GW26 FPL #JackInTheBox

Guys/gals, with 13 fixtures left in the English Premier League season, there are ELEVEN sides within 7 points of the bottom.  ELEVEN!  None of these teams are safe by any stretch of the imagination as we approach the business end of the season.  I cannot even begin to imagine the excitement we are in for as these 11 squads battle it out over the coming weeks.  If things continue to stay this close, we are virtually guaranteed of a "six-point relegation battle" every gameweek.  It makes the battle at the bottom of the table a nervy test of survival that will surely be almost as closely scrutinized as David Moyes' handling of the Manchester United job.

But I digress.  Our spotlight, although touching the edges of the full 11-squad free-for-all, centers pointedly on the bottom 8 clubs; those clubs who have accumulated 26 points or less from their first 25 EPL fixtures this season.  Not an accomplishment to write home about, is it? Combined, these squads represent an overall record of 47 wins, 49, draws, and 104 defeats. That's an average of 6 wins apiece, or one win out of every 4 fixtures.  As a group, they've combined to score 186 goals while allowing 318 footballs to hit the back of their net, for a combined goal differential of -132.

Surprisingly, at least 5 of these squads (and maybe more, depending on how the 3 currently above them in the table fare over the coming weeks) will survive and play in the Premier League again after the World Cup has come and gone.  Your current 8 #JackInTheBox eligible squads are:

20)  Fulham, playing home to Liverpool (4)
19)  Cardiff City, playing home to Aston Villa (12)
18)  West Bromwich Albion, playing home to Chelsea (1)
17)  Sunderland, playing away at Manchester City (3)
16)  Norwich, playing away at West Ham (15)
15)  West Ham, playing home to Norwich (16)
14)  Crystal Palace, playing away at Everton (6)
13)  Stoke City, playing home to Swansea (10)

It is almost impossible to resist the six-pointer taking place between West Ham and Norwich tomorrow, but I'm going to.  I'm choosing to train my eye on Wales, where Cardiff City host Aston Villa.  Everyone knows that Villa play better away from home and that Christian Benteke is gaining form.  That scares me, which is why I'm not choosing a defender this week.  Cardiff are in desperate need of a positive display, especially after the derby thumping they were handed by Swansea at the weekend, and Villa's position just outside the bottom 8 shows they are susceptible, especially when coming to visit a nasty, snarling, angry, intimidatingly-named Bluebird side (who wear red).

GW26 FPL #JackInTheBox:  Wilfried Zaha

Yes, Ince has shown his promise and has found a way to the score sheet both times he's suited up in a Palace uniform, but I've yet to see him play and am gonna withhold the armband at least until I'm able to get a chance to watch him.  Zaha is quick and tricky; elusive and explosive.  I can certainly see him causing trouble for a Villa defence known for its difficulty in keeping a clean sheet.  Zaha has been fielded twice by Cardiff, notching an assist on his 53 minute debut and getting the start at the weekend before being subbed in the 76th minute vs Swansea.  I think he has something to prove, will approach the home game with something of a chip on his shoulder, and I hope he produces crowd-pleasing results tomorrow evening when Benteke and Co. come to town. Heck, even if he doesn't, he will surely be fun to watch ;)

Good luck in Gameweek 26 everyone!

Cheers,

Walt

#FlyBuy - GW25

I knew who I wanted to pick this week. I planned it 4 weeks ago. In all honesty he was supposed to be my pick for GW23 for the derby game. But Manchester United signed Juan Mata, and well, y'know, he absolutely HAD to be my choice for that week. After all, the parameters I get to play with are a player who perhaps used to be an FPL necessity, who has gone off the boil for one reason or another, but who I predict will "fly" again. So, Mata was a no-brainer. And it paid off.

Last week (GW24) I seized on a closing window of opportunity to pick another United player. Why do I say closing window? Well, my parameters mean my pick has to come from a team who are between 5th and 15th in the Premier League. I truly believe United are in a false position and will be overtaking Spurs, Everton and Liverpool in due course. I never expected them to lose to Stoke though. The return of RVP saw him as my FlyBuy pick last week, and he repaid me with a goal.

