Showing posts with label GW1. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GW1. Show all posts

Thursday, 6 August 2015

Chief's #FPL Team - Gameweek 1

Disclaimer: *FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will most likely be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter account.


CAPTAIN: HAZARD

CHIPS USED: 0


 FIRST SQUAD OF THE SEASON: 

CECH "Mate" (£5.5M) IN
Reason: I wanted Arsenal cover at the back.  I was close to buying Koscielny with Courtois between the sticks.  However, I think Cech offers more value than Courtois and will be looking to impress at the Emirates (he may even make more saves over the course of the season) which is why I opted for him.  In addition, I didn't want rotating goalies and 7 of Cech's first 10 PL fixtures are reasonable.

HENNESSEY "Hen" (£4.0M) IN
Reason: He may have 49 international caps to his name, but he's hardly started in the Premier League since 2012, which is a bit of a shame.  I'm not looking to boost his professional career - I have effectively bought him as dud sub goal keeper to free up funds elsewhere across the park.  He could start a few matches for Crystal Palace from August, but under Pardew's set up he's unlikely to keep many clean sheets.  This bodes well for my "fixture proof" goal keeper, Cech.

IVANOVIC "Ivan" (£7.0M) IN
 Reason: I could have easily bought Azpilicueta and saved £1M, but Ivanovic ("Ivan") is simply amazing.  He chalked up 10 attacking fantasy returns - goals and assists - last season with 17 clean sheets for good measure too.  Stats don't lie and he is FPL gold.  He is my fixture proof defender.  I intend to start him whether he plays at home or away, even against Man City in Gameweek 2. Expect Ivanovic to pop up in the opponents box as much as his own. The only thing that worries me is his yellow card risk (18 in the last two seasons alone).

HUTH "Bobby" (£4.5M) IN
 Reason: Here's more defensive coverage with a Chelsea association and of course another defender with attacking pedigree.  He is definitely not the same player from a few years ago; when scoring for fun at Stoke.  I only bought him due to Leicester's OK-ish rotation with Southampton.  In all likelihood, I will probably start him in GW 1 & GW 5 and then see how things go thereafter.

CEDRIC "Sid" (£5.0M) IN
Reason: He's a new arrival that has already seemingly cemented his place at right-back following the departure of Clyne. I expect Southampton to keep a similar number of clean sheets as last season.  In addition, Cedric is probably the best priced defensive player from Southampton that is likely to see regular game time.  Not bad upcoming fixtures also gave credence to his place in my squad.

FRANCIS "Fran" (£4.5M) IN
Reason: Bournemouth's first 8 fixtures aren't too bad (rotating well with West Ham) and it's for this reason I decided to get a defender from their team.  It seems that Francis has no real rivals in his position which made him appealing to me. He may even chip in with an assist here and there. Sure, some FPL managers show reluctance towards newly promoted teams' players. But ask yourself this, would you rather put one in defence or one as a starting striker? I know where I stand on that debate.

OXFORD "New Ox" (£4.0M) IN
Reason: My "secret player"! He's played the majority of West Ham's off-season games (including some Europa League qualifiers). He is listed as a defender but can operate as a midfielder.  I bought him as I wanted a cheap 5th defender so that I can invest more further up the pitch. I think he will start some PL matches.  I will even put him in my first XI on certain rare occasions.  Even if he hardly starts, he's perfect sub3 material for now while also being a hot prospect for the future.  Read more about him here.

OZIL "Oz" (£8.5M) IN
Reason: He's not exactly been that amazing since the first half of the 13/14 season. In many respects he has been a disappointment.  But with some speculation that he will play in a No10 role, he offers more value.  I think a lot of Arsenal's players can be chopped and changed including Walcott.  But for some reason, I fell that Ozil will probably be allowed to flourish in a specific position higher up the pitch.  In all honesty, if I had an extra £0.5M I would have probably risked it on Walcott.  Having said all that, I think this could be Ozil's season and he may prove a few doubters wrong.

HAZARD "Haz" (£11.5M) IN
Reason: Hazard did start a bit slow last season, but there's no denying that he came of age over the past 12 months.  His ability to cut in from the side and cause havoc in the opposition's final third is well documented.  Without a doubt, Hazard is the engine to Chelsea's attack.  As stated, he's an absolute must-have player.  I think he will do even better this season.  He can score (for fun).  He can assist (when required).  What more do you want your midfielder to do?

