Friday, 7 August 2015

The change that never was (no regrets... yet!)

Hi all,

I was about to make one last change to my FPL team before Gameweek 1, which would have ensured £1.0m saved in the bank for a future purchase.  I wanted to swap Cech and Ivanovic for Courtois and Koscielny.  I considered doing this as it seems Aguero's return to fitness may be quicker than anticipated.  I also wanted to ensure that I could accommodate Sanchez into my FPL team, sooner rather than later.   Instead, I have come up with the following plan*:

GW2 - 0 transfers.
GW3 - Benteke & Sterling out / Aguero & Wanyama in (2 FTs).
GW4 - 0 transfers.
GW5 - Ivanovic & Ozil out / Gomez & Sanchez in (2 FTs).

Of course, the aforementioned plan is subject to price changes and other unavailability issues.  However, I think it makes more sense taking this patient approach so that I can fully assess their fitness and ascertain whether their form is back up to speed.

Regards,

*I reserve the right to deviate from this plan at any time.


Thursday, 6 August 2015

Chief's #FPL Team - Gameweek 1

Disclaimer: *FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will most likely be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter account.


CAPTAIN: HAZARD

CHIPS USED: 0


 FIRST SQUAD OF THE SEASON: 

CECH "Mate" (£5.5M) IN
Reason: I wanted Arsenal cover at the back.  I was close to buying Koscielny with Courtois between the sticks.  However, I think Cech offers more value than Courtois and will be looking to impress at the Emirates (he may even make more saves over the course of the season) which is why I opted for him.  In addition, I didn't want rotating goalies and 7 of Cech's first 10 PL fixtures are reasonable.

HENNESSEY "Hen" (£4.0M) IN
Reason: He may have 49 international caps to his name, but he's hardly started in the Premier League since 2012, which is a bit of a shame.  I'm not looking to boost his professional career - I have effectively bought him as dud sub goal keeper to free up funds elsewhere across the park.  He could start a few matches for Crystal Palace from August, but under Pardew's set up he's unlikely to keep many clean sheets.  This bodes well for my "fixture proof" goal keeper, Cech.

IVANOVIC "Ivan" (£7.0M) IN
 Reason: I could have easily bought Azpilicueta and saved £1M, but Ivanovic ("Ivan") is simply amazing.  He chalked up 10 attacking fantasy returns - goals and assists - last season with 17 clean sheets for good measure too.  Stats don't lie and he is FPL gold.  He is my fixture proof defender.  I intend to start him whether he plays at home or away, even against Man City in Gameweek 2. Expect Ivanovic to pop up in the opponents box as much as his own. The only thing that worries me is his yellow card risk (18 in the last two seasons alone).

HUTH "Bobby" (£4.5M) IN
 Reason: Here's more defensive coverage with a Chelsea association and of course another defender with attacking pedigree.  He is definitely not the same player from a few years ago; when scoring for fun at Stoke.  I only bought him due to Leicester's OK-ish rotation with Southampton.  In all likelihood, I will probably start him in GW 1 & GW 5 and then see how things go thereafter.

CEDRIC "Sid" (£5.0M) IN
Reason: He's a new arrival that has already seemingly cemented his place at right-back following the departure of Clyne. I expect Southampton to keep a similar number of clean sheets as last season.  In addition, Cedric is probably the best priced defensive player from Southampton that is likely to see regular game time.  Not bad upcoming fixtures also gave credence to his place in my squad.

FRANCIS "Fran" (£4.5M) IN
Reason: Bournemouth's first 8 fixtures aren't too bad (rotating well with West Ham) and it's for this reason I decided to get a defender from their team.  It seems that Francis has no real rivals in his position which made him appealing to me. He may even chip in with an assist here and there. Sure, some FPL managers show reluctance towards newly promoted teams' players. But ask yourself this, would you rather put one in defence or one as a starting striker? I know where I stand on that debate.

OXFORD "New Ox" (£4.0M) IN
Reason: My "secret player"! He's played the majority of West Ham's off-season games (including some Europa League qualifiers). He is listed as a defender but can operate as a midfielder.  I bought him as I wanted a cheap 5th defender so that I can invest more further up the pitch. I think he will start some PL matches.  I will even put him in my first XI on certain rare occasions.  Even if he hardly starts, he's perfect sub3 material for now while also being a hot prospect for the future.  Read more about him here.