But this is where it gets difficult. The guy I had lined up for GW23 but left on the back-burner has gone nuclear. To the point where I can no longer use him as a FlyBuy pick. Why? Because he is already flying high again so it would be viewed as a pick with the benefit of hindsight.

To whom do I refer? The human tank that is Christian Benteke. 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 games tells you all you need to know about the big Belgian. If I didn't have J-Rod occupying my 3rd Striker spot in my own team, Benteke would be in there in a flash.

But I can't pick him with all good integrity. So who should I go for? Well, in all honesty, I'm struggling. Nobody is an immediate choice, and those names I am considering I personally don't really believe are capable of going on a run. Except one. In all honesty he's not "my" kind of player, but I guess that's irrelevant and I should go with what I see.

I see a player who is going to have to lead the line for his club in the absence of the (so called) main man. The club itself are in decent form and the guy loading the bullets at the moment is THE in form FPL player (I refer of course to Adam Johnson).

So without further ado, I reveal to you my FlyBuy pick for GW25; Fabio Borini

It's a long shot, and it may backfire - we shall have to wait and see...

FLY

@meet_the_gadfly

#CalledIt Differential Pick - GW25

"WHAT?!" was my response when Chief told me there are only 14 more game weeks to go. How can it be? This time last year I was already sitting comfortably in Top 1000 (or maybe even Top 100, I forget) and now I seem to be stuck between 15k and 25k. But who cares about my woes, right? Moving on.

I've asked my followers over at @CalledItFPL this week whether they plan to play it safe or risk it between now and the end of the season. The answer? RISK IT! Which was great news for me, meaning you all need these differential articles. :)

There are a few familiar (and some not so) faces that come to mind as potential differentials this week. If you LOVE you differentials to stretch as much as possible - Wilfried Bony could be your man. Two blanks, fired head coach (this was a stunner as well) and the "new manager syndrome" just might propel a few past Cardiff this week. Facing him and the Swansea team we have three potential ones - Mutch, Noone and the man who could be a mainstay in my team if he gets 90 minutes this GW - Wilfried Zaha. Providing an assist in 45 minutes of action last GW, he wasted little time to get himself on our radar. 5.4m and 2.4% owned. Sweet.

The list continues with players like Puncheon (just can't seem to mention his name without seeing a ball floating in outer space :)), Paulinho, Long, Jelavic, Eto'o...but this week, this week I mean business. Being handed an extremely rare defeat at home by Chelsea, I expect Manchester City to bounce back with a vengeance. Norwich have been pretty solid at home, but I really think that MCFC will penetrate them. The usual suspects - Yaya, Negredo, Džeko, Silva and others are all expected to deliver something, but there are also two who are flying well below the radar. Jovetic, who sadly does not have a guaranteed start yet (so proceed with caution) and my #CalledIt pick for GW25 - Jesus Navas. 4 goals and 6 assists this season so far - I put my faith in him to add some more to his tally this week.

GW25 FPL #JackInTheBox

 

GW25 FPL #JackInTheBox: Battle of the Walts

 

You guys are in for a treat this week.  Much like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, and much like the devil you have on one shoulder and the angel that sits on the other, I approach this week's JackInTheBox selection with multiple personalities.  That's right; although most of you may very well think that one of me is more than necessary, this week I bring you two Walts.  And unfortunately for me, both of them have what I consider to be a pretty decent argument.  Maybe you can help me decide.  Here, for your reading pleasure, are the two Walts:

 

Knee-Jerk Walt:  Wilfried Zaha, one of the most exciting players in the entire bottom 8; indeed perhaps the most potentially influential and explosive, sure to have a major influence on one of the most anticipated derbies of the season, subject of intense speculation regarding the offspring of one noteworthy EPL manager, and the guy who set Deadline Day alight with his loan move to Cardiff and upon whose young shoulders a relegation battle has been placed.  No further thought necessary; he's our guy.

