We’re back for our final pod of the preseason joined by FPL Stag, whom we’re also collaborating with on twitter for our Preseason Previews.
Here, it’s not the ten commandments but nine unwritten rules of FPL that we debate the merits of, as well as talking in depth about how rotation may become part and parcel of our game.
We also talk All England, Zombie League and our teams, too.
Enjoy – and all the very best of luck on Gameweek 1!
At the age of 22, Fischer arrives at Middlesbrough with bags of potential and talent, previously having been scouted by European giants such as Chelsea, Manchester United and Inter Milan. However, a move never materialised and he has spent his entire professional career (four seasons) plying his trade in the Dutch Eredivisie for Ajax.
Fischer comes off the back of only 18 appearances starts for Ajax last season, with 10 of those starts. However, impressively, he still managed to net 8 goals and register 3 assists, with a shot frequency of 1 shot every 29 minutes. His creativity was less impressive however, creating a chance every 62.7 minutes. Fischer’s attacking potential is highlighted in two of his more recent appearances. In an international match against Bulgaria on June 7, Fischer featured prominently, registering 3 assists in a 4-0 win. Additionally, against Aston Villa on July 31, he managed a goal and assist in a 3-1 win. Furthermore, his potential against ‘better’ teams is also evident. In 6 appearances in the Europa League last season, Fischer managed 2 goals and 1 assist. In one match (vs Molde), he managed 1 goal, 7 shots (5 on target, 2 off target & 4 inside box) and 3 chances created. In Ajax’s final group game, he then managed 5 shots and 3 chances created. These performances clearly exhibit Fischer’s capability of both firing shots and created chances for his teammates.
Moreover, Fischer will most likely assume his fair share of dead ball duties; either curling a freekick at goal or whipping in a corner to aerial threats such as Ayala, Espinosa, Negredo and Rhodes. This heightens his appeal.
With Middlesbrough not lacking attacking depth, also having Gaston Ramirez, Stewart Downing, Alvaro Negredo and Jordan Rhodes, uncertainty surrounds Karanka’s starting line up for their first league match against Stoke. Historically, Karanka has favoured a 4-2-3-1 formation, which would see Fischer most likely starting on the left of the attacking midfield trio alongside Ramirez in the centre, Downing on the right and Negredo up front. However, if Karanka opts for Rhodes to partner Negredo up front (as he has recently done at times in preseason), Downing would drop out of the side, with Fischer lining up on the left. Nevertheless, Fischer’s ability to play along all attacking midfield positions as well as at the ‘false 9’ position plus his quality will almost definitely cement his role as a certain starter, no matter what formation.
Overall, it is evident that Fischer has great potential as a genuine FPL option, not just as a cheap 5th midfielder. With a price of only £5.5, his flair and ability to both score and assist will definitely be something to watch out for this Premier League season.
Leighton Baines (TSB – 6.4%)
We all know the quality of Leighton Baines. Over the years, he has proved himself to be one of the most sought after defenders in FPL, rewarding managers with a steady stream of both attacking and defensive returns. Over the past 10 seasons, Baines’ attacking output has definitely been a major factor in the minds of FPL managers, with 28 goals and 55 assists coming over that period.
Last season, Baines was hampered by injury, only starting 16 of Everton’s 38 league games. In this time however, his creativity is still evident, as he managed 22 shot assists and 2 assists (both coming in the 3-3 draw with Chelsea). That’s a key pass frequency of 1 every 64.5 minutes (quite good for a defender, especially one returning from injury). During last season however, he only managed 9 shots. It is worth noting though that once he has returned to full fitness towards the end of the season, he did managed 2 goals in the final four games. Further to this, Baines’ tendency to get forward and take the attacking option is highlighted by two main distribution stats: (1) Of 61 completed crosses from open play last season, 34 of them came from within 18 yards of the goal (2) 379/621 of his passes were played into the ‘forward’ zone of the field.
Baines’ appeal is heightened by the fact that although being a defender, he is Everton’s first choice penalty taker. In the final match of the season vs Norwich, even though Lukaku and Mirallas (who have both previously taken penalties) were on the field, Baines took it and converted. Although Baines may not take as many corners as he used to with the likes of Barkley, Deulofeu and Mirallas all capable takers, last season he did take 42 in his 16 starts, which was only bettered by Barkley (71), suggesting that he may still feature prominently in this domain. However, although he is a proven free kick taker, with Deulofeu and Mirallas also quality takers themselves and both scoring brilliant free kicks already in pre-season, he may fall down the pecking order.