STERLING "£" (£9.0M) IN
Reason: He didn't make the first editions of my off-season FPL squad.  I wasn't too impressed with him last season.  But I realised that I needed Man City cover in midfield.  Silva's price seems inflated.  Yaya is cheaper, but may be squeezed back.  With no Aguero, I feel that Sterling can fill a void at the front.  He will be looking to make a good impression immediately after his protracted transfer saga.  Sure, Man City's opening fixtures aren't amazing, but they do have a knack of scoring goals and it's time they cashed in again with Sterling in their pocket.

CHADLI "Chad" (£7.0M) IN
Reason: Many FPL managers would balk at the thought of having Chadli in their team after not so great showings in the second half of the 14/15 season.  I understand that there were some valid reasons for this, so don't be too harsh on him.  With his amazing goalscoring ability, I think he's under-priced.  Sure, he's a rotation risk and will face stiff competition with Spurs' numerous midfielders.  But I think he has something special about him.  The fact he is scoring in pre-season is a good signal too.  I needed at least one attacking player from Tottenham due to their generous upcoming fixtures after GW1 and Chadli fitted the bill.

RITCHIE "Rich" (£6.0M) IN
Reason: I have a reluctance in picking too many (or any) attack-orientated players from newly promoted teams as they don't often score a lot.  However, I think Ritchie is a bit different.  His strike rate exceeded 33% last season, which is excellent for a midfielder at any level.  The fact he can also link up with Francis (also in my team) is an added bonus.  I needed a good 5th midfielder as I want to start off with a solid 3-5-2 formation.  He seems to be the best one priced at £6m.  I'm willing to give him a chance and I think he'll prove his worth.

ROONEY "Roo" (£10.5M) IN
Reason: I think Rooney was being wasted as a de facto central midfielder last season.  All that has now changed with the departure of Van Persie.  Sure, Man United may buy another striker before the transfer window closes.  But there's no denying Rooney's ability when playing in a no9 or no10 role - given a proper chance he will score 22+ goals a season.  He has proven himself in the top-flight and will be a focal point to Man United's attack.  With Costa and Aguero being unavailable from GW1, Rooney will fill a void for a large chunk of FPL managers.

BENTEKE "Teke" (£8.5M) IN
Reason: Liverpool needed a goal scoring forward with PL pedigree.  Benteke wanted a team that could offer newer challenges and enhance his talent to another level.  On paper this transfer makes perfect sense.  With Sturridge being absent, a 100% fit Benteke will be able to stamp his authority upfront from the onset.  Sure, he wasn't a forward in my FPL squad during mid-July.  However, his potency can't be overlooked and with the likes of Firmino and Milner behind him, he may score more goals than he did last season.

GRAHAM "Danny Boy" (£4.5M) IN
 Reason: I bought him as a dud sub so that I could accommodate a strong 3-5-2 formation.  I still can't believe he left Swansea for Sunderland when he could have easily secured a League Cup winners medal.  It's also strange to think that he scored 12 goals in his first PL season, yet in the 3 seasons thereafter he's accumulated a paltry 5 goals.  His FPL price has been almost static since 2011.  I'm not expecting much from him, 1-2 points on the bench is perfectly fine.


Wednesday, 17 June 2015

2015/16 #FPL fixtures - Initial thoughts and reaction


For all intents and purposes the 2015/2016 season has effectively begun.  Of course, it's too early to say who will win the Premier League.  The lack of real-time transfers and usual transfer gossip is indicative of the early pre-season period.  But I feel that we have enough information at hand to look at some interesting fixture patterns which may influence our initial picks.  For instance, Steve McClaren's return to the North East could be problematic as his team faces Southampton (H), Man United (A), Arsenal (H), Chelsea (H) and Man City (A) in 5 of their first 8 matches.  Such a difficult patch may mean another relegation run for the beleaguered Geordies.  In fact, McClaren may already be a hot favourite for the first sacking of the season without a ball being kicked!

Another manager who will be very anxious is Brendan Rodgers.  Liverpool ended the season on a downer and are still bogged down with the "Will he? Won't he?" Raheem Sterling saga.  To top this off the early signings of Bogdan, Milner and Ings are hardly inspiring to say the least and don't exactly ooze Champions' League material.  But what's even worse is their upcoming run of away games.  Having a quick glance, Liverpool's first "easiest" away game won't come until December 19th v Watford!  This means that Liverpool need to secure a virtually perfect home record before the end of the year so that they can cater for any bumps on their away journeys.  Ironically, this also means that rotating Liverpool defenders will be a lot easier for FPL manages in the first half of the season, as you could bench them away from home with almost no worry.

