Adios Carlos - A Fond FPL Farewell?

You've probably read the news by now. Little Carlitos "I don't want to warm-up" Tevez has agreed a move to Italian giants Juventus because "they wanted him more" than AC Milan did. He leaves behind a newly reorganized Manchester City squad that drove FPL managers bonkers last year as crazy-man Roberto Mancini played musical chairs with virtually every position on the pitch.

Personally, Mancini scared me away from so many City players during #FPL season that Tevez's move away came as a breath of fresh air to me when I heard everything was finalized. After initially admiring the work rate and tenacity Tevez showed following his move to Manchester United and the way he "stood up" to Sir Alex Ferguson when things went south and he flew the coop across town to City, it gradually dawned on me during his multiple excursions on the wrong side of sanity that it wasn't Sir Alex who had been the problem; it was Carlos.

So seeing Tevez move away initially seemed like just the kind of move that both Manchester City and us #FPL managers needed. Freed from Mancini's unpredictability, the offloading of Tevez seemingly reduces the rotation risk of City's front line by a full 33% as it leaves those minutes to be filled by Sergio Aguero and/or Edin Dzeko, unless of course a third quality striker is brought in or recalled from loan who Pellegrini decides to drive us equally mad with. But that remains to be seen.

City's forward rotation was great for City; don't get me wrong. But it was an #FPL manager's nightmare. Looking at the statistics from the 2012-2013 season, Mancini actually did a very good job of spreading the minutes around and keeping people fresh when they weren't injured. Aguero, Tevez and Dzeko averaged 51, 63 and 48 minutes per gameweek respectively, a very even distribution, while scoring 5.6, 6.3 and 6.4 points per 90 minutes each. On the face of it, Mancini did exactly what he should have done; keeping things fresh and maintaining consistent returns.

Despite the rotation, Tevez finished the year as City's up-front leader in both minutes played and points scored. From a statistical perspective, he scored 6.35 points per game to Aguero's 5.60 and based on year-end values tallied 18.37 points per million pounds in price compared to Aguero's 10.90. Financially speaking, Tevez was a bargain. At 18.84 points per million pounds in price, so was Dzeko.

So maybe, purely from a numbers standpoint, City let the wrong guy leave. Based purely on statistics, for what it's worth, the Tevez and Dzeko show, based on the 2012-2013 season, is more productive and profitable than an FPL Aguero-Dzeko combination.

When setting the City dynamic to the side and looking at Tevez strictly compared to other FPL forwards in his price bracket (9.2m at season end), he also outscored every forward in the 8.3 - 9.3m bracket quite handily. Of Torres, Adebayor, Podolski, Carroll and Cisse, only Podolski even comes close to Tevez's points and value statistics.

So we're left, as oftentimes is the case, with a double-edged sword. When looking at City coverage, Tevez's move to Juventus simplifies things and makes both Aguero and Dzeko much more attractive investments than they were last year (Dzeko statistically would be the guy to pick up due to his points/price ratio, but I have a sneaky suspicion Aguero will have a good year assuming he doesn't get assaulted in the 13th minute of the first fixture like he did last year). At the same time, Tevez's outstanding performance in the mid-premium price bracket leaves a significant void to be filled by somebody. Who that person will be is anyone's guess, as Tevez decidedly outperformed everyone else in that bracket last season.

At this point, only one thing is for sure. Carlitos can show up and caddie at the British Open practice rounds all he wants, but no one will be getting any FPL points from him this time around. He's going the way of Balotelli and Mancini, and taking all of the pointing, laughing and snickering with him.

Seeya Carlitos. Good luck.

Please follow me on Twitter: @EPLFanForLife

FPL 101 (Summer School for Rookies and Newbies)

FPL Pre-season Warmup – Avoiding “Rookie Mistakes”

Maybe you’ve recently finished your first or second FPL season or are standing at the proverbial water’s edge, staring out at the churning waters of the FPL ocean, wondering what’s out there, contemplating playing the game for the first time this coming season.  From one rookie to another, here are a few hard learned lessons and tips that could be the FPL life jacket you’re looking for.

Before We Begin – Why Are You Playing?