When fit, Baines is a definite starter. Under Martinez, a 4-2-3-1 was rolled out each week. If Koeman keeps the formation the same (as he used frequently for Southampton over the past few years), Baines will certainly be first choice at left back. However, Koeman is not afraid to alter his tactics, on occasion setting his team up in a 3-5-2. If this is the case, Jagielka and Funes Mori would play alongside Stones (if he stays) or Williams (if he is bought) at centre back. This would see Baines shift to left wing back/left midfield, with Coleman on the opposite side, increasing his appeal.
Although in previous seasons, Everton has had one of the most resilient defences, last season their defence was rather leaky, conceding 55 times. However, Koeman’s Southampton only conceded 41 goals and he is likely to instil this resilience, the same one as Everton defence’s past, back into this Everton backline.
Overall, it is clear that Baines has great potential for both attacking and defensive returns. With an ownership of only 6.4% and a price of £5.5 (down from as much as £8.1 in 2010/11), the acquisition of Baines by FPL mangers will be a smart move, with the prospect of large point hauls achievable.
Isaac Success (TSB – 0.2%)
Before signing for Watford from Granada for a club record fee of £12.5m, Success had been linked with a move to Atletico Madrid, PSG, Valencia and Inter Milan. However, the 20 year old Nigerian opted for a move to Vicarage Road and is hoping for a successful season ahead.
Last season, Success started 28 games for Granada in the La Liga. In these 28 games, he managed to net 6 goals and provide 3 assists. Delving into his underlying stats from last season, Success managed 58 shots on goal in total, with 18 of them on target. He finished to season with an acceptable shot frequency of 1 shot every 41.97 minutes. However, his ability to be provider is a slight let down, with a key pass provided every 86.93 minutes.
As a player, Success is quite well rounded. His most notable strength is his pace and dribbling ability, however, he is also very strong on the ball which is needed to succeed in the Premier League. Last season, the Nigerian flyer attempted 155 take ones. He beat his opponent on 67 occasions with a success rate of 43.23%.
Talking about his potential position, Success started the majority of his games started on right of an attacking midfield trio. He also featured prominently on the left side, cutting in onto his favoured right foot. Success is a versatile player who is comfortable playing in a wide position or central attacking position. The fact that he is Watford’s record signing suggests that he will be a nailed on starter. At Napoli, Mazzarri often utilised the 3-5-2 formation. He has also used this in every preseason match. This formation could result in Success being fielded up front with Ighalo and Deeney being deployed behind the front two. This is the most likely scenario and it bodes well for FPL managers as Success is classified as a midfielder. Mazzarri has also trialled a 3-4-3 in preseason which would see Success fielded on either wing. 4-2-3-1 is also an option, which would again see Success fielded on either wing.
Despite his promising attacking talents and OOP potential, some FPL managers may be deterred by the ill-discipline of the young and raw 20 year old. Last season, Success committed 51 fouls in total, picking up 10 yellow cards and 1 red card. This may affect the thinking of FPL managers when selecting their team.
Overall, despite his tendency to pick up cards, the probability that Success will be fielded up front despite being classified as a midfielder as well as his attacking talents mean that he may well outperform his price tag of £6.0. Clearly, he has the attributes to be a success in the Premier League (even though some unsuccessful haircuts are expected).
Nathan Ake (TSB – 2.3%)
Ake moves to Bournemouth on the back of a very good season for Watford, being named the club’s Young Player of the Year. However, Chelsea could not foresee a place for Ake in their senior squad for the 2015/16, and opted for another loan deal for the youngster.
Last season, Ake took part in 24 league games for Watford, starting 20 of them. Overall, he finished the season with 1 goal and 1 assist, picking up 7 bonus points. In terms of attacking output, he registered 16 shots, so almost 1 every match he started. However, only 5 of these were on target. In terms of creativity, he was less impressive, only registering 9 shot assists. Nevertheless, his attempted shot assist statistics were impressive. Out of his 42 crosses completed, 29 of them arrived from within 18 yards of the goal, highlight how he is not afraid to get forward. Furthermore, he had a take on success rate of 69%. Defensively, Ake was very strong last season, winning 67% of his attempted tackles and rarely getting caught out of position. Therefore, for a young and inexperienced player, Ake’s statistics and performances last season suggest that he will develop into a quality player.
