Sunday, 12 July 2015

4 Rotation Sequences You Must Know About in #FPL

Let's get straight to it - when we pick our goalkeepers and defenders in FPL we want to ensure that our first-team cover at the back is playing at home as much as possible. Why? The fact of the matter is that teams keep more clean sheets at home than they do on the road.  This is why it's essential that we identify "home run" rotations of two teams with a good run of games, ideally against easier opposition.

I have had a look and was able to identify 4 combinations that "work" for the first 8 Gameweeks only.  By that I mean they fit my parameters and logic (as stated above).  You could in theory pick 3 of the pairings and barring any injuries or suspensions, your defensive cover can go untouched until the end of September.  There's no guarantee that they will keep clean sheets, but I guess you can rotate with the reassurance that you can bench them when they play away.

Here we go...

COMBO 1 - Chelsea and West Ham

1 - SWA (H) - che
2 - LEI (H) - whu
3 - BOU (H) - whu
4 - CRY (H) - che
5 - NEW (H) - whu
6 - ARS (H) - che
7 - NOR (H) - whu
8 - WAT (H) - che

Apart from the Arsenal match (6), I think the CHE/WHU could work, albeit with noted risk.  I wouldn't rotate Ivanovic (fixture proof) & Cresswell, yet it could be an option with Cahill & Jenkinson.  Of course Bilic's approach to defence will be different to Allardyce's and this must be factored in.  I think the biggest worry is the fact that you would have to bench a Chelsea defender 4 times in this period.  However, if you're willing to do that and think they won't keep clean sheets on the road against Man City (2), West Brom (3), Everton (5) and Newcastle (7) it could in fact be a risk worth taking.

Chief's Rotation Rating: 6/10

COMBO 2 - Bournemouth and Watford

1 - VIL (H) - bou
2 - WBA (H) - wat
3 - SOU (H) - wat
4 - LEI (H) - bou
5 - SWA (H) - wat
6 - SUN (H) - bou
7 - CRY (H) - wat
8 - WAT (H) - bou

There's always a worry that promoted teams keep less clean sheets in the Premier League due to an obvious difference in class. However, they're far more likely to keep clean sheets at home than on the road, which is why BOR/WAT ("Borat!") could be quite fruitful.  The other benefit is that their defensive options are relatively cheap. The stated "home run" sequence doesn't seem too bad and they won't face any Top 4 teams in that period.  You could even have a goalkeeper and defender from both teams if you fancy doubling up.  Is nice?

Chief's Rotation Rating: 7/10

COMBO 3 - Liverpool and Norwich

1 - CRY (H) - nor
2 - BOU (H) - liv
3 - STO (H) - nor
4 - WHU (H) - liv
5 - BOU (H) - nor
6 - NOR (H) - liv 
7 - VIL (H) - liv
8 - LEI (H) - nor

In recent Premier League seasons Liverpool haven't been known as a bastion of defensive fortitude.  In addition, Norwich's contemporary forays in the top-flight didn't yield that many clean sheets either.  But put your biases to one side and look at LIV/NOR's amazing run of games!  It actually seems almost too good to be true.  The beauty of it lies in both teams' defenders - Clyne, Skrtel, Martin, Whittaker, etc.  They all have attacking prowess which makes them even more tempting.

Chief's Rotation Rating: 7.5/10

COMBO 4 - Bournemouth and West Ham

1. VIL (H) - bou
2. LEI (H) - whu
3. BOU (H) - whu
4. LEI (H) - bou
5. NEW (H) - whu
6. SUN (H) - bou
7. NOR (H) - whu
8. WAT (H) - bou

In many respects having a defensive pairing which includes a mid-table team and a newly promoted team is the ideal combo for many FPL managers.  What's remarkable is that BOU/WHU will only encounter teams that finished 14th or lower last season in the above rotated sequence.  To top things off, Cresswell and Cook offer attacking attributes from the back and you could even double up with a goalie and defender from each team.  I can't think of a better rotation "home sequence" combination for the first 8 Gameweeks, can you?

Chief's Rotation Rating: 9/10

So there you have it.  Just remember, FPL is about probabilities, cheeky skill, wishful thinking and a bit of luck.  You have to speculate (do your bloomin' homework!) in-order to accumulate (getting a good weekly score on a regular basis).  Make decisions at your own behest.  You won't get it right all the time, but fear not.  There are statistics and algorithms at hand that will make your FPL adventure and decision making a bit easier...