5 Young #FPL Punts & Differentials for 15/16 (Guest Post)

I tried looking at some young inexperienced players who can potentially make a big impact for their Premier League teams in the 2015/2016 season and act as punts for FPL managers.  In effect, I was trying to search for the next Sterling, Kane, OxCham, Barkley or Lukaku!  It's unlikely that most or all of the aforementioned players will play first team football from the onset - but keep an eye on them!

Rolando Aarons £5.0M (Newcastle)

19 yrs old.  He apparently prefers to play on the left wing but can play on the right wing as well.  Aarons scored twice in 5 appearances for England Under-20 and once for Newcastle in 4 games before getting injured last season.  I think there is a bit of Zaha and Sterling about him. In fact, if I am not mistaken, Alan Pardew has likened him to Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain!  Aarons has pace and can tirelessly run up and down the flanks.  Crucially, he has already scored two goals (a long range effort and an overhead kick) and set up a third goal in pre-season. I think he seems to be a very good 5th midfielder option.

Jack Grealish £5.5M (Aston Villa) 

19 yrs old. Can operate through the right, left or centre of midfield.  He was the FAI Under-17 and Under – 21 International Player of the Year: 2012  and 2015 respectively.  Grealish was instrumental in Villa’s fight against relegation and played a major role in booking their place in last season's FA Cup Final. He created a chance every 36mins and also had a shot every 38mins in the last 4 games. He had an impressive 87% pass success rate in the final third too (Better then Eden Hazard on average). Now with Benteke and Delph long gone we can seriously expect Tim to develop Jack and hand him major responsibilities like he did with Harry at Spurs. Should definitely start and might have his fair share of set pieces too!

Jordan Ibe £5.0M (Liverpool) 

19 yrs old.  Can play on the right wing and left wing as well as in the wing back positions.  He spent half of last season on loan at Derby County showing his nascent talent.  During that time he scored 5 goals and assisted 1 but created 3+ chances every game he played.  During his return to Liverpool in the second half of the season he showed great character and versatility. He has good pace and is definitely part of Liverpool's future. Initially he will be used as a bit part player, but an injury or suspension to another player may open the door for him again.

Patrick Bamford £6.0M (Crystal Palace) 

21 yrs old.  He's effectively a centre forward but can play on the wings too.  Patrick Bamford was named Sky Bet Championship Player of the Year (2014-15) after scoring 17 goals in 37 games. He also created 25+ chances for his Boro teammates. If he can establish himself as Palace's no1 striker he will score at regular intervals - especially when he will get support from the likes of Zaha Puncheon, Cabaye and Bolasie. It remains to be seen if he will start immediately, but don't rule out Pardew from doing so.

Dele Alli £5.0M (Spurs) 

19 yrs old.  A central midfielder that can play on the left and further up the field.  He is exactly what Spurs need - a consistent goal scoring midfielder with pace and great heading ability. Alli managed to bag 16 goals and 11 assists in 2014/15 and was named in last season's PFA Football League One Team of the Year.  Has the capability to replace  and surpass Dembele and Mason. In fact he already scored 1 in a behind the doors friendly vs. Brentford.  Of course, Premier League football is trickier than League One.  But watch out, he may cause a surprise or two.

Written by

BlueAsh18

Should you have a sugar tooth for Toffees? (Guest Post)

Everton have historically provided FPL managers standout options at good value.  Baines and Coleman have long dominated defensive point tables with both goals and assists, while Lukaku, Mirallas, and Barkley to a lesser extent offer potent fantasy threats.  Manager Roberto Martinez plays a possession-based game in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, with defenders expected to play the ball out of the back behind a double pivot as wingbacks overload the opposition half and allow wingers to cut inside.  Despite this, Everton failed to meet FPL expectations last season.
 

Don't get stuck with too many Toffees in your mouth!

The team finished 11^th after posting 5^th and 6^th place finishes the two years prior, and failed to deliver consistent fantasy returns from ANY of their attacking players.  I firmly believe the men in blue are still worth consideration.  However, Everton’s FPL returns are situational.

Their results can be explained: the Toffees reached the Europa League quarterfinals and racked up injuries along the way.  Everton missed at least one of their first choice back four in over 70% of their fixtures.  Lukaku struggled for fitness early, while Baines’ chances of entering the pantheon of eternal FPL glory were shattered by February thigh/knee injuries.  Baines also received ankle surgery in May, and may be questionable despite returning for pre-season.

Everton no longer play in the Europa League and their underlying threats are still worth looking at.  Unfortunately, their early matches aren’t.