In terms of where he will fit into the Bournemouth side, it is unclear at this stage. Although he started 19/20 matches at left back for Watford last season, it is highly unlikely he will play there for Bournemouth with Charlie Daniels, Brad Smith and Tyrone Mings all vying for one spot. With Adam Smith playing well at right back last season, that may force Simon Francis to partner Steve Cook at centre back, a spot in which Ake has played in preseason. This will allow Ake to push into the midfield, which, as described by himself, is his natural position. Although he will face competition from the likes of Surman, Arter and L.Cook, the fact that Chelsea loaned him out again to a lower club for development would almost certainly suggest that he will be a starter. Therefore, despite being classified as a defender, the likelihood that Ake will be deployed in the midfield heightens his appeal.
Overall, the £4.5 priced Nathan Ake’s OOP potential and his ability to balance his defensive game with getting forward into the attack means that he is definitely a viable budget option for the 2016/17 FPL season.
Erik Lamela (TSB – 10.4%)
Over the past few seasons, Erik Lamela has shown glimpses of his potential and talent, but has yet to live up to the £25.8 million transfer fee that Tottenham paid for him. However, last season was promising for the 24 year old, and this season he is hoping to take a step up and develop into a world class player.
Lamela made 34 appearances for Tottenham last season, starting 28 of those matches. In those matches, he managed 5 goals and 9 assists. In total over the Premier League season, he managed 58 shots, with 20 on target and an impressive shot frequency of 1 shot every 41.12 minutes. In terms of creativity, he was even more impressive, with a chance created every 31.80 minutes. However, it was in the Europa League where Lamela impressed the most, registering 6 goals in 7 games, including a hat-trick vs Monaco. In these 7 matches, he managed 12 shots and created 12 chances, displaying his all round abilities. Furthermore, the goals have continued to come for Lamela as he improves as a player, scoring 2 goals for Argentina at the Copa America as well as 1 goal against Juventus and 1 goal and 1 assist against Inter Milan in preseason friendlies.
In addition Lamela’s appeal is heightened by his set piece threat. Although Eriksen if the primary set piece specialist at the club, Lamela still took 100 corners last season (126 for Eriksen) and frequently took free kicks. He also delivered 40 crosses from open play, with 36 of them coming from within 18 yards of the goal. Moreover, his ability to take on and get past his opponents bodes well, winning 58% of his take ons.
Last season, Lamela was stationed on the right of an attacking midfield trio on 18 of his 28 starts. He also started 2 matches at no.10 and 8 on the left. This demonstrates Lamela’s versatility. This season, it is highly likely that Lamela will be a nailed on starter on the right, with Alli at no.10 and Eriksen on the left.
With all this being said however, Lamela’s discipline irritated FPL managers last season. He committed 67 niggling fouls, picking up 9 yellow cards. However, as he matures, he should remove this from his game as it shouldn’t be much of a problem. In addition to this minor deterrent, with Tottenham having qualified for the Champions League, once that competition starts Lamela may be rested in some league games so that he can be fit for ‘the big games’ in the UCL.
Overall, Erik Lamela certainly has the potential to become one of the best players in the Premier League. His all round style of play as a creator and score, combined with his set piece threat and certainty of starts, definitely suggests that he may well outperform his miserly £7.0 price tag.
Ever
wondered what makes the top FPL managers tick? When do they play their
Wildcards? Why do they make their transfers? And how successful are
their captains picks?
Fantasy Premier League is a daily ritual for many, not merely a past-time, but a way of life. With Football Survivor, we’ve created a game which seamlessly fits into the average football fanatic’s day. Each week, each player, picks one team from the Premiership round of fixtures, to win their respective match. If they lose, you lose points, if they win, you don’t. It’s that simple. But there’s a catch… you can only pick each team once. A popular concept amongst many, the office, the university lecture hall, we’ve decided to generate the perfect platform for people to play. For our introductory post, we’ve decided to offer our expert advice on the opening weekend of the Premier League!
