Last weeks pick flopped. It was as simple as that. A lot of FPL managers put their faith in Romelu Lukaku, and without sounding overly smug (difficult when I actually selected him as my FlyBuy pick), I hate to say I told you so.
His lack of gametime since GW22 confirmed my suspicions. That said, as regular readers will know by now, FlyBuy is not just a "one-off" pick; it is a player who I suspect has the potential to go on a run. The DGW for Everton means Lukaku remains a popular transfer choice and one I have deliberated over going with myself. But I've decided not to, and keep faith in the in-form J-Rod in my own team. He may be only playing once in DGW31, and away at Spurs, but I think he will stay amongst the points.
So, onto this mega-gameweek and my choice for FlyBuy has to be someone whose team is playing twice, right? Right.
Someone who used to be a must-have for FPL managers, but who nobody in their right mind would touch with a barge pole this season, right? Right.
Someone with stats of scored 11 and assisted 7 last season, but whose figures of 0 and 0 this season make for painful reading, right? Right.
Someone who cost £8.5m as the start of this season, but whose value has plummeted to just £7.7m at the time of writing, right? Right.
Interestingly, this still puts his price at £0.4m HIGHER than he reached last season, despite his ability to rack up big points.
But that was at his old club, his value increased for no other reason than this season he joined the League Champions (stop laughing at the back!).
I refer of course to the man with the craziest hair in the Premier League, Andy Carroll. No, wait, his is the stupidest hair in the League.
No, this honour goes to Man Utd midfielder, Marouane Fellaini. A terrible first season in a terrible team. But his return to the midfield has impressed many in his 3 appearances recently. A season hampered by injury and trying to fit into a misfiring team has seen his opportunities and his confidence suffer.
But I predict he will score big against West Ham, and he could well make the difference in the Manchester derby. Crazy talk, right? Right. I've been up since 4am and the strong java is kicking in.
However, what if I'm right? You'll be kicking yourself if I am; but I don't think anyone is going to be rushing to bring Fellaini in even after reading this. But what if you need a differential? Surely he's worth considering? Currently owned by just 3.5% of FPL managers (many of which will be ghostships who got him in for GW1 I imagine).
Man Utd will be buzzing after their unexpected progression in the Champions League, and could get through this DGW on adrenaline alone.
It's worth considering...
By the way, I couldn't find a clip of Fellaini scoring league goals in a Utd shirt, so watch this instead and let it get your juices flowing for this incredible double gameweek!!!
A good return for last weeks #FlyBuy pick which was Southampton's Jay Rodriguez (J-Rod). He ended his drought of no goals in 4 games prior to GW29 as predicted.
He scored and picked up all 3 Bonus Points on offer to provide a healthy return of 9 Points to those of you who had him in your team. Like me. Which was a relief with the limited fixtures GW29 offered.
To be honest, it was these 9 Points from J-Rod (and the 10 Points I unexpectedly got from Jordan Mutch) that led to me personally racking up a respectable 56 Points when I was anticipating far less.
J-Rod will hopefully continue to gather up points this weekend when Southampton face Norwich at home. And to be honest, that is the point of FlyBuy; not just a "one week wonder". Hopefully I am selecting players that may have been out of the points for one reason or another (injury, poor form, tough fixtures etc) who can go on a run.
When I select a player, I tend to think about a projected period of approx. 5 GW's. I think I need to go and have a look at the Stats to see if I am proving successful with this. I hope to produce a quick article next week to post here on the Blog to see how this is working out.
So, onto this week. GW30 sees FPL return to some semblance of normality before things are shaken up with the DGW coming up in GW31. And probably GW34. And GW37. Opportunities to get these postponed fixtures are few and far between and the general consensus is that these are where they will be slotted in.
I need to choose a player who ideally will take advantage of a couple of these DGW's. Someone who more was expected of this season, but who has not quite hit the mark. My pick is someone who I have had my eye on as a potential pick and I was just waiting for him to return from injury.
Despite having all his hair cut off, I don't think this will have the same effect as when Samson lost his. For those not familiar, Samson was a biblical figure who had supernatural powers, until his hair was cut off. Without it he was powerless.
Not so with my FlyBuy pick. He faces relegation battlers Cardiff at home this weekend, before a DGW consisting of a home again against the other Welsh team in the EPL (Swansea) and a potentially tricky match away at Newcastle.
I refer, of course, to on-loan striker Romelu Lukaku. Injured since the start of the year, he made a 32 minute cameo appearance in GW28 coming off the bench to score. Currently owned by 13.4% of managers and with Everton sitting in 7th place in the League, he satisfies the FlyBuy parameters ideally.