OZIL "Oz" (£8.5M) IN
Reason: He's not exactly been that amazing since the first half of the 13/14 season. In many respects he has been a disappointment.  But with some speculation that he will play in a No10 role, he offers more value.  I think a lot of Arsenal's players can be chopped and changed including Walcott.  But for some reason, I fell that Ozil will probably be allowed to flourish in a specific position higher up the pitch.  In all honesty, if I had an extra £0.5M I would have probably risked it on Walcott.  Having said all that, I think this could be Ozil's season and he may prove a few doubters wrong.

HAZARD "Haz" (£11.5M) IN
Reason: Hazard did start a bit slow last season, but there's no denying that he came of age over the past 12 months.  His ability to cut in from the side and cause havoc in the opposition's final third is well documented.  Without a doubt, Hazard is the engine to Chelsea's attack.  As stated, he's an absolute must-have player.  I think he will do even better this season.  He can score (for fun).  He can assist (when required).  What more do you want your midfielder to do?

STERLING "£" (£9.0M) IN
Reason: He didn't make the first editions of my off-season FPL squad.  I wasn't too impressed with him last season.  But I realised that I needed Man City cover in midfield.  Silva's price seems inflated.  Yaya is cheaper, but may be squeezed back.  With no Aguero, I feel that Sterling can fill a void at the front.  He will be looking to make a good impression immediately after his protracted transfer saga.  Sure, Man City's opening fixtures aren't amazing, but they do have a knack of scoring goals and it's time they cashed in again with Sterling in their pocket.

CHADLI "Chad" (£7.0M) IN
Reason: Many FPL managers would balk at the thought of having Chadli in their team after not so great showings in the second half of the 14/15 season.  I understand that there were some valid reasons for this, so don't be too harsh on him.  With his amazing goalscoring ability, I think he's under-priced.  Sure, he's a rotation risk and will face stiff competition with Spurs' numerous midfielders.  But I think he has something special about him.  The fact he is scoring in pre-season is a good signal too.  I needed at least one attacking player from Tottenham due to their generous upcoming fixtures after GW1 and Chadli fitted the bill.

RITCHIE "Rich" (£6.0M) IN
Reason: I have a reluctance in picking too many (or any) attack-orientated players from newly promoted teams as they don't often score a lot.  However, I think Ritchie is a bit different.  His strike rate exceeded 33% last season, which is excellent for a midfielder at any level.  The fact he can also link up with Francis (also in my team) is an added bonus.  I needed a good 5th midfielder as I want to start off with a solid 3-5-2 formation.  He seems to be the best one priced at £6m.  I'm willing to give him a chance and I think he'll prove his worth.

ROONEY "Roo" (£10.5M) IN
Reason: I think Rooney was being wasted as a de facto central midfielder last season.  All that has now changed with the departure of Van Persie.  Sure, Man United may buy another striker before the transfer window closes.  But there's no denying Rooney's ability when playing in a no9 or no10 role - given a proper chance he will score 22+ goals a season.  He has proven himself in the top-flight and will be a focal point to Man United's attack.  With Costa and Aguero being unavailable from GW1, Rooney will fill a void for a large chunk of FPL managers.

BENTEKE "Teke" (£8.5M) IN
Reason: Liverpool needed a goal scoring forward with PL pedigree.  Benteke wanted a team that could offer newer challenges and enhance his talent to another level.  On paper this transfer makes perfect sense.  With Sturridge being absent, a 100% fit Benteke will be able to stamp his authority upfront from the onset.  Sure, he wasn't a forward in my FPL squad during mid-July.  However, his potency can't be overlooked and with the likes of Firmino and Milner behind him, he may score more goals than he did last season.

GRAHAM "Danny Boy" (£4.5M) IN
 Reason: I bought him as a dud sub so that I could accommodate a strong 3-5-2 formation.  I still can't believe he left Swansea for Sunderland when he could have easily secured a League Cup winners medal.  It's also strange to think that he scored 12 goals in his first PL season, yet in the 3 seasons thereafter he's accumulated a paltry 5 goals.  His FPL price has been almost static since 2011.  I'm not expecting much from him, 1-2 points on the bench is perfectly fine.


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Do you cash in on your star striker when he’s right at his peak, and invest the money into a youth system to bring through more stars in the future?

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Tuesday, 4 August 2015

6 Low-Cost Defensive Options in FPL

Guest post by @fplstag

Don't call me "low-cost"!