The Safe Pick: Hull City v. Leicester City
Will the greatest football story ever told get a sequel? Or will we see Leicester slide down the Premier League table? The Foxes stormed the BPL last season and completed the most unexpected, dramatic and sensational title win in living memory. With unprecedented style and swagger, a team which was almost relegated the season before, smashed their way past Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester City. Highlights included, Jamie Vardy breaking a premier league goals record, scoring in an unbelievable 11 consecutive matches, whilst Mahrez dazzled and terrified defences across the country, epitomised by his sensational solo effort in a 3-1 win at the Etihad Stadium. This summer, N’Golo Kante, arguably Leicester’s most fundamental player, has transferred to Stamford Bridge to line up alongside Conte’s new men. It’ll be interesting to see how the Foxes fare this season in their title defence. However uncertain there success may be, an opening weekend fixture win at newly promoted Hull City, currently without a manager, looks a banker. Certainly, if Morgan, Drinkwater, Mahrez and Vardy are on song, then Hull have no chance.
The Risky Pick: Bournemouth v. Manchester United
It seems strange saying that it is a risk backing Jose Mourinho to win his opening Premier League game. But, there really is no way of knowing how this is going to go. Mourinho brings with him, success, style and a lot of baggage. Chelsea’s pathetic defence of the title last season was largely explained by Mourinho’s poor temperament and stubbornness. Certainly, his treatment of Eva Caneiro, Chelsea’s doctor, earned him little praise and a lot of enemies. Similarly, United were abysmal, last season, finishing 5th. The rigidity of Van Gaal’s system resulted in the lowest number of goals scored by a Manchester United team in any Premier League season. Memphis Depay arrived as one of the hottest prospects in European football, but ended the season being left out of the FA Cup Final squad; perhaps a result of LVG’s anti-creativity style of football. Chants of ‘attack, attack, attack’ would regularly erupt inside Old Trafford, as United fans became as desperate as they were frustrated. This season, things might be drastically different. The arrival of Ibrahimovic, Mkhitaryan, Baily and potentially Paul Pogba, for a world record transfer fee, would spark immense excitement in Manchester. The million dollar question is whether Mourinho can rejuvenate this Untied team to the heights of Sir Alex Fergusson, or whether we are really seeing the steady decline of England’s biggest football club.
The FPL General, a two-time top 400 FPL manager, gives us some initial insight on his pre-season tinkering. Have a read at his ideas for team selection.
As August approaches, I have started to draft my FPL team for the season ahead. My most recent take (as shown below) will no doubt change many times before 13th August. This article will touch on some of my early thoughts on the season ahead and I will mention some players who are attracting my interest.
Before I discuss my current draft team, I should mention that I will most likely use my wildcard early this season, between gameweeks three and four which is the two-week international break. With so many managerial changes and doubts over the fitness of many players after this summer's international tournaments, I intend to set up my team with the first three gameweeks in mind. By the time the international break comes around, I will have a lot more knowledge regarding how each team is set up and which teams/players have hit the ground running. I will continue with my usual strategy of deploying a 3-4-3 formation.
Current draft
Forwards
The million dollar question for me in picking my initial squad this season is whether or not to include Zlatan Ibrahimovic alongside Sergio Aguero in my front three. Aguero is FPL gold in my opinion and he will always be in my team whenever fit. Of course, including Zlatan alongside him puts a serious strain on my budget. It weakens the rest of my squad but at present I believe he is worth it. United’s first three fixtures are very favourable and I expect the big Swede to come out of the blocks firing. With Zlatan and Aguero taking up two of my front three positions, I had to look for a budget option for the third striker's berth. Currently, I'm on Alvaro Negredo, but it's a toss up between him, Callum Wilson and Andre Gray. This position in my team is likely to chop and change quite a few times before the start of the season. Charlie Austin is another who I will be monitoring in the early weeks of the season. I see a lot of managers including Shane Long in their drafts but I'm not convinced. I'd much prefer a fully fit Austin.