He is my top transfer target after this GW where I aim to sell J-Rod to put the Big Belgian into my squad for the DGW and beyond.
Let's just hope he engages "Beast Mode" and scores the points we all know he is capable of.
Make sure you take a look at this bizarre offering of a song and video about Romelu "Tank" Lukaku. FLY
After a brilliant start with #FlyBuy in GW17 (Rickie Lambert - 7 pts) I came back to earth with a resounding thump in GW18. My choice of Roberto Soldado failed to deliver - along with the majority of the Tottenham team. A disappointing 1 pt return was not great. Still, this was the same score as Suarez so not a complete disaster.
When I trialled #FlyBuy in GW16 before "going live" I chose a player who had been out for a while, but who I was convinced would go on a run of good form. After all, this is what this pick is all about; not just a "one week wonder".
My trial pick from GW16 is going to be chosen again. With his first 90 minutes since GW9 under his belt, and with a goal to boot, the player with the potential to fly high again, and who you should maybe buy is: Hatem Ben Arfa
Admittedly Newcastle face Arsenal at home, but this boy has magic in his boots and I fancy him for another goal tomorrow.
As you all know by now, each FPLH writer has a GW pick that is promoted on Twitter and/or on this blog prior to each Gameweek. I am responsible for #HotPick, #Punt and #Reject. Matej picks #CalledIt, Walt picks #JackInTheBox and Fly picks #FlyBuy. The parameters are outlined below.
#HotPick:
Parameters: None (but primarily a midfielder or forward)
Definition:
A player that I think will be score or assist during the Gameweek. In the event that the #HotPick is a GK or DEF we would hope for a clean sheet.
Minimum Targeted Success Rate:
70%
---
#Punt:
Parameters:
Not from a Top 3 team. Primarily a midfielder or forward.
Ideally a player with less than 10% ownership.
The player can be re-used as a #Punt later in the season.
Definition:
A player that I think is under-rated but could score or assist during the Gameweek. In the event that the #Punt is a GK or DEF we would hope for a clean sheet.
Minimum Targeted Success Rate:
60%
---
#Reject:
Parameters:
None
Definition:
One to avoid. A player that I think will bag less than 3 points during the Gameweek.
Minimum Targeted Success Rate:
90%
---
#CalledIt:
Parameters:
Primarily a midfielder or forward. A player that is owned by 5% or less.
Can be selected from any Premier League team.
The player can be re-used as a #CalledIt later in the season.
Definition:
Effectively a differential player that could score or assist during the Gameweek. In the event that the #CalledIt is a GK or DEF, we would hope for a clean sheet.
Minimum Targeted Success Rate:
50%
---
#JackInTheBox:
Parameters:
A player that is owned by 5% or less.
Only selected from a bottom 8 Premier League team.
The player can be re-used as a #JackInTheBox later in the season.
Definition:
Trickiest pick with difficult parameters. Someone who can potentially surprise.
Minimum Targeted Success Rate:
25%
---
#FlyBuy:
Parameters:
A player that is owned by more than 3% but less than 25%.
Only selected from a 5th-15th placed Premier League team.
The player can be re-used as a #FlyBuy later in the season.
Definition:
Not a differential & not an obvious pick. An average player that can potentially "fly".
It is increasingly becoming evident that there is a golden rule to selecting your Captain this season. It goes as follows:
"If Liverpool are playing at home, captain Suarez. If they are playing away, captain Suarez"
So surely that is the end of this weeks article then? Captain Suarez. End of.
Not quite. Although following his exploits against Spurs in GW16 (22 points, or 44 if he was your Captain pick) it seems impossible to consider anyone else.
This is even more relevant following the injury to his only other real rival for the armband, Sergio Aguero. Predictions currently vary as to the extent of his calf injury and how many GW's it will keep him out for, but I don't think he'll be back before the New Year.
So, does Suarez have any rivals for the captaincy. Arguably not, but he can't continue to rack up double figure scores every GW can he? Let's look at his stats. Bearing in mind he missed the first 5 GW's this season due to suspension, the top 3 scoring players each GW is listed below, with Suarez's stats alongside. All scores have been doubled to reflect what you would have scored if they were your Captain that GW.
The evidence is overwhelming. Suarez has no clear rivals for the captaincy. Even in the weeks he was outside the top 3 scoring players, he would STILL have given you double figure points except in GW10 and GW13.
Suarez has been the top points scorer in 5 separate GW's, including the last 3, and in the top 3 highest points scorers in 6 of the 11 GW's he has been eligible to play in.