First 10 games: 

Watford (H)
Southampton (A)
Man City (H)
Spurs (A)
Chelsea (H)
Swansea (A)
West Brom (A)
Liverpool (H)
Man United (H)
Arsenal (A)

Beyond a cushy home game against Watford to begin the season, Everton face a terrifying series of fixtures.  Their strong defensive assets will struggle to build confidence, let alone their offence that Martinez will continue to tinker with through the start of the season.

Verdict: My brain says no, but my heart says absolutely not, **** no.  AVOID.

Games 11-20:

Sunderland (A)
West Ham (H)
Aston Villa (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Norwich (A)
Leicester (H)
Newcastle (A)
Stoke (H)
Spurs (H)

The Toffees face a much kinder run of games afterwards, with brilliant home games and zero matches against the top four.    The team is also noted for rallying in the second half of the season (an almost inevitable constant across recent seasons under previous manager Moyes and successor Martinez)—in their last stint, Everton’s strongest spell was a six game streak through March and April with 5 wins and 1 draw, including a 3-0 win over Manchester United and four clean sheets.  The year before, with now-permanent Lukaku, Barry, and Deulofeu on loan, they again posted an 8/10 win record through March and April with strong home wins against Arsenal and United.

Verdict:  You should BUY as form permits; games against Sunderland and West Ham will provide a more reliable measure of how the team fares against a constant string of relatively weaker opposition.  This period offers strong promises of clean sheets and attacking returns alike due to Everton's ability to retain possession and bully weaker teams.  Even the likes of West Ham and Tottenham tend to rely on outscoring opposition and will play the Blues on Everton turf.

Everton demands notice from FPL managers in the mid to late season.  Those playing GW8 or 11 wildcards should pay extra attention.

Before jumping into player reviews, I have to mention that the Toffees lacked any major creative spark aside from Baines, who accounted for 20% of all chances.  Hopefully they will pick up a creative midfielder to take the burden off and jump-start Barkley/Lukaku.  Incidentally, Lukaku provided 11% of chances, Coleman 10%, and Barkley 9%.   This could be an issue when evaluating Everton attackers later.

GOALKEEPERS

Howard – 5.0
American hero and guaranteed starting goalkeeper with plenty of saves in him.  Howard topped the FPL goalkeeper charts two years ago, but last season garnered a mediocre 10 clean sheets, tying with Hull/Villa/Burnley/Leicester and barely beating West Ham and Spurs.   I expect the opening 10 games to crush his dreams.  Only worth consideration in the next 10 dependent on his back line’s form.

Robles – 4.0
Backup.  Ignore without fear.

DEFENDERS

Baines – 6.5
Fantasy gold.  Gave fantasy owners 4.5ppg last season even without clean sheets to back him up, behind only Chelsea’s Ivanovic, Terry, and Azpilicueta.  Baines has been consistently at the top of defender point returns for years.  He’ll dominate corners and free kicks; however, Martinez has recently given his penalty duties to Lukaku.  May prove too expensive, but is fixture proof if fit through weeks 11-20.  Furthermore, Martinez has rotated him at CM/CDM similar to Lahm.

Coleman – 6.0
Possibly the most threatening right back in the league.  3 goals and 2 assists last year, and 6/2 the year before.  Undroppable if fit and an extremely solid core defender for mid-season if Baines is injured or 6.5 isn’t available.
 
Jagielka – 5.5

Bonus point magnet, especially with the new changes rewarding CBs.  This England international will act as stopper and start every game he’s available as Everton lack depth in his position.   He’s worth the price tag on a smaller budget or attack-heavy squad.  Forever a club legend for his wonder goal.

Stones – 5.5 
Could leave for Chelsea.  Stones is an assured starter and confident on the ball for a CB, I pray that he stays for the club every night.  For FPL purposes Jagielka has a stronger case for bonus points.  Stones is 6’3” and looks good on set pieces, but is still bulking up and did not score in the 2014/15 campaign.  Stick to Jags.

Garbutt - 4.5
Likely to play leftback should Baines get injured or get slotted into the midfield.  Solid player, but an extreme rotation risk.  Worth remembering for the price should Baines find himself out of commission mid-season.

Galloway – 4.5
Plays both LB and CB, but is only 19 years old and behind Garbutt on the pecking order.  I believe Martinez will try to bring an additional CB in this window (I'd actually riot if he didn’t) and find Galloway utterly forgettable this season from an FPL standpoint.

Hibbert/Browning – 4.0
Although Hibbert is a leader and chief "rioter" among men, neither of these will find any role in my fantasy squad beyond permanent bench fodder.

