FPL Tips from a Top 0.03% Fantasy Football Manager

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is the most popular fantasy football game in the world and I am glad that my past 2 seasons went well.  I finished in the top 0.03%: 770th in 2014/15 and 1,284th in 2015/16. Doing well once might be a fluke but twice should mean something. Of course, luck plays an extremely important part as well.

This year, as part of an overhaul and redevelopment of the Premier League (changes to the logo and website), the FPL game is likely to undergo a rebuild, a new look too. Last year there were changes to the wildcards, bonus points system (BPS) and Chips were introduced. In line with the launch of FPL 2016/17, I thought it would be good to write about the things I found useful and share it with the FPL community to be better prepared for whatever changes or situations the new season might have. Reading this will not make you the new FPL champion but I certainly hope it makes you enjoy the game more and do better! I hope you guys like it and find it useful. Do check my blog if you like this piece :)

Be a unique manager, play your own game, be yourself!

There is more than one way to play FPL. You should find your own style, your own strategies, form your own habits or preferences. You will hear or read different opinions and they are all likely to have some form of merits but you are you. Be yourself to fully enjoy the game. After all, it's your game and no one else's. If you have read my earlier post of my analysis of last season's top 50 FPL managers, or if you have played the game for some time, you will know that there are multiple paths/methods to get to the same end result in FPL. It is important to have information and do your homework/research but decide on your moves based on your own judgement. At least for me personally, I enjoy the game more this way.

Have a fixed ethos based on your strategy but be FLEXIBLE, be adaptable

As a continuation of my earlier point about playing the game in your own way, you do need to have some fixed guidelines (your own ethos) in order to do well. You can't be too fickle minded. It will get you no where. At the same time, you can't be too rigid. I want to stress that you have to be alert to spot what is wrong with your plan and be FLEXIBLE enough to change it. This is coming from my experience for the last two years in which I ended strongly in 770th and 1284th after adjusting my strategies/moves slightly during the season. I usually don't have the best of starts. There were many complaints about last season being a freak one, a difficult one and one for the casuals. Well, I think it's true that last season was hard so all the more one has to be flexible and adapt accordingly. Of course, luck plays a big part too but let's leave that out of the equation for now.

FPL is a marathon, not a sprint

I did not coin this phrase. I heard it before and it's one of my favourites. FPL consists of 38 Gameweeks and spreads over 10 months so it is important to think long term. Plan your short term goals/gains as part of your long term plan. It will serve you well, at least it did for me.  Don't be too proud or snobbish if you are doing well in the first 10 Gameweeks.. Banter without bad intentions is fine. Also don't be disheartened if you are not doing so well either. Work at it. Remember, things can change a lot over the season.

Don't learn from your mistakes (blindly)

What didn't work previously might work now and vice versa. I purposely wrote DON'T learn from your past mistakes because I want to highlight that your mistake(s) from the previous season(s) might not be mistake(s) this season. Confused? Let me clarify. FPL is first and foremost a guessing game, a prediction game. You guess who will get the most points and make your moves accordingly. Of course there are some parts of it which are not guesswork. For example, not making 15 transfers every week. So in a guessing game like FPL, no one can 100% say that you are making a mistake by getting this player or making this move etc. I personally like to increase my chance of guessing it right and you do that by doing homework. There is no guarantee that what didn't work previously will not work this time. The key is to learn from your mistakes wisely.

I also want to highlight that every season of FPL is different. I mentioned at the beginning of the article that last year brought about new changes such as the wildcard timing and introduction of Chips. The rule changes, the points calculation changes, the options available change, etc. So you have to know the context when you succeeded or failed previously. Don't follow your past moves blindly.

Pre-season Training & Friendlies

My initial final point for this post was "Changes to the game for this season", which I will highlight how the game is different from last season so as to be better prepared and it is related to all my other points. I will post something on the changes in the future after the game is launched. As the game will only be launched during the week commencing 18 July, I decided to change it to something else: Pre-season Training & Friendlies.

The main reason for pre-season is to build up a good physical and tactical base for the actual season. As such, it's a time for some testing and confirmation for the clubs. The players would be physically pushed more. Because of these 2 reasons, personally I am not too bothered about the teams' form or results. The main thing I look out for is clues to who might be in the preferred starting XI. Those players without a proper pre-season training (for example, players coming back from injuries or Euro2016 or Copa America) and not featuring much in the final friendlies are likely to be only on my watchlist. Another thing I would look out for are the formations and tactics used by the teams.

