Welcome back to Dan’s Digest where we’ll take a brief look
at a few thoughts before the DGW37 kicks off. The points raised here are designed
to get you thinking about your moves for the last couple of weeks.
DGW Teams
Arsenal and Sunderland are obviously playing twice this week
which presents plenty of opportunities for investment, especially so late in
the season as you don’t need to plan too far ahead.
Arsenal
Arsenal’s unbeaten run came to an end against Swansea on
Monday night as they fell to a 1-0 defeat but don’t let this put you off
investing in them. They had 23 goal attempts , which is the
joint highest with Man City who hit 6 against QPR, showing that they had no
trouble creating opportunities. Despite not registering an assist in the last 6
gameweeks, Ozil has been the most creative Arsenal midfielder with 18 chances
created (7 more than 2nd placed Cazorla) and I expect him to produce
some fantasy returns in this DGW. In terms of goal threat Olivier Giroud has
struggled recently. A few weeks ago it was accepted that most active teams
would have Giroud in for the DGW but that is looking unlikely now since he hasn't
scored in his last 4 games. He’s had 1 shot on target in that time and hasn't completed a full 90 minutes of Premier League action since 4th
April. That has left Sanchez as the team’s main goal threat, which is of little
surprise, and will be many people’s captain selection for this weekend.
Jack Wilshere has recently returned from (another) injury
and played just over 20 minutes in each of the last 2 gameweeks. With two
matches in quick succession he could end up starting one and his stats have
been excellent since his return with 5 chances created in just 28 minutes of
action against Swansea, as well as 2 goal attempts from inside the box.
Be aware when selecting Arsenal players that if automatic
qualification for the Champions League is secured this gameweek then Wenger may
choose to rest several key players in GW38 for the FA Cup final.
Sunderland
Sunderland
successfully completed the ‘smash-n-grab’ tactic against Everton last weekend
with a couple of lucky goals and a solid defensive display. A home game against
Leicester followed by a trip to the Emirates sees the Black Cats come up
against the league’s two in-form teams. In defensive terms we can’t expect Sunderland
to keep a clean sheet this week despite their shut-out against Everton simply
because of who they’re playing against. However, van Aanholt has been given
license to get forward at any opportunity by Dick Advocaat and is a very good
option for the DGW. With 8 attempts on goal in the last 6GWs and 4 of those
being in the box, the left back carries a goal threat going forward. In addition
to that, he’s created 10 goalscoring opportunities for his teammates showing he
has potential to add to his 5 assists so far this season.
Going forward, Jordi Gomez is on penalties which always holds
potential and also has an assist to his name in recent matches. It’s difficult
to choose from the striking options available at Sunderland simply because they
all lack the quality needed to be consistent at this level. Danny Graham’s re-introduction
to the team though offers an interesting option as he’ll play as the furthest forward
and most central figure in the 4-3-3 formation.
Hazard
Eden Hazard has picked up plenty of accolades this season
and is the current top scorer in terms of FPL points this season. However, a
lacklustre performance against Liverpool last weekend combined with just 1 goal
and no assists in his last 4 games suggests Hazard may well be on his summer
holidays already as far as FPL is concerned. With no shots mustered against
Liverpool and a hefty price tag it might be time to ship him out to either redistribute
funds elsewhere or bring in another Arsenal midfielder for the DGW.
Gerrard
Steven Gerrard’s final game in front of the Anfield faithful
will be an emotional affair for all involved. Against a Crystal Palace side
with nothing to play for and no points in 4 games Gerrard could go out with a
bang. Expect the referee to give Liverpool the benefit of the doubt when it
comes to challenges or handballs inside the box to give Gerrard the chance to
score one last goal in front of the Kop.
An end of season
trend?
Over the last three seasons we've seen 48 clean sheets
during gameweeks 35-36 in the Premier League compared to just 30 during
gameweeks 37-38. Similarly, 113 goals have been scored in gameweeks 35-36 in
the past couple of seasons which has risen to 133 for the final two gameweeks.
This is not a full-proof statistical analysis that stands up to scrutiny.
However, it does suggest there may be a trend in the final few games of the
Premier League for teams to open up and play more expansive football where
goals are more regular and clean sheets are rarer. For this reason, and due to
the unpredictable nature of the last few games, I’d suggest investing in the ‘Power
7’ frontline of midfielders and forwards rather than defenders since this is
likely to be where the points are to be found over the coming couple of weeks.
GWs 35-36: 2013 = 55GC, 13CS
2012 = 58GC,
17CS
2011 =
72GC, 18CS (Bolton had 4 matches & 8 others had 3)
GWs 37-38: 2013 = 66GC, 13CS
2012 =
67GC, 7CS
2011 = 58GC,
10CS