 

Analytical Walt:  Not so fast there, Knee-Jerk Dude.  Cardiff play away to Swansea in what is sure to be a heated derby, and we all know how unpredictable derbies can be, especially when played away from the comforts of home.  Let's look at the rest of the fixtures first.  Fulham play away at United, and the only person on the Fulham side who may earn their keep is their Sports Psychologist, so no thanks.  West Ham play away to Aston Villa.  They have trouble scoring, their main offensive threat is suspended after putting a savage beating on Chico's hair bun, and keeping a clean sheet away from home will be tough, especially with Benteke finding some form.  Crystal Palace play at home to West Brom and are definitely worthy of consideration, especially Jason Puncheon, who is also on good form and has the added benefit of having the possibility of scoring from the spot if he doesn't slip and/or shank it wide and high.  He's also on 4.5% ownership and has enjoyed investment from a number of FPL managers looking for a nice differential in the 5.x price range.

 

West Brom, Puncheon's opposite number, are playing away and have shown little in the way of offensive threat lately.  I hardly consider them at all.  Norwich play home to City, and the only person at Carrow Road earning their keep will most likely be the scoreboard operator.  Which brings us to the second fixture in GW25 pitting two squads in the bottom 8 against one another: Sunderland at home to Hull City.  Adam Johnson, my #JITB pick from just a few weeks ago, has skyrocketed to 13% ownership after memorable performances including 6 goals in his last 4 fixtures, which leaves Borini as the most likely candidate with only 0.5% ownership.  Ki Sung-Yeung also has performed well.  However, although coming in as the visitors, my mind is set firmly on Hull City and the potentially lethal strike combo of Jelavic and Long.  Both have impressed in previous spells at Everton and West Brom, and quite frankly, the two of them together, in my opinion, instantly transformed Hull City from a squad that most defences didn't stay up too late studying film of, to an attacking duo that could make it difficult for opposing defences to fall asleep at night.

 

Analytical Walt's biggest problem is choosing between the two.  Both Jelavic and Long are well below the 5.0% ownership threshold.  So....Analytical Walt calls Knee-Jerk Walt back in for a consultation, and Knee-Jerk Walt provides a quick solution.

 

"Easy.  Jelavic fed Long last week vs. Tottenham.  This week it's Jelavic's turn to score."

 

And there you have it.  That was easy, huh?

 

GW25 FPL #JACKINTHEBOX: NIKICA JELAVIC

Chief's FPL Team - Gameweek 25

Disclaimer: *FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will most likely be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter account.

 TRANSFERS: NONE

14 Gameweeks to go!  I can't believe the season is almost over and I'm ranked 100k.  Aargh!  Last week was a low scoring GW across the board.  I only scored 43pts (after my -4 hit) and took a tumble in the rankings.  Fortunately 10 of those net points came from last week's transfers (Suarez & Sturridge).  You would think that I would look to remedy my team with another transfer or two.  Dzeko or Negredo are definitely viable for the next 3 Gameweeks, but the former could be a rotation risk and the latter lacks form.  But sometimes inaction is better than action.  Looking at my team's fixtures for GW25, I opted against further transfers.  Why?  Well, 9 of my starting 11 are due to play at home!  This opens up my captaincy options.  It was a good headache and I decided to give the armband to Mata.  It's unthinkable to comprehend that he hasn't scored a single PL goal this season.  He has a good chance of breaking that duck against a team with one of the worst PL away records.  Looking at my subs, I didn't want to bench Januzaj, but I couldn't justify benching any of my other strikers or midfielders.  Distin should feature again for my team next week, where as R Bennett will most likely keep the "cheap 3rd sub" spot for the remainder of the season.  On a side note, bravo if you have Van Persie.  He is due a few more goals following his long spell out and United's favourable fixtures.  I plan on buying him just before United & City's Double Gameweek 31 but it would mean selling Sturridge and possibly Silva.  Perhaps I could free up funds and buy Ince and/or Zaha in the process (subject to form)?  TBC in the weeks ahead...

Sterling & Monreal undercard could be box office

With Luis Suarez, Daniel Sturridge and Phillipe Coutinho on one side and Mesut Ozil, Santi Carzola, Lukas Podoloski and Oliver Giroud on the other, the Liverpool and Arsenal clash will have plenty of entertainment.

The aforementioned septet have scored 72 goals between them, set up 36 goals and have a total of 709 fantasy football points today– they are every fans and fantasy football players dream.

However on Saturday they could be overshadowed by a player that has impressed and matured this season, Raheem Sterling.

The 19 year old has scored more fantasy football points then Coutinho and Podolski and at £5.3 million is he a snip – so far this season he has scored 3 goals and contributed 2.