Conclusion

So in summation, I will just reiterate the 5 things that I think will be useful for FPL managers to know before the start of the season. On a separate note, in case you still do not know yet, the mobile app for FPL will be free this season! Hopefully it will be nice and easy to use or you can always go for an alternative free app. Last but not least, good luck for the season!

• Be a unique manager, play your own game, be yourself
• Have a fixed ethos based on your strategy but be FLEXIBLE
• FPL is a marathon, not a sprint
• Don't learn from your mistakes (blindly)
• Pre-season Training & Friendlies

Written by Kidzio

FPL Enthusiast & Blogger

fantasypremierleaguehappyhour.wordpress.com

Cheers to the FPL community!

FPL Strategy: Three Rotating Budget Defenders

With the new football season not far away, the time has come for me to seriously think about my strategy for the forthcoming Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season. A key part of this strategy is going to involve a change of tact with regards to my defence. I have gone into the data driving my strategic decision elsewhere in this blog, so I won’t reiterate too much of the underlying theory but the basic premise is that my defensive line will consist of two premium, attack-minded defenders from top sides, and three budget defenders occupying the third defensive position on a rotating basis. The focus of this short blog is to explain how I have decided which clubs these three rotating players shall come from.

Methodology

My task is to find the best combination of fixtures for three clubs from whom I can pick three defenders for a low price: £4.5m each, or £13.5m in total. A favourable fixture will be determined as:

1. A home game
2. Against a weak opposition to increase the probability of a clean sheet

The players must fulfil the criteria of being cheap and highly likely to play a full season. Therefore, it is prudent to look for defenders from the same ‘weak’ teams that will form the opposition. There are cheap players from the big teams, and they are likely to keep clean sheets, unfortunately they are also more unlikely to play.

The roster of teams I have chosen (subjectively) to define as bottom-half fodder are as follows:

1. Bournemouth (BOU)
2. Burnley (BUR)
3. Crystal Palace (CPL)
4. Hull City (HUL)
5. Middlesbrough (MID)
6. Stoke City (STO)
7. Sunderland (SUN)
8. Swansea (SWA)
9. Watford (WAT)
10. West Brom (WBA)

Click here to read the full article (by Peter Blake)

5 Things People Love About Fantasy Premier League

5 Rotation Sequences You Must Know About (Part I)

They say that variety is the spice of life.  It certainly is in fantasy football.  Knowing of good rotation sequences is essential so that you can alternate your goalkeepers and defenders accordingly.

You should aim to field your defensive players in as many home fixtures as possible as probability & stats indicate that teams will concede less at home than away - thus the less games on the road the better.

Moreover, it's important to find pairings who are due to play newly promoted teams or opposition that doesn't tend to fare well on their travels.  Ideally, you don't want two elite teams as part of your defensive pairings or else you will risk benching a classy defender.

Having said all of that, form is key and it will always override reputations, as was evident last year.  My hand picked combinations are not the be all or end all.  They are only meant to serve as a guide for potential "auto-pilot" sequences.

Looking ahead to the 16/17 season I have come across some interesting patterns that I wanted to share with you.  Subject to unforeseen fixture changes, the following combinations can potentially work for up to 9 Gameweeks:

Combo 1 - Southampton & Tottenham: "SOUTH HOT"

1 - WAT (H)

2 - PAL (H)

3 - SUN (H)

4 - STO (A)

5 - SWA (H)

6 - MID (A)

Chief's Preliminary Rating: 6.5/10

Combo 2 - Leicester & Sunderland: "FOXY SUN"

1 - HUL (A)

2 - MID (H)

3 - SWA (H)

4 - EVE (H)

5 - BUR (H)

6 - PAL (H)

7 - WBA (H)

8 - STO (A)

9 - PAL (H)

Chief's Preliminary Rating: 7/10

 

Combo 3 - Middlesbrough & West Brom: "BRO BROM"

1 - STO (H)

2 - EVE (H)

3 - MID (H)

4 - PAL (H)

5 - WHU (H)

6 - STO (A)

7 - SUN (A)

8 - WAT (H)

Chief's Preliminary Rating: 8/10

 

Combo 4- Southampton & West Ham: "HAM HAM"

1 - WAT (H)

2 - BOU (H)

3 - SUN (H)

4 - WAT (H)

5 - SWA (H)

6 - SOU (H)

7 - MID (H)

8 - BUR (H)

9 - SUN (H)

Chief's Preliminary Rating: 10/10

 

Combo 5 - Man City and West Ham: "HAM CITY"

1 - SUN (H)

2 - BOU (H)

3 - WHU (H)

4 - WAT (H)

5 - BOU (H)

6 - SOU (H)

7 - MID (H)

8 - EVE (H)

9 - SUN (H)

Chief's Preliminary Rating: 10/10

 

If you wish to discover more rotation sequences, you can download Fantasy Football Fix's pre-season pack and find the best rotation sequences at a canter.