One thing became very clear to me as soon as I logged into my Fantasy Premier League account for the first time this season - defenders prices have suffered an unprecedented hike. Unfortunately, the days of having a few reliable super cheap defenders to choose from are well and truly gone.  Therefore, I'm writing this article to recommend a selection of viable yet not overly expensive defenders. Having them in your squad ahead of others could be the crucial difference this season.

Daryl Janmaat (Newcastle, 5.0)
I think we can all agree that Newcastle were absolutely terrible last season. It was pretty awful in the Pardew part of the season before John Carver brought them to even more horrendous lows.  In spite of all the difficulties, the Dutchman still racked up a goal and 6 assists in 37 appearances. I expect Janmaat to improve his attacking returns this season when he has better attackers to feed with his crosses such as the new signing Mitrovic from Anderlecht. It's worth noting that Newcastle's opening fixtures are not appealing. They play Southampton, Man United and Arsesnal in their first 5 games, so don't necessarily buy him from the onset.

James Chester (WBA, 5.0)
Every defender who plays under Tony Pulis is worth serious consideration for any FPL team. Pulis's effect on West Brom's fortunes last season when he came in was nothing short of unbelievable. He took their points per game up from 0.9 to 1.44 acquiring an impressive 10 clean sheets in his 18 games. £8 million is a big investment for a club like West Brom but it does guarantee that Chester will start when he's fit. Again, it's worth noting fixture difficulties. West Brom face Man City, Chelsea and Southampton in their first three games at the Hawthorns. However, Chester's fixtures will deliver more enticing potential from GW 6 onwards.

Cédric Soares (Southampton, 5.0)
The Saints' defence stunned all of us last season when they kept 15 clean sheets in 38 games. This total would surely have been higher had Fraser Forster not suffered his long term injury. Luckily for us, Koeman has brought in Maarten Stekelenburg to cover between the sticks in his absence. Cédric has been brought in to replace Clyne in the right back position. Going by his record for Sporting last season (P35 0G 3A) , we shouldn't expect many goals or assists from him but he represents the best way to get a foothold into a safe defensive unit.

Patrick van Aanholt (Sunderland, 5.0)
Last season, in the gloomy Stadium of Light, "PvA" stood alone as an appealing FPL option. In spite of Sunderland's meager goal returns, PvA still got a creditable 5 assists. After Dick Advocaat's arrival, Sunderland began to play football again. We can expect Sunderland's usually fairly solid defence to maintain its strength while attacking returns improve. Unlike some of the other teams mentioned above, Sunderland have very attractive opening fixtures. Hence, PvA is a seriously tempting pick.

Joe Gomez (Liverpool, 4.5)
The young full back has suddenly come to the fore in pre-season since arriving at Merseyside from Charlton. He has seemingly displaced Alberto Moreno in the battle for the left back slot. He is skillful, quick and isn't afraid to get forward. At 6ft 2, Gomez offers The Reds an outlet they lacked last season when they consistently conceded from corners due to their inability to challenge in the air. Rodgers couldn't possibly have missed this! If you need any more convincing that Gomez will start versus Stoke on GW1, look no further than the recent quote from Rodgers. He said "I wouldn't have any issue (with Gomez playing)". James Pearce from the Liverpool Echo is also reporting that Gomez has jumped Moreno in the pecking order.

Leandro Bacuna (Aston Villa, 5.0)
The Dutchman has been playing on the right side of midfield in pre-season, which has boosted my interest in him due to his out of position (OOP) potential. He is one of Villa's main free kick takers  and delivers crosses by the bucket-load. Last season he averaged a cross every 15.3 minutes and got 5 assists despite limited game time. His crosses will become more dangerous for opposition defences after Villa snapped up Gestede from Blackburn to try and fill the void left by Benteke. Last season, he scored the most headers of any player in England's top 4 leagues. A large drawback to any Villa defender is the huge doubt over their ability to keep clean sheets. Tactical Tim prefers an attacking style of football which often leaves their defence wide open. Bacuna is the riskiest pick on this list but the rewards are more than tantalising!

Tweet me @FPLStag if you want to get in touch!

@FanFeud Podcast - Gameweek 1 (#FPL)


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Monday, 3 August 2015

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Sunday, 2 August 2015

Is Reece Oxford the new Rio Ferdinand?