Midfielders
Initially, I included Kevin De Bruyne in my first draft. He could well end up back in my team before August 13th. I opted to change him for Eden Hazard as I want some Chelsea coverage for the first couple of weeks. It's difficult to see how Conte is going to set up but I expect the Belgian to come back with a bang this season after his disappointing campaign in 2015/16. The Chelsea midfield offers some very good value this season with Cesc Fabregas, Willian and Pedro all priced at 7.5m. I don't plan to include any of these options in my Gameweek one squad but I will be keeping a close eye on them in the opening few weeks of the season.
Kevin Mirallas is a player I have big hopes for this season. He fell out of favour under Roberto Martinez but could well be rejuvenated under new coach Ronald Koeman. If he can force his way back into the starting eleven at Everton, he could be a steal at 6.5m. I will be keeping a close eye on Everton's pre season fixtures to gauge whether or not Mirallas is worth taking a punt on for Gameweek one.
Andros Townsend was an important part of my team at the back end of last season. He is a player I rate highly and I expect him to continue from where he left off last season. Townsend is one player I'm pretty sure will be in my squad for the first three Gameweek’s of the season.
My fourth midfield spot is currently taken up by Andre Ayew. He is a player I didn't own at any point last season. Ayew finished on 12 league goals last season and I expect him to improve on this. It looks as though he could be the main striker at Swansea which makes him very attractive being listed as a midfielder (out of position, potentially). I'm a big fan of Sigurdsson as well and it's a close call between the two of them. Ayew is shading it for now.
My fifth and final midfield spot will go to a 4.5m priced player who will warm my bench. I currently have Leko from West Brom who is showing promise in pre season but this position won't be finalised until closer to the start of the season.
Bojan is a player I have watchlisted. Listed as a midfielder he could play a lot further forward and I expect a better season from him after his injury problems last season. 6m for him could turn out to be great value but I won't invest in him initially. I can say the same about Jay Rodriguez who I will also monitor in the early weeks. I am intrigued to see what role Juan Mata will play for Man United under Mourinho. If Jose sees him as a key member of his squad he would offer serious value at 7.5m.
I'm willing to go without the likes of Mkhitaryan, Sanchez, Firmino, Mahrez, Payet, Ozil and Alli for the opening three gameweek’s and then reassess my options while playing my wildcard during the international break. At the same time, any one of these guys could be in my Gameweek one squad.
Defenders
Ronald Koeman's Southampton were solid defensively. This bodes well for Leighton Baines. Everton leaked goals under Martinez last season and Koeman's appointment should shore things up at the back. In addition, If Baines can get his fair share of set pieces, he is a no brainer at 5.5m. If Baines isn't on any set pieces, I prefer Seamus Coleman as an attacking threat from play at the same price. I expect Everton to start the season strongly with a decent run of fixtures in the early part of the season.
Antonio Conte is Italian. It goes without saying, Italians have a masterful knack for defending. This is why I will include a Chelsea defender in my team from gameweek one. With Kurt Zouma set to miss the start of the season I'm pinning my hopes on John Terry being a key member of Conte's Chelsea. I expect Chelsea to be very hard to break down this season and Terry is always a threat from set pieces.
I have seen few defenders who are as threatening as Virgil Van Dijk in the opposition's penalty area. I owned him for a period last season and he has a very good chance of keeping his place in my team for Gameweek one.
With Crystal Palace signing Steve Mandanda and James Tompkins, they should improve defensively on last season. Pape Souare offers good value at 4.5m and is a player who likes to attack. Palace's opening three fixtures are decent.
My fifth and final defender will be a 4m priced player who will be bench fodder. Currently it's Lenihan of Hull City mainly due to the fact that they have only 13 fit players at the moment so he has a good chance of getting game time. This position won't be finalised until closer to the start of the season.
If Charlie Daniels is still on penalties at Bournemouth he will find his way into my team at some point. He was a hero for me towards the end of last season. Patrick Van Aanholt is another player who is in my thoughts. I'm a big fan of Alberto Moreno but will avoid him for the time being with Liverpool's tough start. Manchester United should be solid defensively under Jose Mourinho and I have my eye on Luke Shaw but I will wait to see how he returns from such a long lay-off first.
Goalkeepers
If there is one area I feel I can improve on from last season it's my goalkeepers. In the past two seasons I've gone with one playing goalkeeper and played him every week. This season I will have two playing goalkeepers who I can rotate. I'm pretty sure I'll start the season with my current duo of Ben Foster and Tom Heaton at 4.5m each. Both keepers have proven themselves in previous seasons as worthy FPL options. I also expect West Brom and Burnley to be solid defensively.
