Should you have a sugar tooth for Toffees? (Guest Post)

Everton have historically provided FPL managers standout options at good value.  Baines and Coleman have long dominated defensive point tables with both goals and assists, while Lukaku, Mirallas, and Barkley to a lesser extent offer potent fantasy threats.  Manager Roberto Martinez plays a possession-based game in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, with defenders expected to play the ball out of the back behind a double pivot as wingbacks overload the opposition half and allow wingers to cut inside.  Despite this, Everton failed to meet FPL expectations last season.
 

Don't get stuck with too many Toffees in your mouth!

The team finished 11^th after posting 5^th and 6^th place finishes the two years prior, and failed to deliver consistent fantasy returns from ANY of their attacking players.  I firmly believe the men in blue are still worth consideration.  However, Everton’s FPL returns are situational.

Their results can be explained: the Toffees reached the Europa League quarterfinals and racked up injuries along the way.  Everton missed at least one of their first choice back four in over 70% of their fixtures.  Lukaku struggled for fitness early, while Baines’ chances of entering the pantheon of eternal FPL glory were shattered by February thigh/knee injuries.  Baines also received ankle surgery in May, and may be questionable despite returning for pre-season.

Everton no longer play in the Europa League and their underlying threats are still worth looking at.  Unfortunately, their early matches aren’t.

First 10 games: 

Watford (H)
Southampton (A)
Man City (H)
Spurs (A)
Chelsea (H)
Swansea (A)
West Brom (A)
Liverpool (H)
Man United (H)
Arsenal (A)

Beyond a cushy home game against Watford to begin the season, Everton face a terrifying series of fixtures.  Their strong defensive assets will struggle to build confidence, let alone their offence that Martinez will continue to tinker with through the start of the season.

Verdict: My brain says no, but my heart says absolutely not, **** no.  AVOID.

Games 11-20:

Sunderland (A)
West Ham (H)
Aston Villa (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Norwich (A)
Leicester (H)
Newcastle (A)
Stoke (H)
Spurs (H)

The Toffees face a much kinder run of games afterwards, with brilliant home games and zero matches against the top four.    The team is also noted for rallying in the second half of the season (an almost inevitable constant across recent seasons under previous manager Moyes and successor Martinez)—in their last stint, Everton’s strongest spell was a six game streak through March and April with 5 wins and 1 draw, including a 3-0 win over Manchester United and four clean sheets.  The year before, with now-permanent Lukaku, Barry, and Deulofeu on loan, they again posted an 8/10 win record through March and April with strong home wins against Arsenal and United.

Verdict:  You should BUY as form permits; games against Sunderland and West Ham will provide a more reliable measure of how the team fares against a constant string of relatively weaker opposition.  This period offers strong promises of clean sheets and attacking returns alike due to Everton's ability to retain possession and bully weaker teams.  Even the likes of West Ham and Tottenham tend to rely on outscoring opposition and will play the Blues on Everton turf.

Everton demands notice from FPL managers in the mid to late season.  Those playing GW8 or 11 wildcards should pay extra attention.

Before jumping into player reviews, I have to mention that the Toffees lacked any major creative spark aside from Baines, who accounted for 20% of all chances.  Hopefully they will pick up a creative midfielder to take the burden off and jump-start Barkley/Lukaku.  Incidentally, Lukaku provided 11% of chances, Coleman 10%, and Barkley 9%.   This could be an issue when evaluating Everton attackers later.

GOALKEEPERS

Howard – 5.0
American hero and guaranteed starting goalkeeper with plenty of saves in him.  Howard topped the FPL goalkeeper charts two years ago, but last season garnered a mediocre 10 clean sheets, tying with Hull/Villa/Burnley/Leicester and barely beating West Ham and Spurs.   I expect the opening 10 games to crush his dreams.  Only worth consideration in the next 10 dependent on his back line’s form.

Robles – 4.0
Backup.  Ignore without fear.

DEFENDERS

Baines – 6.5
Fantasy gold.  Gave fantasy owners 4.5ppg last season even without clean sheets to back him up, behind only Chelsea’s Ivanovic, Terry, and Azpilicueta.  Baines has been consistently at the top of defender point returns for years.  He’ll dominate corners and free kicks; however, Martinez has recently given his penalty duties to Lukaku.  May prove too expensive, but is fixture proof if fit through weeks 11-20.  Furthermore, Martinez has rotated him at CM/CDM similar to Lahm.

