN KEEP CLEAN SHEETS AFTER ALL...

... WHILST MIDFIELDERS HAVE THEIR BAD DAYS!

BENTEKE & RVP WILL NOT ALWAYS SCORE GOALS.

BEWARE: CARDIFF AREN'T HERE TO BE THRASHED!

RUSSIAN ROULETTE? JOSE WILL STILL TINKER.

ONE DIRECTION: SPURS ENJOY REPETITIVE WINS.

AND FINALLY...

SWANSEA MAY BE LAST, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE!

*"LESSLINES" is a portamanteou of Lessons and Headlines.  They are intended to be bite-sized summations of what we learnt during the Gameweek!

New Gameweek review series on FPLH

Hi all,

Quick message... I'm pleased to announce that we have decided to revive FPLH's Gameweek review series.  The series will complement our on-going flagship Gameweek previews.  The reviews (previously known as summaries) were a regular fixture for FPLH during the 2011/12 season, i.e. with mentions of "Captain America" and other outlandish headlines!  I ditched the reviews/summaries for 2012/2013 during a phase of stream lining.  The 2013/14 previews will be written by Matej, Walt and I in our own unique styles.  Stay tuned and enjoy...

Regards,

Chief @ FPLHints

PS - A special thanks to our ever expanding readership and Twitter followers.  We have had a cracking summer; rising in the organic FPL rankings, being rated alongside major FPL pundits and rapidly expanding too.  If it wasn't for you folks we wouldn't be doing FPLH!

Mark Schwarzer: Socceroo Hero & One-time FPL Legend

Geezers!

One goalkeeper that has always been a respectable option between the sticks for Fantasy Football is Mark Schwarzer. The Aussie shot stopper stands at 6 foot 5, 40 years young and still playing the top flight in the best league in the world.

After securing a move to Chelsea in the early part of the season he'll be playing number two to the reliable Petr Cech but will be utilised as a valuable squad player.

Providing Cech stays healthy it looks likely that Schwarzer will be given a role in Chelsea's cup run. Something the Australian knows all about winning - lifting the League Cup trophy in the 2003-2004 season with Middlesbrough.

Many will remember Schwarzer's penalty save against Robbie Fowler to prevent Manchester City overtaking Middlesbrough for their place in the EUEFA cup.

His class is always evident – in his time in the Premier league he has seen his fair share of high pressure games with runners up medals from the EUEFA Cup (with Middlesbrough) & the now re-branded Europa League (with Fulham).

With all the negativity in the media that usually surrounds professional football it is refreshing that outside of the game Schwarzer is an Ambassidor for any up and coming youngster dreaming of putting on the gloves. He is a well educated family man who is respected on & off the pitch.

Australia's number 1 is involved in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and is regularly involved in charity work & events.

One of his biggest achievements to date was when he received the Order of Australia award in 2009 for his services to football.

Some would say his career is borderline superhuman!  Schwarzer's been a professional since he was 19 and is playing in the Premier League at 40.

He holds accolades, trophies, Over 100 caps for Australia and is looking at one last World Cup run...

This Geezer can reveal that this superhero has a secret... According to legend; Schwarzer has worn the same pair of shin pads since he started playing professionally!

With an impressive 148 Premier League clean sheets, Australia's Superman will still by flying for a few more years before he decides to hang up his gloves.

Here's Schwarzer in action! 

Written by:

@FPL_Geezer 

FPL Hints - Gameweek 2

Disclaimer: *FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will most likely be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter account.

Transfers:
(-4 Hit)

Downing & Hazard (OUT) / Nolan & Y Toure (IN)

I ended up with 84 points in #DGW1.  If you offered me that tally over a week ago I may have taken it.  But hindsight is a funny old thing.  I made a few last minute transfers that cost me hitting 100 exactly!  In particular, I sold O'Brien for Gibbs (who got injured after half an hour) and I sold Nolan for Downing (who got a 1 point cameo off the subs bench).  These two transfers cost me -16 net exactly.  Having said that I got a bit lucky too.  Whittaker was initially in my starting XI and then I relegated him to sub2, yet I still managed to claw back his hoard of points.  Ivanovic's goal and Hazard's assist also boosted my tally.  Regardless, I'm off to a decent start and shouldn't complain too much.

