Thursday, 8 September 2016

Best replacement for Aguero?

Aguuuuueeeeerrrooooo... NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
That is the reaction of the FPL community to Sergio Aguero after the first three gameweeks. After a blistering start to the season, scoring 3 goals and picking up 6 bonus points in his first two matches, it wasn’t long before Aguero’s price rose to 13.1 and all those managers saying “I don’t need Aguero” realised how wrong they were, with his ownership rising well over the 50% mark. However, the Aguueeerrroo!!! soon changed to NOOOOO!!! when he elbowed West Ham defender Winston Reid in the face and was handed a 3 game ban by the FA, meaning that he will miss the next two league matches.
So what do we do with the heaviest of the heavy hitters whilst he’s out? Do we keep him on the bench for two gameweeks or transfer him out with a plan on how to get him back in? Currently priced at 13.0, this amount is far too much to keep on the bench, even if it only is for two weeks. Furthermore, with Aguero’s price expected to drop at least a further 0.2 over the next few weeks, the smart move is definitely to take him out now and buy him back for cheaper later.
So, now the question is who do we bring in for Aguero? I have two words to answer that question.
ROMELU. LUKAKU.
Lukaku and I have a bit of a love-hate relationship, similar to that which the majority of the FPL community has with him. One week, it’s LUUKAAAAKUUUU!!!! and then the next week he’s anonymous, hence the names LukakuWHO? and BLANKaku. There is not doubt that Lukaku has all the attributes needed to be a top class striker (strength, pace, power, heading and a great shot), but he has been plagued by inconsistency in his career to date. However, for some reason, I still believe in Lukaku and am confident that he is the perfect replacement for Aguero.
Despite only starting 1 PL game and 1 EFL Cup game so far this season after returning from the Euros fatigued and with an ankle injury, his underlying stats in his limited game time are very good. In his two starts for Everton this season, he has managed a shot every 20.0 minutes and a shot assist every 45.0 minutes. This highlights his attacking potential. Although he stated in a recent interview that he is not 100% fit but almost there, his attacking stats are still good enough to rank him 2nd among all forwards for shot frequency this season, just behind Sergio Aguero. More recently, he netted a brace for Belgium in their World Cup qualifier against Cyprus, which indicates that he might be hitting form at the right time.
In addition to his excellent attacking stats so far this season, Everton’s extremely favourable fixtures provide Lukaku with a perfect opportunity to announce himself as a heavy hitter. Here is how Lukaku performed against his next 8 opponents last season:
Opponent
Starts
Shots
Goals
Chances Created
Assists
Sunderland
2
7
1
5
2
Middlesbrough
1
3
1
1
0
Bournemouth
2
6
2
3
0
Crystal Palace
2
5
1
4
0
Man City
4
7
1
2
0
Burnley





West Ham
2
10
2
2
1
Chelsea
3
7
2
0
0

These stats are a reminder of what a prolific goal scorer and potent attacker Lukaku can be.
Bringing Lukaku into your FPL team to replace Aguero will provide excellent options to FPL managers. His fixtures provide good short and long term points potential. This is because if Lukaku does not perform over the next few fixtures, managers can do a straight swap and bring Aguero back in for him in GW6. However, if Lukaku hits form, managers may not want to take him out. This provides a chance to downgrade on other heavy hitters such as Hazard or Ibrahimovic if they lose form and then upgrade a mid priced forward to get Aguero back in.
Additionally, there was much speculation over the transfer window that Lukaku would be leaving Everton. However, Everton refused to budge from their asking price of £75m and a move never materialised. Despite all the transfer speculation surrounding him, Lukaku has committed his future to the club and promised to score goals. This may boost his appeal as he will no doubt aim to prove his large price tag this season so that bigger clubs like Chelsea or Manchester United will have no choice but to fork out the cash to land an in form unstoppable Lukaku. Therefore, the fact that he is fully focussed on the club and scoring goals to prove himself bodes well for FPL managers.
Overall, it is clear that Romelu Lukaku is the perfect replacement for Aguero. This is because of his extremely favourable fixtures, past history against his upcoming opposition, current attacking form and the fact that he has a point to prove this season.
So now it’s over to you Romelu...