Of the 19 appearances he has made this season, 13 have been starts and the majority of them have come since the end of November.

The England starlet got his chance due to the injury sustained by Daniel Sturridge in November and such has been his form that he has kept his place on the right of the attack.  

Interestingly for a young player eager to impress, Sterling has made more of a contribution when he has started compared to when he appears as a substitute – all his goals and assists have come when he has been on from the start.

Sterling is a player with blistering pace that likes to dribble which can only mean two things – he can beat a man and if he doesn’t, the chances are he will win a free.

With an 81.3% pass success rate, Sterling likes a short pass, and a new found ability to track back, he has become a vital cog in the Liverpool team. He averages 1.6 tackles a game, 1.8 when he is in front of his own fans.

With all the hype that currently exists over one Adnan Januzaj it is interesting to note that they share the same tally for the season, although the Serbian/Belgian potentially English star is fouled more often than his counterpart.

One of the more noticeable attributes that Sterling has shown this season has been increased belief and self-confidence. The finishing looks more composed and the final ball looks better – the improvements on last season when both were rushed are plain to see.

Much of those improvements are down to Brendan Rodgers and his management of the player. Negative headlines looked set to derail Sterling before he got started but he has knuckled down and heeded the advice given.

On Saturday Sterling will be more than likely up against Nacho Monreal.

The Spanish defender has played his part in an Arsenal defender that has only conceded three goals in 2014. He has started the last five games and has kept clean sheets in three of them.

According to stats on Here is the City Monreal averages .88 interceptions, has caused errors leading to 3 shots on goal and wins .94 tackles a game, stats lower than Keiran Gibbs, although he is a much better blocker than his English counterpart.

While Monreal is certainly an impressive part of the Arsenal backline he does not appear to carry the same stature as Bacary Sagna, Per Mertesacker and Laurent Koscielny and if there is a chink in the chain it would appear to be the former Malaga man.

That means that Sterling will have a very large part to play.

The emergence of Jon Flanagan as a strong defensive option means that Sterling, whilst still able to track back, has more freedom than when he plays alongside the more forward thinking Glen Johnson - meaning that Monreal will be stifled as an attacking force.

Despite the many intriguing battles on the field this Saturday, the Sterling/Monreal undercard could yet be box office.  

Will you pick Sterling in your fantasy team? Play our free pick five Liverpool versus Arsenal fantasy football game on www.fantasy5live.com for your chance to win a superb prize.

Fantasy Football Hints - Gameweek 25

#REJECT (R):

S. Bassong (NOR)

Unlikely to score, assist or keep a clean sheet against City.

Norwich have conceded 2.17 goals per game on average at home.

Facing a City team that has scored 2.17 goals per game on average away.

#PUNT (P):

C. Benteke  (AST)

Has scored 3 & assisted 2 in his last 4 PL games.

West Ham have conceded more than a goal a game when playing away.

In a World Cup year, Benteke has rediscovered his form that made him a hero last season.

#HOTPICK (H):

J. Mata (MNU)

Despite lacking match fitness, he has assisted in his last 2 PL games.

Facing a Fulham team that has conceded 2.33 goal per game on average away.

Logic dictates that he will score his first PL goal of the season sooner rather than later.

Looks like Wayne Rooney with hair!

FPLH's GW Star Picks:

Mannone

Shaw

Terry

Ward

Hazard

Eriksen

Silva

A. Johnson

Van Persie

Benteke

Suarez

Subs:

Guzan

Lallana

Vlaar

B. Davies

FANTASY FORECAST*:

LIVERPOOL TO BEAT ARSENAL (3-2).

ASTON VILLA TO BEAT WEST HAM (2-1).

CHELSEA TO BEAT NEWCASTLE (2-0).

CRYSTAL PALACE TO BEAT WEST BROM (1-0).

MAN CITY TO BEAT NORWICH (4-0).

SOUTHAMPTON TO BEAT STOKE (2-0).

SUNDERLAND TO BEAT HULL (1-0).

SWANSEA & CARDIFF TO DRAW (1-1).

TOTTENHAM & EVERTON TO DRAW (1-1).

MAN UNITED TO BEAT FULHAM (3-1).