I think the average score of GW2 will be far lower than #DGW1.  Firstly because there is no extra fixture and secondly as a lot of people picked players in #DGW1 that were playing at home.  As is evident in my starting XI, only 3 of them are playing at home.  With that said, I wasn't inclined to panic buy "home" players for GW2 as their fixtures aren't that great overall.

I decided to sell Downing in place of Nolan.  The fact is that Nolan is virtually a second striker for West Ham.  With Carroll's absence and Maiga being out of form, he is bound to score more.  Also, with Nolan playing against his former club this weekend, I think he has a point to prove and may do so against the Magpies stuttering defence.  Beyond this GW, Nolan has some decent fixtures coming up over the next few gameweeks.  

My other transfer entailed me selling Hazard to fund my Nolan purchase.  Chelsea have a tricky fixture v Man Utd on Monday and they won't play in GW3.  Thus I replaced him with Yaya Youre as he is a regular City starter, can often get involved with goals and has a good run of upcoming fixtures like Nolan.

I have decided to captain Soldado as he has form on his side.  If United can ship 4 past Swansea at the Liberty Stadium, then surely a rejuvenated Spurs can score at least 2 past them at White Hart Lane?  Don't use Europe as an excuse, as both played yesterday so that factor is cancelled out.

GW Reject:

MARSHALL (CAR)

GW Punt:

RAMIREZ (SOU)

GW Hot Pick:

SOLDADO (TOT)

Why?

He is Tottenham's main goal threat.

Soldado has scored 3 goals in his last 2 games.

Swansea conceded 4 at home in their GW1 match.

FPLH's GW Star Picks:

Howard

Coleman

Shaw

Clyne

Sigurdsson

Y Toure

Barkley

Nolan

Van Persie

Soldado (c)

Dzeko

Subs:

Boruc

Zabaleta
Paulinho

Shawcross

Early wildcard: Should I or shouldn't I? A Gamer's Dilemma

The new season brings new hopes for all fantasy football managers. During the summer, the eager among us followed transfer news hoping to find the “new Michu”.  Some of us even checked team sheets of friendly matches at great length in pursuit of bargain priced youngsters who could provide us with that much needed "x factor".  Furthermore, we were bombarded with dozens of FPL projections and previews suggesting different FPL squad options.  Ultimately, all we wanted was to find the best balanced squad to top our private leagues.  Right?  

After tinkering with the team you eventually feel confident that you are going to have a good weekend. You’re definitely going to beat all your mates; maybe even have a high overall ranking? Sky is the limit!  Last Friday, when I looked at my team I was very confident of its potential. I purchased decent players for each position.  I expected them to generate lots of points.  Why wouldn't they? Well, they didn’t! I ended with just 69 points, and I’m 864,776th in the overall rankings.  I'm now questioning the team that I have and thinking of radical changes... even playing my wild card for GW 2 has become tempting.

There are different strategies for the wildcard. Some folks prefer to leave it for the double gameweeks later in the season, others prefer to use it only in an emergency when most of the squad is injured or out of form.  Some people that I know are willing to use it at the beginning of the season, to fix GW1 selection mistakes.  Personally speaking, I don’t mind using it early, but I think GW2 is too soon for it.

There is a break for international matches after GW3. I think that’s the best moment to re-analyse my squad, look at other players, think about new strategies and hopefully change my #FPL luck for the better.  I think it's best to wait a while, rather than using the wild card so soon.  Do you agree? 

If you want to comment, you can reach me on Twitter (@LukMasz).