Follow me on Twitteras I aim for a third consecutive top 400 finish in FPL!
Defenders are an important part of FPL. Don't underestimate them. In fact, over the
last decade, defenders have scored around 24% of the total points scored.
Which is nearly as much as forwards who scored an average of almost 27%. Thus, defenders
are valuable and need to be looked at thoroughly like forwards.
When picking your defenders you will need a few
budget players to help you afford the premium ones. A good way to find cheap
players is to look at the newly promoted teams.
All 3 teams secured at least 20 clean
sheets out of a possible 46. At a glance the most appealing two seem to be
Burnley and Middlesbrough, due to their upcoming fixtures and home games.
There are also your proven defender assets to go
along with and it is also key to look at FORM and ATTACKING
returns. Also keep in mind FIXTURES as they can help you plan your team
for the long run.
Middlesbrough
Claiming 22 clean sheets last season, they
seem to be the best pick out of the teams coming up. 15 came at home
making the Riverside Stadium a fortress. They conceded a total of 31
goals all season and only 8 at home and conceded a goal almost every 2 games. With their first 4 games being (STO/sun/wba/CPL)
they look a very good pick considering many will be priced at 4.5M and
with the signing of ex-Barcelona keeper Valdes. Friend looks a good option at
left back and created a lot of chances last season.
Burnley
The Clarets secured 20 clean sheets last season
only losing once at home. They have 3 home games in their first 4 games
(SWA/LIV/che/HUL/lei). They Come up against tougher opponents and will
be looking to keep it tight also with some easier ones clean sheets look a good
possibility. As long with the clean sheet chances, former Manchester united
player Michael Keane scored 5 goals and looks to be a set piece
threat. He has already scored in pre season and looks like a good option. Tom
Heaton earned an England call up after his performances last season. He could
rack up the save points this season like Gomes did last year and he could be a
perfect second keeper.
WBA
Under Tony Pulis West Brom have picked up 11
clean sheets last season. Unlike most teams they picked up most on the road
with 6. They have a very good set of fixtures (cpl/EVE/MID/bou/WHM/stk)
and being home or away isn’t a big concern for The Baggies. Craig Dawson
proved to be a good asset at 5.0 scoring 4 goals and averaging 1 shot
a game last season and should continue where he left off.
Manchester United
Now with Mourinho and his infamous "park the bus" play, they could become essential if they can get their tactics right. They have
signed Bailly who will look to partner Smalling along with Shaw
at left back, the right back spot could be up for grabs. With Schneiderlin,
Schweinsteiger or whoever will start in the CDM(s) role(s) will help solidify
the defence and finish off the game. United look a good option with fixtures of
(bou/SOU/hul/MCI/wat) and there could be attacking returns from the
likes of Shaw who might be lowly priced after his early end to last season. De
Gea also will be a popular pick from last season but may cost a fair bit.
Chelsea
After leaving the Italian national team and racking
up 3clean sheets out of 5 games at the Euro’s, Conte arrives at Stamford Bridge hoping to improve their fortunes immediately.
With the new signing of N’Golo Kante after a stellar season at Leicester,
Chelsea’s rearguard seems to be getting stronger and stronger. They also
have no Champions League distractions to worry about. With a possibility of Matic and Kante
in front of the Chelsea back line and the fixtures of (WHM/wat/BUR/swa/LIV)
Azpilicueta or Courtois are looking the best options. I think
it’s worth taking the gamble to see if Conte can match his defensive structure
like he did at Italy.
Manchester City
Man City’s defence was a bit of a liability last
season. Now under Pep Guardiola City’s fullbacks could be a good option as he
likes to use them in a very attacking way such as the likes of Jordi Alba and
David at Alaba at Barcelona and Bayern. However City’s fullbacks were rotated
heavily last season. If these spots become nailed down there could be great
chances created such as the like of Moreno and Bellerin had last season. If Kompany
can stay fit and if they can land a signing like Bonucci
along with the fixtures of (SUN/stk/WHM/mun/BOU/swa) a City defender
could come under consideration and become a viable pick.