MIDFIELDERS

Mirallas – 7.0
Selfish, direct attacking midfielder with a potent attacking threat at 9 goals/8 assists in 28 appearances.  Selfish is good from an FPL perspective.  Mirallas is linked with a move to West Ham and may well leave with only one year left on his current contract.  If starting regularly by mid-season, he’ll be good value for his price.  Mirallas is undeniable quality but has been rotated by Martinez in the past due to attitude issues (such as stealing a PK against orders and missing).  On my mid-season watch list.

Deulofeu – 6.5La Masia product Deulofeu will cover the right wing.  With a recent hamstring tear and recurring injuries in the same muscle, he is expected out until September.  While I wouldn't recommend choosing him before then anyway, he may struggle for fitness with cameos or time in the reserves first.  As warning, Martinez loves to rotate the midfield regardless although Deulofeu may edge his way into the first-team setup.  He’s likely favored over McGeady but more likely to act as a super sub or rotation with other midfielders.  He may well prove a solid differential later but needs time to evaluate properly.

Barkley – 6.5
Touted as one of England’s best up-and-coming talents before struggling for form last season.  Barkley has a cannon for a leg and the pace/dribbling to make brilliant surging runs, but his decisionmaking is poor and he struggles without space.  Barkley is well worth a look as a prime differential IF he manages to claim a position in the center.  When positioned on the left (with Pienaar injured earlier) Barkley’s impact on games was often nonexistent.

Pienaar – 5.0
Cheap, good on the ball, creates chances and has a telepathic connection with Leighton Baines.  Too bad he’s 33 years old now and hampered by a string of injuries.  Pienaar won’t start consistently this season and is best saved as a situational 1-2 week punt later, if at all.

McCarthy/Barry – 5.0 and 4.5
Lumped together as they often partner as CDMs for Everton.  Barry is a yellow card magnet and slow.  McCarthy is absolute quality and an established starter.  Both carry virtually zero threat in the attack as they cover marauding wingbacks.

McGeady – 5.0 
Started four times.  Brilliant dribbler with five star skills on FIFA but not a team player.  Not predicted to start much more often than before.
 
Osman/Gibson – 5.0, 4.5

Osman will occasionally rotate among the attacking midfielders.  He's 34 years old and not worth an FPL shout.  Gibson is included here since he started zero times for Everton last season and is clearly also not worth a shout.

Besic – 4.5
Besic’s is basically a CDM; but may actually get decent time at CB should others get injured.  However, he’ll never score at CDM and if he plays CB he won’t get the full points from clean sheets.  Ignore

FORWARDS 

Lukaku – 8.0 
Everton’s prime frontman.  15 goals and 7 assists last year, after not playing at the start of the season and rebuilding fitness.  The goals are slightly padded due to penalties, but those are only a bonus.  I tip Lukaku to better these numbers without injury or Europa League games to distract him.  He has a chance of scoring against any team in the league despite going missing sometimes.  Is form-dependent, and firmly on my radar from GW11 on.  He may be worth including in GW1 lineups as a 1 week punt before rotating him out to free up Aguero funds. 

Naismith – 5.5 
Naismith was the first major bandwagon last season with consistent early goals.  He plays centrally off Lukaku.   Much of his early form last year was due to Everton not having other options with injuries; this year he is a riskier pick and unlikely to take off in the first 10 gameweeks.

Kone – 5.0
As an Everton fan, Kone’s inadequacy is unquestionable.  He may have had one decent season in La Liga, but don't let that deceive you post-injury.  Lukaku or nothing here.

SUMMARY

Avoid Everton's players  at all costs until GW11, where Everton's defenders boast both attacking threats and bonus points at CB.  Baines has a long string of fixtures to take off if fit, with Coleman and Jagielka making the team accessible at a range of price points.  Everton's midfield is rotation prone and needs watch, with Mirallas, Barkley, and Deulofeu potential differentials.  The team's strongest assets are in defence and with Lukaku up front.

Written by
@KDKnight7

 

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Canary Watch: Norwich City FC (Guest Post)

Having done my piece on Bournemouth, I have been asked to write something similar on Norwich and Watford.  The Norwich side that won promotion via the play-offs are very different to the dismal team that Chris Hughton led for most of previous stint in the Premier League. Their Championship record under new manager Alex Neil is admirable. In his 25 league games in charge to date, Norwich won 17 and lost 3, scoring 50 goals and conceding 21 in the process. With an average of 2 goals scored and less than one against per game, clearly the Canaries are worth a look at the very least!