Coleman – 6.0
Possibly the most threatening right back in the league.  3 goals and 2 assists last year, and 6/2 the year before.  Undroppable if fit and an extremely solid core defender for mid-season if Baines is injured or 6.5 isn’t available.
 
Jagielka – 5.5

Bonus point magnet, especially with the new changes rewarding CBs.  This England international will act as stopper and start every game he’s available as Everton lack depth in his position.   He’s worth the price tag on a smaller budget or attack-heavy squad.  Forever a club legend for his wonder goal.

Stones – 5.5 
Could leave for Chelsea.  Stones is an assured starter and confident on the ball for a CB, I pray that he stays for the club every night.  For FPL purposes Jagielka has a stronger case for bonus points.  Stones is 6’3” and looks good on set pieces, but is still bulking up and did not score in the 2014/15 campaign.  Stick to Jags.

Garbutt - 4.5
Likely to play leftback should Baines get injured or get slotted into the midfield.  Solid player, but an extreme rotation risk.  Worth remembering for the price should Baines find himself out of commission mid-season.

Galloway – 4.5
Plays both LB and CB, but is only 19 years old and behind Garbutt on the pecking order.  I believe Martinez will try to bring an additional CB in this window (I'd actually riot if he didn’t) and find Galloway utterly forgettable this season from an FPL standpoint.

Hibbert/Browning – 4.0
Although Hibbert is a leader and chief "rioter" among men, neither of these will find any role in my fantasy squad beyond permanent bench fodder.

MIDFIELDERS

Mirallas – 7.0
Selfish, direct attacking midfielder with a potent attacking threat at 9 goals/8 assists in 28 appearances.  Selfish is good from an FPL perspective.  Mirallas is linked with a move to West Ham and may well leave with only one year left on his current contract.  If starting regularly by mid-season, he’ll be good value for his price.  Mirallas is undeniable quality but has been rotated by Martinez in the past due to attitude issues (such as stealing a PK against orders and missing).  On my mid-season watch list.

Deulofeu – 6.5La Masia product Deulofeu will cover the right wing.  With a recent hamstring tear and recurring injuries in the same muscle, he is expected out until September.  While I wouldn't recommend choosing him before then anyway, he may struggle for fitness with cameos or time in the reserves first.  As warning, Martinez loves to rotate the midfield regardless although Deulofeu may edge his way into the first-team setup.  He’s likely favored over McGeady but more likely to act as a super sub or rotation with other midfielders.  He may well prove a solid differential later but needs time to evaluate properly.

Barkley – 6.5
Touted as one of England’s best up-and-coming talents before struggling for form last season.  Barkley has a cannon for a leg and the pace/dribbling to make brilliant surging runs, but his decisionmaking is poor and he struggles without space.  Barkley is well worth a look as a prime differential IF he manages to claim a position in the center.  When positioned on the left (with Pienaar injured earlier) Barkley’s impact on games was often nonexistent.

Pienaar – 5.0
Cheap, good on the ball, creates chances and has a telepathic connection with Leighton Baines.  Too bad he’s 33 years old now and hampered by a string of injuries.  Pienaar won’t start consistently this season and is best saved as a situational 1-2 week punt later, if at all.

McCarthy/Barry – 5.0 and 4.5
Lumped together as they often partner as CDMs for Everton.  Barry is a yellow card magnet and slow.  McCarthy is absolute quality and an established starter.  Both carry virtually zero threat in the attack as they cover marauding wingbacks.

McGeady – 5.0 
Started four times.  Brilliant dribbler with five star skills on FIFA but not a team player.  Not predicted to start much more often than before.
 
Osman/Gibson – 5.0, 4.5

Osman will occasionally rotate among the attacking midfielders.  He's 34 years old and not worth an FPL shout.  Gibson is included here since he started zero times for Everton last season and is clearly also not worth a shout.

Besic – 4.5
Besic’s is basically a CDM; but may actually get decent time at CB should others get injured.  However, he’ll never score at CDM and if he plays CB he won’t get the full points from clean sheets.  Ignore

FORWARDS 

Lukaku – 8.0 
Everton’s prime frontman.  15 goals and 7 assists last year, after not playing at the start of the season and rebuilding fitness.  The goals are slightly padded due to penalties, but those are only a bonus.  I tip Lukaku to better these numbers without injury or Europa League games to distract him.  He has a chance of scoring against any team in the league despite going missing sometimes.  Is form-dependent, and firmly on my radar from GW11 on.  He may be worth including in GW1 lineups as a 1 week punt before rotating him out to free up Aguero funds. 