Everton
Last season we found discovered that form was more important than fixtures. This may not strictly be the case again. Under new manager Ronald Koeman and a cracking set of fixtures (TOT/wba/STK/sun/MID/bou) there could be
some bargains from their back line. Koeman kept 12 clean sheets last season at
Southampton and the likes of Baines could be a great option if he can
nail the penalty taking duties and recover his form of 2 seasons ago. He also
could be under priced after last seasons mediocre performance.
You should hopefully be in good stead before your wildcard (unless you use it early) with a back line of 2 or 3 premium defenders, 1 or 2 mid priced defenders and 3 or 4 budget defenders.
Premium 2/3 = MNU/CHE/MCI/TOT
Mid-priced 1/2 = EVE/SWA/SOT
Budget 3/4 = MID/BUR/WBA/CRY
Thanks for taking the time to read my article. Best
of luck to the upcoming season and may your arrows be green!
Written by: Junior Finished 3.3k during the 2015/2016 season
With the new Premier League season almost upon us, Fantasy Football
addicts are frantically tracking transfers, following pre-season friendlies and
studying the fixture lists. Like all my FPL decisions, I base my GW1 squad on
two things: gut instinct and cold, hard stats. I won’t bore you with the inner
workings of my gut, but I do want to shed some light on the stats I use to get
the most out of my £100m starting budget.
I'm only considering value for money based on last year’s stats here and
you should use this information alongside fixtures, rotation, friendlies and
hunches. There’s no guarantee that last year’s form will carry over, but it’s
the only data we have at this point. The aim is to create a short-list of
players that represent good value and to identify any who may have slipped
under the FPL price-setters’ radar.
For each position I’ll be highlighting:
Star
Player - scores highly in all areas, though perhaps less so in value.
New
Arrival - a
player with good stats, who should do even better at his new club.
Hidden
Gem - a real find, someone with
good points/game who for one reason or another played less games last year
than I expect them to play this year.
Auto-rotation - low value, but very high points/game. This
player should be paired with a regular starter with decent value/game on
the bench. Think of it as fixture proof rotation.
Bargain
basement -
great value at a rock-bottom price.
My choices are based on a spreadsheet that takes Starting Price, Points
and Game-time from last season and calculates *Value, Points/Game and
Value/Game-time.
*NB: whenever I talk about value I'm referring to points/price, not
price.
Goalkeepers
Star Player - Pantilimon
I had him for most of last year and the reason was simple: no-one else
matches his points/game. His value is also high and will sky-rocket if he keeps
his place under Advocaat.
Consider: Fabianski, Mignolet
New Arrival - Petr Cech
No-brainer here. Petr Cech’s points/game ratio is extremely high and his
increased game-time at Arsenal will boost his value. I expect their defence to
improve with Cech in goal.
Hidden Gem - Butland
Jack Butland is Mark Hughes’ first choice keeper and if he can maintain
his points/game throughout the season he’ll offer unbeatable value.
Auto-rotation - Myhill
Boaz Myhill’s points/game was second to none whilst deputising for Ben
Foster last year. Given the uncertainty over Foster’s fitness in the short term
and Myhill’s low price, he is the ideal auto-rotation candidate. Pair him with
the likes of Ruddy on the bench.
Bargain basement - Ruddy
In order to judge Ruddy, I dropped his 2013/14 FPL stats into my
spreadsheet, so do bear this in mind. He scores highly for value as well as
value/game-time. The only area he falls short on is points/game, but if you’re
looking to save money then Ruddy’s your man. Whilst you’re at it, you could
pick Rudd as your bench warmer - he’s as cheap as the proverbial FPL chip.
Defenders
Star Player - Terry/Ivanovic
Take your pick, it’s so hard to split these two. Both offer unbeatable
points/game and, despite their premium price tag, both represent good value. If
you really can’t afford one of them in your team, then Azpilicueta and Jagielka
offer increased value for slightly fewer points/game.
Consider: Jagielka, Azpilicueta
New arrival - Clyne
Ever improving and now playing for a Liverpool side that sees attack as
the best form of defence, Nathaniel Clyne scores highly in all my stats and
offers better value than Terry or Ivanovic. Liverpool’s defence was comparable
to Southampton’s overall and his high transfer fee should ensure that game-time
isn't reduced.