Don't try knocking this fella off his perch!

First 8 Games

August

Crystal Palace (H)

Sunderland (A)

Stoke (H)

Southampton (A)

September

Bournemouth (H)

Liverpool (A)

West Ham (A)

October

Leicester (H)

After a quick look at Norwich's opening fixtures, there's obvious FPL points potential at both ends of the field. Except for the Southampton and Liverpool games, their attackers will have decent opportunities to score and all the home games listed provide CS opportunities.

Goalkeepers

John Ruddy (4.5)
Still very much Norwich's number one man between the sticks. 6ft 4in, a good shot stopper and capped for England, Ruddy has ability. The only question, therefore, is whether he has the necessary defensive line in front of him to help him get CS points. Right now, as I write this in July, I don't think he does. However, there is still plenty of time for new signings to make Ruddy more attractive.

Declan Rudd (4.0)
Unless Ruddy gets injured, there's no point putting Rudd in your squad.

Verdict: As of now, there are better GKs available at 4.5 than Ruddy (Krul, Speroni, Guzan, Boruc). That said, I think he could be a fantastic option if Norwich bolster their defence.

Defenders

Sébastien Bassong (4.5)
Solid CB who is unlikely to get dropped. I always try to sign defenders with attacking potential and Bassong doesn't offer this enough. I think Norwich have better options than him from the back.

Steven Whittaker (4.5)
This Scotsman likes to get forward and does pick up assists and the odd goal. He got 2 goals and 4 assists last season in the Championship. He's no Terry or Ivanovic but he is available at a good price. While he played almost every game last season (40 games inc. Plays offs), reports seem to be suggesting that his position in the starting XI is not guaranteed with Norwich in the hunt for a new RB.

Russell Martin (4.5)
Another Scotland international, Martin is Norwich's captain. His attacking returns were limited to 2 goals last term. Again, there are better options to choose from.

Martin Olsson (4.5)
Olssons is a marauding full back who loves to get forward. He was a starter all last seasomnn. Unfortunately, he has had shoulder surgery so it's impossible to be certain that he will be ready for GW1. Reports in the media say he will be fine. Wait and see if he plays in later pre-season games before making a decision.

Turner/R Bennett (4.0)
Not worth a place because they won't get enough playing time. Give them a skip.

Verdict:
For me, the choice boils down to Whitty and Olsson, the two full backs.  In my opinion, Olsson is the safer option as long as he's fit for GW1.

Midfielders

Graham Dorrans (5.0)

The former West Brom man is well known to FPL players. He managed to notch up 3 goals in 14 games since arriving at Carrow Road in January and also appears to be Norwich's main set piece taker when he is on the field. Having said that, he's too pricey for me to consider.

Youssuf Mulumbu (4.5)

A defensive midfielder who'll be a rock in midfield. He is a great signing for Norwich but he'll be no good for points in FPL, just look at the fact that he scored only 15 goals in 191 appearances for the Baggies before he moved! Avoid him.

Bradley Johnson (5.5)

Norwich's player of the season last year. New signings elsewhere may mean he will most likely be utilised further up the field next year. If he manages to play to his standards last season, he would be a must have. He hit the back of the net 15 times from midfield and got 2 assists. The drawback to Johnson is that he got 13 yellow cards and a red last season. I live in fear when I have players like that in my squad. Risk vs Reward!

Nathan Redmond (5.5)

The most enticing player on the Norwich team sheet. The starlet got 5 goals and 12 assists last season and will only improve as he acquires experience. If you need any more convincing, he was selected in the team of the tournament at the Euro U21s too. Yes he's pricey, but he's worth it!

Wes Hoolahan (5.0)
The Irish media constantly cry out for our man "Wessi" to be started. Why? Because he's creative and finds a way to make chances in tight games. He also takes Norwich's penalties. I would fear Wes won't play every game as his 33 years catch up with him but if he's playing and in form, he would be a brilliant differential.

Jonny Howson (5.0)
If he's playing well and starting, he would be worth consideration. Unfortunately, we can't be guaranteed either of the above. Hold off and jump on if things are going well.

Anthony Andreu (4.5)
The Frenchman arrived to Carrow Road in the New Year but has so far been limited to cameo appearances (6). However if he gets a run in the team, the attack minded CM could grab FPL points. In his final 23 league games in the Scottish Premiership for Hamilton, he scored 12 goals and assisted another 6. Hold off for now but keep him on your watch list!

Alex Tettey (4.5)
Sits in front of the defence as protection. Picks up cards like there's no tomorrow and rarely scores. Not an FPL option.