*NOT TO BE USED FOR BETTING PURPOSES

The Rearview Mirror: Gameweek 24 in Review

Well, the gameweek started off kinda whacky with many fearing a scary low gameweek average.  After all was said and done, however, the gameweek average of 45 ended up to be pretty much, well, average.  Gameweeks 2-7 were a long time ago, but during that span, the gameweek averages were 45, 44, 47, 47, 44 and 36 (just to put things into perspective).

So, whether you ended up on the right or wrong side of the 45 average (and I hope you exceeded it), here's a quick little synopsis of a gameweek that had its fair share of excitement, intrigue, and notable headlines/memories.

Newcastle 0 - 3 Sunderland

Sunderland travel the 15 miles to St. James Park on a tidal wave of confidence

Adam Johnson continues his astonishing scoring run in the 3-0 victory

Sunderland supporters send the top tier rocking during another exciting Tyne-Wear Derby

West Ham 2 - 0 Swansea

Andy Carroll proudly walks onto Upton Park pitch donning coveted #JackInTheBox armband

Carroll to Nolan!!!  TWICE!!! (Walt's feeling smug)

Chico does his best (and equally embarrassing) Jordi Alba impersonation - Carroll tossed

Stoke City 2 - 1 Manchester United

Charlie Adam deflects ambitious 40-yard free kick off Carrick's knee and into DeGea's net

RVP equalizes for United and earns a tiny bit of that 13.6m FPL price tag

Adam master strike sends United slumping to 8th defeat of season

Everton 2 - 1 Aston Villa

Villa strike first as Bacuna nutmegs Howard in 33rd

Tension builds, but Naismith equalizes in 74th to calm the Goodison nerves

Mirallas brings instant home-side jubilation to Everton faithful and leaves Martinez beaming

Hull City 1 - 1 Tottenham

Jelavic and Long form daunting new front line for Bruce's Bombers and prove it in 12th min

Paulinho powers past McGregor to knot things at 1

Fixture ends in 1-1 draw and man, those Hull players REALLY look like Tigers!

Fulham 0 - 3 Southampton

Fulham begin post-Berbatov /Taarabt part of season hosting Saints

Lallana, Lambert and Rodriguez add to Rene's woes

Will Premier League tickets be sold at Craven Cottage next season? 14 fixtures will tell.

Cardiff City 2 - 1 Norwich City

The brilliant, popular and highly respected Vincent Tan is on hand to survey his geniusnessness

Robert Snodgrass quickly dashes the hopes of all Mannone/Marshall FPL rotaters

Cardiff roars back through Bellamy and Jones then hold off surge after surge for 3 pts

West Brom 1 - 1 Liverpool

SAS strike first as Suarez threads needle to Sturridge for tap-in

Kolo Toure - I'm not even sure I can type this - poor Kolo

Everyone on the planet but Brendan Rodgers blames Kolo for the draw

Arsenal 2 - 0 Crystal Palace

Arsenal start slowly in front of a quiet Emirates crowd

Palace prove tough to break down and hold strong until shortly after the break

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain makes his 28.458 FPL owners scream "YAYE"!!!!

Manchester City 0 - 1 Chelsea

Jose arrives at Etihad with a surprise or two

Ivanovic slams brilliant left-footed strike into corner while Hazard and Matic shine

Chelsea hold on to hand City a rare scoreless defeat at home

Well, by now you've all either used your January wildcard or are cursing yourself for forgetting to do so, and we all enter the rest of the 14-fixture season with the teams that will get us through to the very end (unless, of course, you are my hero and have held onto the "wild" wildcard, in which case I give you a standing ovation and pray you're not in my mini-league).

The rest of the season is going to be AWESOME.  With so many viable FPL prospects out there and new faces that will surely play a big part in their new squad's ultimate success, combined with so many knowing that this is their last chance to impress national team managers, we are all in for a very long, very bumpy, extremely exciting ride.  I can't wait and know that you're looking forward to it too.

Give me a follow on Twitter or share this with someone you know if you like it and find it worthy of sharing.  All of us here at the FPLH blog team continue to strive to bring you top quality FPL info and discussion topics worthy of your attention and we hope you'll continue coming back throughout the 14 fixture joy ride we have left in front of us.

Cheers!

Walt