Naismith – 5.5 
Naismith was the first major bandwagon last season with consistent early goals.  He plays centrally off Lukaku.   Much of his early form last year was due to Everton not having other options with injuries; this year he is a riskier pick and unlikely to take off in the first 10 gameweeks.

Kone – 5.0
As an Everton fan, Kone’s inadequacy is unquestionable.  He may have had one decent season in La Liga, but don't let that deceive you post-injury.  Lukaku or nothing here.

SUMMARY

Avoid Everton's players  at all costs until GW11, where Everton's defenders boast both attacking threats and bonus points at CB.  Baines has a long string of fixtures to take off if fit, with Coleman and Jagielka making the team accessible at a range of price points.  Everton's midfield is rotation prone and needs watch, with Mirallas, Barkley, and Deulofeu potential differentials.  The team's strongest assets are in defence and with Lukaku up front.

Written by
@KDKnight7

 

Bantasy Football: Eyes on Everton

This is it - the big'un. There are few secrets left in fantasy this season - don't expect to unearth another Ramsey-esque gem - but there is value to be had. Scout them and they will come. 

With today being Budget Day and all, I thought I’d avoid yammering on about the obvious choices from cash-splashing Man City – although I will point out that Silva (9.2) and Nasri (8.1) are not just phenomenal picks, but provide excellent differential at 6.2% and 3.0% ownership respectively – presumably due to the unrivalled pecks appeal of one Mr. Toure Yaya. 

A Briefcase Wanker tries to keep his GW 31 transfers on the d-low

Everton

Two wins on the trot have not totally coincidentally followed Lukaku's return. The big Belgian has ten goals this season and despite not contributing against Cardiff, Romelu was back in for the full 90. 

The Toffee's have The Swans first up - who haven't defeated a team outside the relegation spots since they won against Newcastle on 4th December - their only win against a team outside the bottom five all season. 

Gary Monk has failed to plug the gaping holes Laudrup left in defence (rumour has it the Loch Ness Monster resides somewhere in the vast chasm between Chico and Rangel) and they've managed to concede eight in their last four. 

The second game is against a shaky Newcastle side who are ravaged by injury, won't have a manager in the stadium and have nothing to play for but 'pride' (yes I'm aware I raved about them last week - no I don't want to talk about it).  

Can you Lukaku?

For 8.5 you could have this sexy beast in your line-up - 

Lukaku famously sprinkles creatine on his cornflakes

You're now thinking one of three things: 

1.  Hasn't he cut his hair now? Will the Samson effect come into play? 

2. "Holy inconceivable lats, Batman - I need to start doing pull ups!"

3. What is this, Men's Health? Why is this relevant to my fantasy team? I'm all about the Benjamins points. Shut up and show me the money. 

Well ask and ye shall receive - 

1. Yes. No. 

2. Yup. According to Chuck Norris: "Any man incapable of lifting his own body weight is essentially just a walking meal that it would be illegal to eat." 

3. You seem like the sensible ones so I'll answer yours in a bit more detail - 

Lukaku fills a crucial gap in the fantasy market - we all know about SAS, Rooney etc. but for those banking on spenny mids like Silva, Toure and Mata, there's no other mid-priced striker who competes with the potential value of Romelu. The only viable competitors are Giroud (8.6), who plays at the impenetrable Stamford Bridge as part of the double GW, effectively negating its value, and Bony (7.1), who in similar fashion plays Arsenal and our new best friends Everton - both away. 

Lukaku scored the winner against Wham despite only playing 32 minutes, is a dead cert to start both games and, crucially, is genuinely a very good footballer. He gets a decent amount of assists as the lone forward (6) and is the focal point for an attacking Everton side. 

Strangely he's the most transferred OUT player so far this week - as well as the fourth most transferred-in. If that's not free market economics at work, I don't know what is. 

(I don't know what free market economics is - but apparently this is funny)

Coleman (6.7) v.s. Baines (7.4)

Ah, the age-old debate. Everyone's already repping Coleman but expect his price to rise even higher after his late winner against Cardiff (1.4 mil people have put him in already this week!). Seamus was once the bargain of the season - a cheap attacking full back who scores and can pick up clean sheets. 