Contrast that with his nearest rival, Aguero, who has appeared in the list only once as top points scorer and only 3 times in total. In terms of multiple appearances in that list there are only:
Other popular Captain picks include Romelu Lukaku, Yaya Toure, Loic Remy, Mesut Ozil, , Daniel Sturridge (pre-injury), Olivier Giroud and Wayne Rooney.
It may surprise you to note that all of these have appeared in the top 3 only once, except Olivier Giroud and Wayne Rooney who have not appeared AT ALL!
But what about representatives in the top points scorers based on the club they play for? This may affect your decision making for future Captain choice in future. Listed below are the number of appearances in the overall list of top points scorers (top 3) per club. If the club is not listed, it means they have only been in the list once, or not at all:
Liverpool - 12
Man City - 8
Arsenal & Chelsea - 6
Everton - 5
Southampton - 3
Cardiff, Swansea, West Brom, Newcastle, Tottenham - 2
This suggests you might want to select your Captain from one of the current (at the time of writing) top 5 teams in the Premier League. Choosing from elsewhere is always going to be risky looking at the evidence above.
If you (by some miracle) have managed to select the correct Captain choice in every single GW to date, it averages out at 34.6 Pts per GW. Realistically, if your Captain delivers 30 Pts per GW you will probably be floating around near the very top of the overall rankings.
This is not going to happen if you select the incorrect Captain. Suarez is probably the only realistic choice at present, but even he has to have an off day like in GW's 10 and 13 again surely? A lot of us predicted it last weekend against Spurs, but his 2 goals, 3 assists and 3 bonus points made us all look a bit stupid. Most of us decided to switch the Captaincy from Suarez to Aguero, Rooney or Lukaku who all managed 10 Pts (remember, I'm talking about if you captained them) compared to the 44 racked up by Suarez.
Fixtures coming up for him are:
GW17: Cardiff (H)
GW18: Man City (A)
GW19: Chelsea (A)
GW20: Hull City (H)
If FPL managers decided to not Captain him away at Spurs in GW16, then you'd no doubt be tempted not to Captain Suarez away at Man City or Chelsea. But this is a truly world class player. Does the opposition matter? Does home advantage matter? Evidently not.
Who else are you going to go with? Lukaku has some attractive looking fixtures when Suarez is facing his "difficult" opposition; The Beast goes up against Sunderland and Southampton at home.
Rooney will come into contact with Hull City and Norwich City (both away). Potentially points there surely? Especially with RVP's continuing absence.
A lot of managers are already rushing to ditch Aguero (100,000 transfers out at the time of writing, and rising fast! [EDIT: 250,000 - An increase of 150,000 in 24 hours!!] and apart from Suarez and Rooney, the most popular player to bring in is the guy who will try and fill Aguero's boots in real life - Alvaro Negredo.
Hang on a minute though. Managers are rushing to transfer Suarez IN to their teams? This GW? But...but...but....but that means YOU DON'T OWN HIM ALREADY!?!?!?!!?
Let's check the ownership stats. 44.3% ownership. No, hang on. 44.4% ownership. Wait a minute, 44.5% ownership. It's going up by the minute! [EDIT: Now 45.6% ownership - 91,000 managers have brought him in during the last 48 hours] But this seems ridiculously low considering the points return he has been consistently giving.
Granted, he is the second most owned player this season, but he is still waaay behind this years leader, Aaron Ramsey, who is owned by 62.4% of all managers.
I'd hate to think what your overall position is if you don't already own Suarez. And if you do own him but have chosen not to Captain him every week, what were you thinking?!?
I'm speculating here, but based on the fact Suarez has been the top points scorer for the last 3 GW's running, and he faces Cardiff at Anfield this weekend, EVERY SINGLE Suarez owner is going to Captain him!
So, have you got the bottle to do anything different? Lukaku? (Reminder - top points scorer once in GW6.) Rooney? (Never been in the top 3 weekly highest points scorers.) Maybe a punt on Negredo seeing as you've brought him in? Be warned, he's only scored double figures once in GW 12. 10 Pts (or 20 if you captained him of course).
It's a choice of Suarez or Suarez for GW17. The following 2 GW's will test your faith in Suarez. Will you swap him out because of the quality of the opposition he is facing away from home?
Remember:
"If Liverpool are playing at home, captain Suarez.
PS - Stay tuned later this week for my #FlyBuy pick. He won't be worth giving the captaincy to, but with everyone going with Suarez in GW17, you'll probably need a differential somewhere!!