In my experience, those playing FPL more or less fit into one of two different categories.  First, there are those who are fans of the sport of football in general and the English Premier League specifically and who use FPL as a way to enhance their weekend viewing of the games and to get to know some of the “other” players beside the household names we see highlighted during major international tournaments.  Second, there are those who not only play the game to enhance their viewing, but also take the FPL game itself seriously and delve into the complexities of the game with an eye towards scoring the most points possible and improving their mini-league and overall ranking.

This distinction is an extremely important one as the FPL game means something different depending on which of these groups you find yourself in.  If you’re like me, you will probably find that playing the game for fun and to try to learn more about the Premier League inevitably leads to you finding yourself getting further involved, almost addicted, and focusing on points, points, points.  For the purposes of this article I will assume that you have one eye looking towards next season with a goal of playing the game seriously.  With this in mind, following are a few tips I wish were shared with me before I locked in my first gw1 FPL team.

Know the Rules and Scoring System

There are many fantasy games out there based on the sport we love.  Before playing the official FPL game I played Fantasy World Cup 2010 and 2 seasons of ESPN Fantasy Football for Premier League.  It wasn’t until the 2011-12 EPL season that I found the “official” FPL game.  I remember setting up my ESPN team for my third season when some friends invited me to join a mini-league they’d created the prior year in FPL.  I joined without doing any homework and by gw2 I realized keeping up with 2 teams wasn’t going to be possible.  With friends in FPL and recognizing that a) it was the official fantasy game of the EPL and b) there were over 2.5 MILLION players, the decision was easy and quick.  My ESPN team was abandoned and I was floating in the waters of FPL with nothing but my old presumptions based on a game I no longer played.

If you’ve played other fantasy football games in the past, and even if you haven’t, familiarize yourself with the Rules and Scoring System as best you can.  Yes, it can get a little tedious and there are more fun ways to spend your spare time, but knowing the rules and scoring distinctions can really help not only when formulating the team you’ll start the season with but with the hundreds of decisions you’ll make throughout the season.  Distinctions are important and if you don’t recognize them early you’ll be cursing them later.

 

Need a refresher or want to understand the rules and scoring before playing this season?  Follow this link for everything you need to know: http://fantasy.premierleague.com/rules/

(This link is active as of June 9, 2013)

Do Not Pick Players Based Solely on Team Affiliation

If for some strange reason you print this article, circle, highlight and underline this one.  As a fan of EPL, you almost surely have a team or teams you support with wild abandon and a team or teams that you, uh, don’t support (sometimes with equal or more fervor and energy than you reserve for your favorite team).

Picking your team and making transfers based solely on which teams you love and hate is a recipe for disaster.  Take it from someone who has experienced it personally; the ONLY thing worse than watching a good player on one of your least favorite teams score goals and rack up points is not having them on your FPL team and watching your rivals who were smart enough to pick them bury you in FPL too.  It’s enough to drive you mad.  Enough said.

Be Aware of All Fixtures and Competitions 

Closely behind the disappointment of watching your affiliation-related stubbornness cost you valuable FPL points is the fear, panic, and ultimate self-punishment that comes with making a transfer early only to find out there is a mid-week Carling Cup fixture in which your newly transferred player will feature and quite possibly either get injured or be subsequently rested for the weekend EPL fixture.

To my knowledge, the official FPL site does not publicize or warn you of these fixtures that you absolutely, positively need to be aware of when formulating your strategy for a particular gameweek.  Find the best source of information you can for fixtures in all competitions that EPL teams compete in and make sure you do not get caught unaware.

 

Don’t Rely on a Single News Source

As you get further involved in your FPL addiction you will find that there are diametrically opposed realities of wanting to know as soon as possible what a team’s expected lineup will be for their upcoming fixture and knowing that if there is any certainty whatsoever, it only comes after days (often 3 or 4) of sniffing out news stories and having multiple journos help to confirm or deny rumors and managerial leanings that are printed and theorized early in the week.

Fortunately (or unfortunately) there are many websites and “help” sites out there that post predicted lineups for the upcoming round of EPL fixtures.  Be careful though; I do not know where they get their information and they are not always accurate.  I learned the hard way not to rely on one single source of information.  If you are lucky you may find a source or two that seem to get things right more often than not.  If you find them, please send me the info.  Otherwise, do your homework and dig around.  There are all kinds of theories out there (the Liverpool bib theory comes to mind) but I have yet to find a single, reliable source of information for starting lineups that would give me a leg up on transfer decisions.