Philosophy of a Two-Time Top 400 FPL Manager

I have finished in the global top 400 for the past two seasons (352nd and 102nd respectively).  In this article I will discuss my Fantasy Premier League (FPL) philosophy.  In addition, I will provide some insight as to how I navigated to the top-end of the overall table.

Watch a lot of football

It goes without saying, in order to be a successful fantasy football manager, you have to watch as much PremierLeague football as possible. I have been quite lucky in the past two seasons that I have had free time at the weekends to do so. This allowed me to take in as many ninety minutes of football as possible. You learn so much more about a players FPL potential by watching him in action for 90 minutes as opposed to highlights on Match of the Day. Having said that, Match of the Day is an essential part of my fantasy football study each week, whether it be live on a Saturday night or on catch up during the week, I make sure I never miss it.

Make your own decisions

I always go with my own gut feeling rather than following polls or the opinions of others. At the end of the day it is my fantasy football team so why would I follow others. Looking at polls and forums is a good source of information but it is important not to let them cloud your judgement. It can be very easy to follow the crowd, for example with a captaincy poll, but what are you going to gain by picking the same captain as the majority of others? I do spend some time reading fantasy football forums and looking at polls but I always ensure that any decision I make is my own. 

Avoid obsessing over team value

When I read fantasy football forums I often come across people discussing and comparing their team value. Team value is one aspect of FPL that I have never worried about. I know a lot of managers build their team value over the season by making transfers early in a gameweek with the view of having more money to play with in the latter part of the season. This is a logical strategy but not one that I follow. I am more concerned about getting points on the board rather than my team’s value. At the end of the day, there are no prizes for the most valuable team. This has not affected my overall rank over the course of the last two seasons. My team value at the end of last season was 105.4m.

Don't be so trigger happy with transfers

I believe a big factor in my success over the past two seasons has been my reluctance to take points hits for transfers. I don’t like the idea of starting a gameweek on -4 or -8 before a ball has been kicked. In total last season, I made 39 transfers which shows that I am not trigger happy when it comes to changes. As often as possible, I avoid making a transfer in a gameweek so that I can make two free transfers the following week which gives me much more flexibility on who I can bring in. The only instance where I take a hit for a transfer is when it is necessary due to injuries/suspensions or if I have a strong gut feeling that a player is going to heavily outscore one of my current players.  

Hold off on transfers until Friday

I like to hold off on making my transfer/transfers until Friday at least. A lot of fantasy football managers like to make their transfers early in the week in order to increase their team value. As I already mentioned, I don’t worry too much about my team value so I usually leave my transfers until the end of the week. If you make a transfer early in the week you run the risk of that player picking up an injury before the weekends match which may force you into another unnecessary transfer and a points hit. Premier league managers also give their pre-match press conferences on a Friday afternoon which usually gives us an insight into which players are fit/unavailable for the weekend. This is another reason why I try to wait until Friday at least before making any adjustments to my team.  

Maintain a watchlist

I keep a watchlist and update it weekly. When it comes to making transfers then, I chose from my watchlist rather than having to go through all the team lists. This saves a lot of time. My watchlist consists of players who I consider to have a chance of being transferred into my team in the near future. At the end of each gameweek, I go through the players on my watchlist and remove any players I deem surplus to requirements. This will include players who have picked up an injury, who are out of form or who have lost their place in the starting eleven at their club. I then proceed to go through each of the 20 premier league teams individually assessing how many points each individual player has received during the previous gameweek. I update my watchlist by adding some of these players who are performing well.

Plan ahead for double gameweeks/blanks

It is important to plan ahead for double gameweeks/blanks. When it comes to double gameweeks a lot of managers load up their team with players who will play twice. In my opinion, this is not always a good idea. I go for a more balanced approach. Last season with the introduction of the bench boost chip, the majority of managers used this chip in a double gameweek in order to have 30 players for that week. I played my bench boost in the double gameweek but didn’t overload on double gameweekers. Going into the double, I kept a hold of Mahrez, Alli and Kane who had a single gameweek. Alli and Kane scored 28 points beween them in their one game. 