O'Neil/E Bennett (4.5)
Will hardly play. Will be subs at best. Don't bother.

Verdict:
For me, Redmond is the man to choose. He is disciplined, developing and racks up points. He'll certainly be in my GW1 team. Johnson and Hoolahan are both options but I don't see a reason why you'd pick them ahead of Redmond.

Forwards

Cameron Jerome (5.0)
City's main attackimg outlet. He got a very respectable 20 goals and 7 assists in 41 games last season in the championship. He has failed to make the cut in the Premier League in the past but could be an absolute steal at that price. It's worth noting that his pre-season form has so far been good against low quality opposition.

Ricky Van Wolfswinkel (5.0)
I know! I thought the same thing too! Why is he still at Norwich after that dismal relegation season where he got only one goal? I have no answer to that. He probably won't make it to GW1 at Carrow Road. If he is somehow still there, don't go near him with a 12 foot barge pole!

Lewis Grabban (4.5)
This man is an enigma. I'm not sure what to think. He got 12 goals in 23 starts throughout the season BUT when he came back from a few months out with injury, he got sent off for punching a Rotherham player. 4.5 could be great value depending. Will I be Grabban him? Not until he proves he can deal with the pace of the Premier League.

Gary Hooper (4.5)
12 goals in 16 starts last season sounds fantastic, doesn't it? Why then is it only 16 starts? Hooper's playing time is unexplainable and downright confusing. Transfer rumours say he may be heading off to reunite with Neil Lennon at Bolton. Too much mystery surrounds Hooper for him to make my GW1 squad.

Kyle Lafferty (4.5)
Heroic for Northern Ireland in Euro Qualification, yet tossed aside at Norwich. He probably won't start so don't consider him.

Verdict: Jerome is your best choice if he manages to adapt to the top-flight  this time around. Then again, all of Norwich's forwards are too risky for me for GW1 anyhow.

Overall Summary:
Ruddy could be a great choice if the defence is boosted. Choose at your own discretion between Whittaker and Olsson.  But consider pickng Redmond in midfield without a second thought. Dodge the forwards - there's no peace of mind in selecting any of them (yet?).

Thanks for reading!

@FPLStag

4 Rotation Sequences You Must Know About in #FPL

Let's get straight to it - when we pick our goalkeepers and defenders in FPL we want to ensure that our first-team cover at the back is playing at home as much as possible. Why? The fact of the matter is that teams keep more clean sheets at home than they do on the road.  This is why it's essential that we identify "home run" rotations of two teams with a good run of games, ideally against easier opposition.

I have had a look and was able to identify 4 combinations that "work" for the first 8 Gameweeks only.  By that I mean they fit my parameters and logic (as stated above).  You could in theory pick 3 of the pairings and barring any injuries or suspensions, your defensive cover can go untouched until the end of September.  There's no guarantee that they will keep clean sheets, but I guess you can rotate with the reassurance that you can bench them when they play away.

Here we go...

COMBO 1 - Chelsea and West Ham

1 - SWA (H) - che

2 - LEI (H) - whu

3 - BOU (H) - whu

4 - CRY (H) - che

5 - NEW (H) - whu

6 - ARS (H) - che

7 - NOR (H) - whu

8 - WAT (H) - che

Apart from the Arsenal match (6), I think the CHE/WHU could work, albeit with noted risk.  I wouldn't rotate Ivanovic (fixture proof) & Cresswell, yet it could be an option with Cahill & Jenkinson.  Of course Bilic's approach to defence will be different to Allardyce's and this must be factored in.  I think the biggest worry is the fact that you would have to bench a Chelsea defender 4 times in this period.  However, if you're willing to do that and think they won't keep clean sheets on the road against Man City (2), West Brom (3), Everton (5) and Newcastle (7) it could in fact be a risk worth taking.

Chief's Rotation Rating: 6/10

COMBO 2 - Bournemouth and Watford

1 - VIL (H) - bou

2 - WBA (H) - wat

3 - SOU (H) - wat

4 - LEI (H) - bou

5 - SWA (H) - wat

6 - SUN (H) - bou

7 - CRY (H) - wat

8 - WAT (H) - bou

There's always a worry that promoted teams keep less clean sheets in the Premier League due to an obvious difference in class. However, they're far more likely to keep clean sheets at home than on the road, which is why BOR/WAT ("Borat!") could be quite fruitful.  The other benefit is that their defensive options are relatively cheap. The stated "home run" sequence doesn't seem too bad and they won't face any Top 4 teams in that period.  You could even have a goalkeeper and defender from both teams if you fancy doubling up.  Is nice?