Consider: Wisdom, Chester
Hidden Gem - Huth
Forget Bellerin, if Robert Huth can translate points/game into a long
stint in the first team, he’s the stand-out candidate here. Even with the
tinkerman in charge, I would expect him to double his game time and points
tally. If he did, his value would match that of Terry and Ivanovic.
Auto-rotation - Kolarov
Every year I think about playing Kolarov in this role and every year I
don’t. The stats say yes, but my gut says no. The fact of the matter is that
when he’s on the pitch Kolarov scores big points. Granted he will pick up the
odd one-pointer from a two-minute cameo, but more often than not he plays
against the lesser teams and he delivers with aplomb. Maybe this year my gut
will permit me to buy him.
Bargain basement - Morgan
Very hard to recommend a £4m defender when looking at last year’s stats
because they all played very few games and the promoted teams have no stats
(with the exception of Norwich players from two years ago). There are lots of
options at £4.5m, most carry some risk, but based on the stats alone I'm going
for Morgan. He may miss the opener, but he’s the stand-out option in that
price-bracket. Let’s hope the tinkerman thinks so too.
Consider: O’Shea, Martin Olsson
Midfielders
Star Player - Hazard
There are three candidates and none should come as a surprise. I'm
plumping for Eden Hazard, as he scores highly for value, points/game and
value/game. However, Sanchez and Fabregas are priced in such a way that you
essentially get what you pay for; there’s very little between them.
Consider: Sanchez, Fabregas
New Arrival - Sterling
Just short of the quality of those three is Raheem Sterling. If he can
benefit from Manchester City’s exuberant, attacking style, then he may just
surpass our star midfielders in all three categories. Beware though, if he
doesn't start well he could fall by the wayside, like so many of his
compatriots have at the Etihad.
Consider: Milner, Cabaye
Hidden Gem - Walcott
OK, so not very well hidden, nonetheless it’s hard to see how Theo
Walcott won’t increase his game-time from last year. With such a high points/game
ratio and the possibility of playing as a striker, it would take a brave
manager to leave him out, assuming he can stay fit.
Consider: Ward-Prowse, Deulofeu
Auto-rotation - Adam
Charlie Adam may not be the first name that springs to mind in
pre-season, but his points/game are impressive and at just £6m he would make an
excellent auto-rotating midfielder.
Consider: Rosicky, Osman
Bargain basement - Aarons
Price and game-time are so closely linked here that it’s hard to find
true value, but there are plenty of players with high points/game who could do
a useful job if they get a run in the side. I'm going for Newcastle’s Rolando
Aarons based on his points/game last year. However, as he only played four
times, I must confess my gut had a say in this.
Consider: Dyer, Albrighton
Forwards
Star Player - Kane
Despite his price hike, Harry Kane still offers good value for money
this year. It remains to be seen whether he can re-enact his breakthrough
season, but it’s frightening to think that if he does, his value will increase
due to increased game-time.
Consider: Ulloa, Berahino
New Arrival - Benteke
Benteke’s rebirth under Sherwood was perhaps even more impressive than
Adebayor’s under him at Spurs. If Liverpool can adapt their play to get the
most out of Benteke, then his value/game will rise sharply.
Consider: Ings, Adebayor
Hidden Gem - Adebayor
Despite only playing a handful of times last year, his points/game
remained high and he’s so good under Sherwood that he warrants another mention
here. If he gets anywhere near his 2013/14 stats he’ll make a mockery of his
£6m price tag.
Consider: Gomis, Rodriguez
Auto-rotation - Cisse
With a points/game ratio second only to Sergio Aguero (in Aguero’s best
season to date) Papisse Cisse is the archetypal auto-rotator. At just £6.5m,
back him up on the bench with a regular starter from one of the promoted clubs
and you’ll be in auto-rotation heaven.
Consider: Crouch, Gayle
Bargain Basement - Bojan
You’ll probably have to look at the promoted clubs to find cheap striker
options who play regularly. Instead I’ve picked three slightly more expensive
players, with good points/game, who should get extra game time and kick on from
last year (so a sort of budget hidden gem). Bojan stats lead the way here,
especially with the new additions at Stoke.
Consider: Ideye, Diafra Sakho
So there you have it. Hopefully by getting better value for money across
your team you’ll be able to squeeze in that extra big hitter you’ve been hoping
for.