Now he costs just 0.7 less than Leighton - and while he's scored twice as many goals, it remains hard to argue (successfully at least) that he presents a more potent attacking threat. Baines takes free kicks, corners and penalties. Coleman's goals mostly come from bundling into the box and tapping it into an open net. Only once this season has he scored in a game Everton did not win. Baines is a bona fide game-changer - a real-life playmaker from the back - just look at how he single-handedly burst bubbles at Upton Park:

Now put him in your team. 

Mirallas (7.5)

Kev seems to have won Martinez's trust - he's started all but one of the last nine games. He buys and sells speed for a profit (pace merchant) and isn't shy of a shot. Similarly to Lukaku, Mirallas is the stand-out choice in his price bracket. His closest competition would probably be Nolan (7.1), also a good shout for the double GW - but Kev no.2 has a propensity to get sent off this season and has to play United and Hull - both of whom are desperate for points. 

Let's get statistical

Mirallas provides more of a creative threat, receives more passes per minute (3.1 to 4.6), has more touches in the penalty area (103 to 97) and has a far itchier trigger finger (70 goal attempts v.s. 41). He takes half as many minutes to create each chance (39.4 to 88.2) and takes corners (65 this season) while Nolan lazes about picking his nose or scratching his arse or something. 

"I knew I shouldn't have licked this"

A word on Barkley (5.1)

While it's more painful than sliding down a razor blade in the buff to cut a double GW player, Barkley's gotta go. In his last five games he has played this many minutes: 45,27,28,6,9.

That's not altogether or nothin'. That's in each game. Yuk. He's 5.1m but that's no excuse for the 1.4 million Mugbook Pros who've put him in this week. Yanoozay (Januzaj; also 5.1) or Mutch (4.4; two assists last week) would be much better budget bargains.


Pic of the week

Related? No. But funny? Well, that's kind of subjective, but I thought so -

For more Bantasy Football, go to: bantasyfootball.blogspot.co.uk or follow us @BantasyFootball

How Do You Solve A Problem Like Barkley?

This is the conundrum faced by many of us at the moment. Wonderkid Ross Barkley of Everton was considered to be a "must-have" for the first quarter of the season.

An opening day goal, combined with 3 bonus points firmly put this boy on the radar for FPL managers looking for a bargain. And what a price! £4.5 million made his purchase affordable with no need for sacrificial lambs! We could all afford to take a punt at that price. Over the coming weeks his stock rose steadily, despite poor points returns until GW's 5 and 6.

The amount of managers transferring him in saw his price rise dramatically, peaking at £5.7 million after GW 8. But after boom inevitably comes bust. A steadily decreasing amount of game time has seen his price (and his points return) fall sharply. As managers bomb him out of their squads, it appears his star - that once shone so brightly - is fading rapidly.

Despite the rush to sell him, at the time of writing Barkley is still owned by a staggering 32.3% of you. But why? He's not completing matches, his points return has been poor for a while now, and Everton have some shocking fixtures coming up. GW 13 sees them take on Stoke at Goodison, but the following weeks see them play Man Utd and Arsenal away! Surely his value is only going to plummet further if his game time and form stay the same? He'll get dumped quicker than the jumper your aunt will no doubt buy you for Christmas.
 

I know what you may be thinking, keep the faith with Barkley, he's been given International recognition and he plays that Number 10 role behind the striker that can reap dividends if he gets it right.

Actually to be honest you're probably still thinking about those upcoming fixtures for Everton and ditching Baines/ Jagielka/ Coleman or Distin right about now aren't you...

He may be worth keeping as an option on your bench, but risking him in your starting XI may cause you more harm than good. Do you sell now while you can still get a tidy sum for him? Personally, I transferred him out for GW12 and checking back now I wish I'd done it earlier as I had him permanently benched since GW 6. Still, his price continued to rise so no real harm done.

I don't see him recapturing the form that saw him rise to the top of the points table for midfielders (he is currently down in 14th and falling). Does this justify his selection as the third most owned midfielder in the game behind Aaron Ramsey and Yaya Toure? I guess - as they say - the decision is yours...

Fly

@Meet_The_Gadfly

(Please be gentle; first ever Blog post!)