Get your formation right

I always use a 3-4-3 formation unless I have an injured/suspended player. Last season in particular there was a lot of discussion about whether or not to go for a strong front eight or ‘freight’. This is the strategy of having five strong midfielders as well as three strong attackers. This results in a FPL manager having to bench one of his/her strong players each week. This is a strategy I avoided. One of the most frustrating things about fantasy football is when one of your bench players scores highly. By avoiding a strong front eight I cut out this possibility. I much prefer to have a strong front seven with one midfielder as bench fodder. This cuts out any chance of the frustration of leaving points on the bench. I witnessed this on many occasions in my private leagues when rivals who had a strong front eight left the likes of Mahrez and Alli on the bench who went on to score highly in that gameweek. This would drive me nuts, so I just avoid a strong front eight and put faith in my four midfielders and three attackers. This is not to say a strong front eight is not a good idea, it’s just a strategy that I don’t like.     

Don’t be stubborn on streaky players

One thing I learnt from last season is that it is important not to be stubborn. I refused to bring in Jamie Vardy during his hot streak as I was stuck in my ways that he wasn’t good enough for my fantasy football team and that his goals would dry up. I missed out on a lot of points by doing so. I did the same with Ighalo. On the other hand, later in the season, I brought in Mesut Ozil despite not being a fan of him in terms of fantasy football. He was on a good run of form so I bit the bullet and brought him in. He continued his good form and brought home the points for me.

Be careful with your chips

I am not a fan of the chips aspect of FPL. This is probably due to the fact that last season I held healthy leads in most of my leagues and these chips gave my rivals the opportunity to close the gap in the final weeks. Thankfully I held on to those leads but when my rivals rolled out their triple captains and bench boosts it was scary times for me. I won’t discuss the chips in too much detail as they may not even be a part of the game this season. Last season I held on to my all out attack chip in case of an emergency where I had a shortage of defenders. I used my bench boost in a double gameweek which was successful. Triple captain chip not so much. I used it on big Rom Lukaku in his double gameweek in which he blanked in both games. If the chips do still exist when the game is launched I will most likely use them in the same way, just not with Lukaku!

Forget about your allegiances

When it comes to fantasy football, we must forgot about any allegiances we have to a particular team. Put player biases aside.  I often come across managers who support a certain team and will always have three players from that team in their FPL team for the entire season. I am a Manchester United fan but in the past two seasons I have very rarely had a Manchester United player in my fantasy football team.  Speaking of which...

Aguerooooooooooooooooooo!

As a Manchester United fan it kills me to say this but in my view, when it comes to fantasy football, Aguero is a must have. Whenever he is fit, I always ensure that he is in my team. He may be the most expensive player in the game, but he is too good to go without. 

Follow me on Twitter as I aim for a third consecutive top 400 finish in FPL!

Mark McGettigan, FPL General

 

5 Things People Hate About Fantasy Premier League

Broadcasted by: Joe Ryan

 

Classic Football Shirts

It goes without saying, I am a nostalgic football fun and love all things retro!  This summer I have teamed up with @ClassicShirts to show case some of their fantastic offerings!

Forget England's failure against Iceland and look to the past!

Will France emulate Zizou in 2016?

Sometimes, class does matter! Euro Heavyweights.

Form is key...

What's in it for you?

Aside from buying a piece of nostalgia, you can get 10% OFF all orders before the end of August 2016 by entering FPLH10 as the coupon code before you proceed to check out.

Barry Manager

Let's get straight to it.  Last season was far from perfect.  My long suffering non-fantasy team succumbed to relegation for a second time in less than ten years.  More significantly, I was rocked on a fantasy football level, after my record of top 1% finishes was hit by an undeniable blip.  Though I have never claimed to be an expert, I am all about performance-driven results.  With the confirmed arrival of the Galacticos managers to the Premier League things needed to change.

The proverbial stuffing was certainly knocked out of me. In that there is no doubt. My ego, "Chief" was hit hard and floored.  So much so that it impacted on my alter ego, "Barry Manager" and brought him to the fore (mini-league rivals already know him).  The former being the front-end that knows best, the latter being the inner subconscious that makes you question more team changes than you should.  In many ways, Chief has been the manager & Barry has been the assistant.

With time to reflect over the summer, I decided to act and make a simple decision.  The number 2 in charge has finally been promoted.  For the time being at least, Barry Manager is in full control of operations and will be taking over with immediate effect.  The Chief has relinquished all of his duties after five memorable and trophy-laden years.  Barry will manage the team to the best of his abilities, in his own imitable way.  Here's to hope.  Here's to Barry Manager!

Long Live The Chief!