Looking at the newly promoted teams, their run of games varies considerably and will offer different narratives throughout the season.  For instance, Bournemouth's first 8 Gameweeks are relatively reasonable but this is offset by the fact that their December fixtures are very hard and they could come unstuck by the midway point.  Watford's final 6 games of the season aren't too difficult and this could be key if they are stuck in an expected relegation battle.  As for Norwich, they have a tricky August but could potentially make up lost ground between September-October.

Finally, the fixtures of the Top 4 teams are probably the most interesting.  Man United have a good run of games in the first half of the season, specifically in November and December.  But crucially, their April and May fixtures aren't too bad either, which will complement their chance of a semi-serious title challenge for the 2015/16 season, subject to some decent transfers.  Bale, anyone?  Chelsea's fixtures are relatively balanced month by month, but they could fill their boots during December.  Failure to do so could be a make or break point for them.  In relation to this, City's mid-November to mid-December games could be even more problematic and their final 5 games of the season aren't exactly that fantastic either.  As for Arsenal, they have a mixed bunch of "easy" and "difficult" games for each month of the season.  However, their March-May games are fairly decent and winnable, which could put them in good stead if they are pressing for the title around that time.

There you have it.  I look forward to tinkering with my team once the game resets around early-mid July.  If you haven't already done so, you're welcome to join the @FPLHints League by entering the code 9672-5608 (only valid until the game resets - don't use it afterwards).  Aside from that, I will be picking my team a bit differently in the upcoming season.  I will hopefully be relying on algorithms.  Keep an eye out for this method from early July!

Tuesday, 12 August 2014

Best Assisting Defenders in the Premier League #FPL

Following on from my "Best Goalscoring Defenders" post, I'm back with another dosage of results from FPLH's Algorithm.  This time around I wanted to know who was the "best pound-for-pound" assisting defender in the Premier League.  More precisely, from the last two Premier League seasons (since 2012/2013).  In my estimation an assist rate of 12.5% or more (or thereabouts) is exceptional for a defender.  In producing the aforementioned results I looked at a number of factors such as the first 10 upcoming Gameweek fixtures of each player (up to the first week of November 2014), assists/assist rates since 12/13, 14/15 starting prices and latest ownership which amalgamated into producing the FPLH Algorithm scores.  Please note; our algorithm score doesn't factor in non-Premier League goals, any assists, injuries, potential suspensions or possible squad rotation risk.


Click to view in full
Top 5 "Algorithm Score" Assist Players:

1. Nathaniel Clyne.
2. Jose Enrique.
3. Aleksandar Kolarov.
4. Leighton Baines.
5. Kyle Walker.

Total Value: £29M

Top 5 Players - "Best Assist Attributes":

1. Nathaniel Clyne (FPLH Algorithm Score).
2. Aleksandar Kolarov (Most Assists).
3. Jose Enrique(Best Assist Rate).
4. Matthew Lowton (Best Differential).
5. Matthew Lowton (Cheapest Price)

Total Value: £24M

Honourable Mentions (Not in our list):

1. Luke Shaw.
2. Kieran Trippier.
3. Joel Ward.
4. Phil Jones.
5. Luke Chambers.

As with the previous goalscoring defenders article, I know that this post has also thrown up some surprises.  Clyne seems to be the best all-round assist-orientated defender and like goalscoring-Fonte could flourish with their recent experience and good run of games.  However, unsurprisingly, none of the top 10 of the best assisting defenders from my spreadsheet are centre-backs.  They are the full backs who make the marauding runs, do the precision crosses or simply get the ball to their team's attackers by any means necessary.  Incidentally, none of the Algorithm Top 3 have played 60+ games over the last two seasons, which may inadvertently show them up as rotation risks.  Moreover, Baines made my Top 5 in the goalscoring and assisting category which makes him a banker for any FPL team.

With the culmination of both articles, this still begs the question, should you focus on getting assist making full-backs or goalscoring centre-backs?  Looking at the stats, the best assisters are full-backs who incidentally seem to be cheaper than the goalscoring centre-backs.  This ticks one box.  But the game changer for me is the new change in bonus points calculation rules.  As per the article on FFS, it seems that attacking full-backs will benefit the most.  As a result, I may configure my team to have 3 or 4 attacking full-backs and only 1 or 2 goalscoring centre-backs.  Ultimately, it's your call.  I hope you have found my FPLH Algorithm articles beneficial and that the supposed theory can be backed up by the real life practical come Gameweek 1.