*** Credit to @FPL_Fly for bringing Reece Oxford to my attention ***
(this article is written on his behalf)

Reece is probably not the new Rio.  But he can be the next Michael Carrick or even be converted into a Joe Cole lite.  Aged 16, he's played the majority of West Ham's pre-season matches (including Europa League qualifiers) and has even captained the Hammers!  His physical stature and composure is formidable for such a young talent.  Is he a future England international in the making? Potentially.  It may be premature to praise a player based on a dozen performances outside of top-flight football against lesser opposition.  But in the context of fantasy football he is an exciting prospect and could be potent.  Ask yourself this; isn't it remarkable that such a young player has played/started so many matches for a Premier League club in a short space of time?

Crucially, in the world of FPL, he is listed as a defender - even though he has been starting as a midfielder under Slaven Bilic.  This means he is an "out-of-position" player (OOP) and at £4.0M he's probably the cheapest one around.  Will he immediately make an impact and start for West Ham in the Premier League? Unlikely.  But the indications do seem positive that he will get game time in the Premier League this season after a string of impressive performances in the summer.  If you already have a strong team and are looking for one last cheap player to fit into your squad he fits the bill.  Having said all that he could be the FPL version of the next Kyle Bartley! Take caution.  But in all seriousness, he could be a locked-in FPL player for the next 15-20 years.  As things stand he is in my squad as sub3 fodder.

Here's the caveated praise Reece Oxford has been receiving on Twitter...








Looking behind and looking ahead

For me the true thrill of FPL isn't about Berbatov scoring 5 goals on a cold winter's day or Aguero netting 4 times at lunch time.  It's about those differentials and the not-so-big-club players that succeed.  It's about Clint "Captain America" Dempsey and his herculean efforts in a mediocre team.  It's about Christian Benteke scoring a Monday Night Football hat-trick for a below-par Aston Villa.  It's about Robert Huth bagging 2 goals and an assist in a team that primarily parks the bus.  It's about Ryan Bennett somehow being in your team as he scores, keeps a clean sheet and bags 3 bonus points in a very low scoring Gameweek.  It's about Steven Whittaker being your sub 2 while scoring and assisting, only for the auto-sub to work in your favour!  Form is key.  Class doesn't matter. FPL is about all those things and so much more.

It's incredible to think how much FPLH has grown since September 2011.  A lot has happened with various developments and yet we remain one of the oldest running fantasy football blogs to have provided continuous weekly hints (147 Gameweeks and counting).   That's no easy task and all good things must come to an end at some point.  In fact, many have tried and packed it in.  There's all the more pressure for us as FPLH's fantasy football team is published before each Gameweek.  Failure isn't an option.  Fortunately, top 1.1% finishes has been our standard (with one amazing finish* in particular).  In addition, we've looked beyond FPL too, with our involvement with other platforms garnering some success** while retaining our focus on FPL.

Looking ahead to the 15/16 season, we intend to publish our blog's fantasy football team on a weekly basis - at least 12-24 hours before the Gameweek deadline.  Gone are the days when it would be published 3-4 days in advance.  Too many variables are now in play.  With that said, the way we select our players will be reliant on statistics, more so than ever before.  I think algorithm-based statistics are the present and future of fantasy football.  This is not to say that I won't pick players on a hunch or due to old-fashioned research.  But in some ways, automating the methodology is a cutting edge approach which will make the blog's fantasy football team selections a lot easier - and yours too.  I'm not implying that they will predict the future or get you maximum points every Gameweek, but they are a very useful aid.

The blog will also have some new writers for the 15/16 season and they will carry on the fine legacy set out by some of our previous standard bearers, such as Matej, Walt and Fly.  Each brought their own personality and contributed to the blog's success.  They demonstrated that you can succeed in playing the game in multiple ways while having fun!  In addition, despite the blog's name FPLH won't limit itself to FPL.  Once again, we will also be involved in other fantasy football platforms.  We may even produce (or be involved) in some live shows...

On a final note, thank you to you the readers that have allowed us to attain 1,500,000+ blog hits.  Thank you to those on Twitter that have allowed us to attain 10,000+ followers.  Thank you to our partners for their support - they have empowered us and without them we wouldn't be able to produce FPL hints on a weekly basis.


*FPLH's fantasy football team finished 110th in 2011/2012.
**FPLH finished 9th overall in PlayTogga's inaugural Perfect XI game last season.