Chief's Rotation Rating: 7/10

COMBO 3 - Liverpool and Norwich

1 - CRY (H) - nor

2 - BOU (H) - liv

3 - STO (H) - nor

4 - WHU (H) - liv

5 - BOU (H) - nor

6 - NOR (H) - liv 

7 - VIL (H) - liv

8 - LEI (H) - nor

In recent Premier League seasons Liverpool haven't been known as a bastion of defensive fortitude.  In addition, Norwich's contemporary forays in the top-flight didn't yield that many clean sheets either.  But put your biases to one side and look at LIV/NOR's amazing run of games!  It actually seems almost too good to be true.  The beauty of it lies in both teams' defenders - Clyne, Skrtel, Martin, Whittaker, etc.  They all have attacking prowess which makes them even more tempting.

Chief's Rotation Rating: 7.5/10

COMBO 4 - Bournemouth and West Ham

1. VIL (H) - bou

2. LEI (H) - whu

3. BOU (H) - whu

4. LEI (H) - bou

5. NEW (H) - whu

6. SUN (H) - bou

7. NOR (H) - whu

8. WAT (H) - bou

In many respects having a defensive pairing which includes a mid-table team and a newly promoted team is the ideal combo for many FPL managers.  What's remarkable is that BOU/WHU will only encounter teams that finished 14th or lower last season in the above rotated sequence.  To top things off, Cresswell and Cook offer attacking attributes from the back and you could even double up with a goalie and defender from each team.  I can't think of a better rotation "home sequence" combination for the first 8 Gameweeks, can you?

Chief's Rotation Rating: 9/10

So there you have it.  Just remember, FPL is about probabilities, cheeky skill, wishful thinking and a bit of luck.  You have to speculate (do your bloomin' homework!) in-order to accumulate (getting a good weekly score on a regular basis).  Make decisions at your own behest.  You won't get it right all the time, but fear not.  There are statistics and algorithms at hand that will make your FPL adventure and decision making a bit easier...

FPL Invite Codes 2015/2016

 Click Here to see FPL Invite Codes for 2016/2017

That time of the season has arrived once again when we put club loyalties aside, forget about all other sports and tinker away in the pursuit of creating the ideal fantasy football team.  It becomes all the more fun when we actively participate in our respective mini-leagues.  Here is a selection that you can join for the 2015/2016 season:

@FPLHints' League

Code: 274-641

Auto-Join

@FantasyFootyFix's League

Code: 10498-14385

Auto-Join

@FantasyYirma's League

Code: 5284-2238

Auto-Join

@FPLWalt's League (Moshpit)

Code: 6412-5544

Auto-Join

@FPL_Fly's League

Code: 88-333

Auto-Join

@FFScout's League

Code: 600-520

Auto-Join

@FantasyFooty247's League

Code: 2038-877

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@FantasyEagles' League

Code: 247-362

Auto-Join

@FanFootFirst's League

Code: 1067-548

Auto-Join

Cherry Bite Analysis of AFC Bournemouth (Guest Post)

Since Bournemouth have just been promoted to the Premier League for the first time, they will be an unknown quantity to many of us FPL managers. That said, they are more than worth taking notice of! Eddie Howe's side were dominant in attack outscoring every other team in their division with 98 goals and they only conceded 45 goals in 46 games (2nd best defensive record). Obviously, with goal scoring and clean sheet potential, BOU players could prove to be decisive differentials.

Worth a bite?

________________________________________________________________________________

Opening Fixtures:

August:

Aston Villa (H)

Liverpool (A)

West Ham (A)

Leicester (H)

Norwich (A)

September:

Sunderland (H)

Stoke (A)

Watford (H)

On paper, The Cherries' fixtures seem promising. None of the teams they face in their opening 8 games have formidable defences and their home games especially provide decent attacking potential.

________________________________________________________________________________

Goalkeepers

Artur Boruc (4.5)

Boruc arrived at Goldsands Stadium on an emergency loan from Southampton in September 2014 on an emergency loan having lost his first team spot to Fraser Forster. He played so well that the loan was extended to the end of the season. He played 39 Championship matches keeping a convincing 16 clean sheets. It appears to me that the new BPS system will favour keepers from promoted clubs whose goals will be peppered by more shots than usual, so Boruc looks appealing in this respects. At 35 years young, Boruc's experience will be important.

Adam Federici (4.5)

Just joined Bournemouth on a free from Reading. His record was not as good as Boruc's last season (13 CS in 43P. Every media source predicts Boruc will be first choice so Federici is only worth considering if Boruc goes AWOL.

