Saturday, 16 July 2016

FPL Strategy: Three Rotating Budget Defenders

With the new football season not far away, the time has come for me to seriously think about my strategy for the forthcoming Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season. A key part of this strategy is going to involve a change of tact with regards to my defence. I have gone into the data driving my strategic decision elsewhere in this blog, so I won’t reiterate too much of the underlying theory but the basic premise is that my defensive line will consist of two premium, attack-minded defenders from top sides, and three budget defenders occupying the third defensive position on a rotating basis. The focus of this short blog is to explain how I have decided which clubs these three rotating players shall come from.
Methodology
My task is to find the best combination of fixtures for three clubs from whom I can pick three defenders for a low price: £4.5m each, or £13.5m in total. A favourable fixture will be determined as:
  1. A home game
  2. Against a weak opposition to increase the probability of a clean sheet
The players must fulfil the criteria of being cheap and highly likely to play a full season. Therefore, it is prudent to look for defenders from the same ‘weak’ teams that will form the opposition. There are cheap players from the big teams, and they are likely to keep clean sheets, unfortunately they are also more unlikely to play.
The roster of teams I have chosen (subjectively) to define as bottom-half fodder are as follows:
  1. Bournemouth (BOU)
  2. Burnley (BUR)
  3. Crystal Palace (CPL)
  4. Hull City (HUL)
  5. Middlesbrough (MID)
  6. Stoke City (STO)
  7. Sunderland (SUN)
  8. Swansea (SWA)
  9. Watford (WAT)
  10. West Brom (WBA)


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