A Penny Saved is a Penny Earned

This is another tip that is high on my list of things I wish I had learned sooner.  If you’re like me, your natural inclination as an FPL manager is to utilize every penny at your disposal to “maximize” your squad; especially early on when you are creating your team for gw1 and before player values have fluctuated.

I think this year will be different for me.  One of the things that I learned this past season was the value of keeping some money in the bank.  As I look back on the 2012-2013 FPL season, I remember vividly multiple, MULTIPLE game weeks where 0.1m was the difference between making a transfer I really, really wanted and settling for one that I could afford.

In addition to the pure economics involved, the biggest difference for me was the breathing room afforded by having 0.2m or 0.3m sitting in the bank.  It was frequently the difference between feeling rushed and panicked to make a transfer too early and being able to calmly make better decisions, knowing that a 0.1m rise in price of the guy I wanted or a 0.1m dip in price of the guy I wanted to offload would not force me into making a hasty decision too early in the gameweek.  “Panic” transfers are no fun.

I hope in this list you find something valuable that you can use as you get ready for your second or third season of FPL.  And if you are standing there wondering whether this is the year that you play the game for the first time, I hope that you find something here that makes it more likely that you will click “CONFIRM TEAM” for the first time this coming August.  Over 2.5 million of us can’t be wrong.

I hope you’re enjoying your “off season”.

Walt (@EPLFanForLife)

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FPL... The American Way! (Walt's Story)

So I’m a second year FPL enthusiast from the USA who is still learning the game.  Last year was an interesting intro to the FPL game, but coming from a few years of the ESPN version of the game (the first season I played I was given 30 transfers TOTAL to use whenever I wanted – no option to “buy” additional transfers when I ran out) I really had no idea what I was doing.  I ended up ranked 350,000 or thereabouts and actually felt pretty accomplished – that a guy from the other side of the world in a country where David Beckham once walked around virtually unnoticed – could finish the season within the top 15%.

This year was different.  About a third of the way through the season I started getting active on Twitter and recognized that there was a wealth of awesome people, all EPL/FPL addicts like me, who I could talk with and increase my enjoyment of both the “real” weekend games and the FPL game.  By “active”, I guess I should clarify.  For a good while I just read people’s tweets, amazed that I could create an entire Twitter world around the sport that I loved but that very few people around me wanted to talk or hear about.

After a few weeks of watching, I started seeking out people who played the FPL game and began tweeting.  I expected to be virtually ignored in a place full of fans so much more knowledgeable than myself, but got some responses, retweets, whatever.  @FPLHints was one of the first people to say hello and welcome me and I appreciate that to this day.  I never would have imagined that I’d be sitting here a few months later actually contributing to his blog.  The problem was, my addiction was about to go to another level.

I got more involved in discussions about FPL in general and the game took on new meaning.  I started learning about the importance of double game weeks, the questions to ask yourself when deciding whether to take a 4 point hit on an extra transfer or not, how to back up questionable starters with carefully selected subs in a specific order, how different opponents might affect a manager’s starting lineup and formation for the coming week; all subtle nuances that I was blind to the year before.

Along with my increased involvement and heightened interest came better scores.  I was able to capitalize on opportunities that I now recognized and amazingly moved into the top 100,000, hitting game week highs in the 80’s that I had never come close to before.  One week I even broke 90.  

The momentum carried forward to the point that I found myself hitting the top 50,000 and pinching myself along the way.  The banter and discussions I had with so many knowledgeable football fans only made it all better.  Before I knew it, I was talking FPL with not only people from the UK, but also people from Ireland, Australia, Canada, India, and many other countries, including some equally addicted fellow Americans.

For me, the season ended too early.  I overcame a deficit to win my mini-league over the final 2 gws of the season and finished the season with my highest ever ranking; 33,058.  I didn’t want the momentum to stop.  I still have so much to learn and so much to improve upon but that will have to wait until next season, when I once again face the uniquely American phenomenon of having to select my team on Friday night so as not to risk sleeping past the typical 6:30 a.m. Saturday morning game week deadline.

Yes, the life of an American FPL junkie comes with some obstacles, but none of them put a dent in our enthusiasm for the sport we love to follow and the game we love to play.

Until August…….

@EPLFanForLife (Walt)