Monday, 11 August 2014

Best Goalscoring Defenders in the Premier League #FPL

With the 2014/2015 season fast approaching, I thought it best to once again crunch some numbers with our bespoke algorithm.  I wanted to know who was the "best pound-for-pound" goalscoring defender in the Premier League.  More precisely, from the last two Premier League seasons (since 2012/2013).  In my estimation a strike rate of 10% or more (or thereabouts) is exceptional for a defender.  In producing the aforementioned results I looked at a number of factors such as the first 10 upcoming Gameweek fixtures of each player (up to the first week of November 2014), goals/strike rates since 12/13, 14/15 starting prices and latest ownership which amalgamated into producing the FPLH Algorithm scores.  Please note; our algorithm score doesn't factor in non-Premier League goals, any assists, injuries, potential suspensions or possible squad rotation risk.

Here are our results:

Click to view in full
Top 5 "Algorithm Score" Players:

1. Jose Fonte
2. Martin Skrtel
3. John Terry
4. Steven Caulker
5. Leighton Baines

Total Value:  £30M

Top 5 Players - "Best Attributes":

1. Jose Fonte (FPLH Algorithm Score).
2. Leighton Baines (Most Goals).
3. Martin Skrtel (Best Strike Rate).
4. Phil Bardsley (Best Differential).
5. Steven Caulker (Cheapest Price*)

Total Value: £28.5M
*Joint cheapest with Bardsley in our list.

Honourable Mentions (Not in our list):

1. Ben Davies.
2. Dejan Lovren.
3. Gareth McAuley.
4. Jan Vertonghen.
5. Ellaquim Mangala.

I know that the results will come as a surprise for many.  But bare in mind they give a favourable bias to goals scored by defenders in the PL over the last two seasons.  I didn't even bother to think about Fonte till I crunched the numbers, but I might try and fit him into my team now.  So now you know...  Don't delay and get tinkering!

Thursday, 15 August 2013

FPL Hints - Gameweek 1

Disclaimer: *FPLH reserves the right to change this team at any time. Any changes made will most likely be confirmed on FPLH's Twitter account.



Folks, I'm back!  Well I didn't go anywhere over the summer did I now?  If you're a super loyal FPLH fan, you may have noticed a few changes over the summer.  Some of the upgrades are as follows:



More changes are expected over the course of the season.  But at the very least, I intend to continue my Gameweek 1-38 series; hence this post!  So here we go...

As you can see from my team (posted above), it's very attack-heavy.  I think Van Persie's price isn't inflated at all and reflects his true value.  On the other hand, I think Dzeko is a bargain!  With City offloading Balotelli in January and Tevez over the summer, the Bosnian will get more first team opportunities than previously.  My other striker is Soldado.  Sure he is new to the Premier League, but his La Liga record speaks for itself.  Quality is costly.  In summary my strike force equate's to £10.3M per head.

My midfield is also attack-orientated, albeit not as expensive as my striker force.  I would argue that all 4 of my first-team midfielders have a knack of either scoring or assisting goals fairly regularly, which is a must in FPL!  Hazard is by far my most integral midfielder and I have captained him, due to Chelsea's Double Gameweek against weaker opposition (Hull & Aston Villa respectively).  Downing could be West Ham's main assist provider.  As for Snodgrass and Morrison; this Scottish pairing are under-rated, under-valued but should not be underestimated (see their stats).  With that said, my first-team midfield comes to £7M per head which may be substantially lower than many other FPL teams.

Moving on to my defence and goalkeeper, they are relatively balanced.  I have specifically picked Cech and Ivanovic with DGW in mind.  I was going to pick Mertesacker, but chose Gibbs due to his differential nature.  Toure isn't attack minded, but a steady selection nonetheless.  My back 3 + GK cost approximately £5.9M per head, which doesn't sound like a lot.  But why would you want to spend so much at the back when the points are more likely to be scored at the front?

My captain for GW1 is Hazard and my vice-captain is Ivanovic, again DGW-influenced.




GW Reject:

CAMERON JEROME

GW Punt:

JACK WILSHERE

GW Hot Pick:

EDEN HAZARD



Why?

Has a Double Gameweek.
Scored 190 FPL points last season.
He regularly scores as well as assists.


FPLH's GW Star Picks:

Cech

Ivanovic
Gibbs
Kompany

Coutinho
Hazard (c)
Snodgrass
Nolan

Van Persie
Soldado
Dzeko

Subs:
Mignolet
Jonhson
Morrison
O'Brien