Verdict: Boruc.

Defenders

Tyrone Mings (4.5)

Bournemouth beat off strong competition to sign the 6ft 5in for a club record fee of £8M. You can be guaranteed he will begin the season starting at LB given his price tag. He got a solid 7 assists in the Championship last season for Ipswich.

Simon Francis (4.5)

Was in the Championship team of the season. He got a solid 8 assists and a goal. Unfortunately, he has a bit of a habit of getting carded so he is a doubled edged sword (8Y 1R in 42P). Nailed on to start.

Sylvain Distin (4.5)

Since arriving at the club, Howe has been talking up Distin's athleticism and experience. However, at 37 years of age, it's very difficult to be 100% whether Distin will start. 

Steve Cook (4.5)

Started almost every game last season, Had a fantastic attacking return for a CB (5G 1Ass). Picked up 10 yellow cards too though. 

Tommy Elphick (4.5)

Like Cook, Elphick started nearly every match last season. In FPL terms, he is far less appealing as he lacks attacking prowess (1G 2Ass).

Daniels/Smith:

Both these lads appear to be consigned to the bench. Select them at your peril. At 4M, Smith could be a useful cheap buy to fill space at the lowest price possible.

Verdict: Mings appears to be the best of the bunch. His discipline doesn't hold him back like Francis' does, He's also nailed on to start. The big conundrum is which two CBs will start. Cook and Elphick have an established partnership but Distin oozes experience. If I was to pick anyone from this DEF it would be Mings, but Boruc will probably accrue more BPs from saves.

Midfielders

Matt Ritchie (6.0)

One of the stand out performers in the Championship last season. Finished the season with 15 goals and 17 assists from Midfield. He is clearly a fantastic player but 6.0M is a hefty price nonetheless. Worth a gamble?

Christian Atsu (5.5)

This man is immensely talented. He was voted African Cup of Nations player of the tournament last season. He has had limited PL play time at both Chelsea and Everton. His price is too high for me anyhow, I wouldn't even be sure he is a guaranteed starter.

Harry Arter (5.0)

Started near enough every league match last season for the Cherries. He managed to get an impressive 9 Goals and 4 Assists. I've seen him playing for Ireland against decent teams and I didn't see too much FPL potential sadly. 13 yellow cards last season is another worry. Personally, I'll leave Arter find his feet in the PL before I consider investing.

Joshua King (5.0)

King is an OOP striker. That's about as much as he has going for him in FPL terms. He wasn't a regular starter for Blackburn last season in the Championship and presumably won't be for BOU either. I'd hold off for guaranteed playing time before letting King have a throne in my midfield (sorry not sorry).

Marc Pugh (5.0)

Pugh is a solid, disciplined player. He started almost every match last season getting 9 goals and 6 assists in the process. Unless Howe signs a replacement, Pugh appears to have a starting position nailed down.

Andrew Surman (4.5)

Surman is a viable option purely because he started last season. For 4.5M, that's a tempting prospect. However, his attacking returns from last season reflect his price. He only managed to get 3 goals and 4 Assists.

Dan Gosling (4.5)

Gosling's career has yet to reach the heights many hoped they would. You'd be better off reflecting on THAT 118th minute FA Cup goal for Everton against Liverpool that ITV botched in live coverage than putting him in your FPL squad! In all seriousness though, he doesn't merit a place.

O'Kane/McDonald/Stanislas:

None of these lads got enough game time last season to give them much consideration for the start of this season. Not even worth picking as gap fillers for the beginning of the season.

Verdict: If Ritchie plays as well as he did last season, he could be a tremendous FPL pick. I wouldn't jump on him for GW1 though. I think Pugh is the other player worth a place in a GW1 squad. He has the attacking ability,discipline and cheap price. Atsu could be incredible but I don't have the cojones to back him without more proof first.

Forwards

Callum Wilson (5.5)

Had a fantastic season last term. He notched up 20 goals and 13 assists at only 22/23 years of age. Can only improve as he matures and grows into the league. Right now he looks a bit like Danny Ings did to me at the beginning of last season. Would be a differential choice and a nailed on starter unless Howe swoops for a replacement.

Yann Kermorgant (5.0)

The veteran French man isn't getting any younger at 33. That said, he had an impressive haul last season with 15 goals and 11 assists. With no PL experience, Kermo would be a major gamble for a GW 1 slot. If Howe plays a more defensive formation with more MIDs or DEFs, I believe he would be sacrificed. 

Tokelo Rantie (4.5)

As a general rule, I'm allergic to bargain basement strikers, In 41 league games last season, Rantie got 5 goals and 5 assists. I'd be very surprised if he starts next term and even more surprised if he was effective. I'll pass thanks.

Verdict: Wilson looks tasty. He's young, clinical and fairly cheap. The others are too risky for my liking.

Overall Summary

Boruc seems like the best way to rack up DEF points in the Bournemouth back 5. At a push, Mings could be a good candidate for a defensive position. The CB slots are just too uncertain to make a call. In midfield, Ritchie is the stand out performer. His price tag does cause me hesitation though. A cheaper alternative into the midfield would be Pugh. Wilson looks like a strong choice for the 3rd striker spot on any team, he has the potential, he just needs to reach it. Some strikers totally fail in the step up while others flourish (contrast Dave Nugent and Charlie Austin!).

Thanks for reading!

@FPLStag

#FPL 2015/2016 - An unhealthy portion of "chips"?

FPL 2015/16 is finally live!  But guess what? It's changed FOREVER...

These are chips, not fries!

In the past did you sigh in silence whenever you felt your captain deserved more points? Did you mutter expletives whenever you lost points on the bench? Did you ever desire to play a genuine "Power 8" with 5 midfielders and 3 forwards?  Did you wish that the second wildcard (Winter Wildcard) wasn't just available for 5-6 weeks? Well, all of those things are now possible!

FPL have modified the way you can go about accruing points by introducing a set of boosts, known as chips (see here).  Even the two wildcards are classified as chips.  In fact, the chips are as follows:

• All out attack - This allows you to use a 2-5-3 formation.
• Triple captain - Your captain's points will be multiplied by 3 instead of 2.
• Bench boost - All of your substitutes points will add up to your weekly tally.
• Wildcards - Ability to change all of your players without taking "hits" (losing points).

But hold on a sec.  You can only use one chip per Gameweek and the newest 3 chips can only be used once a season!  In the two selected Gameweeks that you use your wildcards you can't also use the other chips.  The "all out attack" chip doesn't allow for autosubs if any of your midfielders or forwards fail to play.  But at least with the "triple captain" chip you have the peace of mind that if he doesn't play it isn't wasted as your vice-captain is still eligible for that honour.  Unrelated to the chips, I also noticed that the goalkeepers' prices have fallen (all sub £6.0M) which can now allow for easier accommodation of rotating a quality goalie with a cheaper one.  Having said that, some defenders' prices have fallen (or not risen) whereas genuine "Pound Shop Defenders" (i.e. priced at £4.0M) have become practically extinct as if they are gradually being pushed up in line with a mythical FPL Living Wage, which isn't rewarding us owners, but is instead short changing our pockets! 

Many FPL managers may shout out with joy and excitement at the new changes.  Perhaps they are long overdue.  But I am not so sure about them.  I liked the fact there was a winter wildcard, as I never used my wildcard early in the past and liked the fact that not many managers had the patience to hold on to their all-season wildcard for the April/May Double Gameweeks.  Dare I say it, I'm feeling a bit pessimistic, even with the new chips at hand.  I think it could be overkill for some and if FPL wasn't already about luck to an extent, you will have to be even luckier to win FPL in the future.  Sure, template teams will now be challenged with the new chips introduced that will skew weekly scores on occasion.  I personally think these changes have come in too soon and will complicate some things for a game that is cherished by millions for its simplicity.  I genuinely hope this isn't a "Jump the Shark" moment for FPL.  People won't switch off immediately even if they will scratch their heads a fair few times during the season.  However, if the chips prove to be detrimental in their desired effect, FPL managers may abandon ship and choose alternative Fantasy Football platforms, i.e. daily games, pick anyone games or non-cap weekly games.

Then again, what do I know.  I guess I'm just into my retro fashion of keeping things as they are; in fact I'm still enthused and remember fondly the old CM/FM games!  I like the classics and have seen too often in football games (of all varieties) that people lose interest if revamped changes don't marry up properly with the genuine desire for popular feature requests.  I guess we will have to wait and see how FPL fares with the new variables. It's loved by millions across the world and has grown steadily in 9 years.  There's no wonder why - "one passion and many languages" to paraphrase a quote from former FPLH writer Matej.  The litmus test could be the first few Gameweeks before the international break.  Yes, I desired a proper "Power 8" last season and have often lost big points on the bench.  If only the 3 new chips could be used during a live Gameweek or retrospectively.  There's only one way to find out if the confirmed changes will be hot or not, by playing FPL of course.  That's my semi-rant over.  Time for some fish and chips...