Guest post by
@fplchips
 |
| Can you bend it like Adam? |
With the new Premier League season almost upon us, Fantasy Football
addicts are frantically tracking transfers, following pre-season friendlies and
studying the fixture lists. Like all my FPL decisions, I base my GW1 squad on
two things: gut instinct and cold, hard stats. I won’t bore you with the inner
workings of my gut, but I do want to shed some light on the stats I use to get
the most out of my £100m starting budget.
I'm only considering value for money based on last year’s stats here and
you should use this information alongside fixtures, rotation, friendlies and
hunches. There’s no guarantee that last year’s form will carry over, but it’s
the only data we have at this point. The aim is to create a short-list of
players that represent good value and to identify any who may have slipped
under the FPL price-setters’ radar.
For each position I’ll be highlighting:
- Star Player - scores highly in all areas, though perhaps less so in value.
- New Arrival - a player with good stats, who should do even better at his new club.
- Hidden Gem - a real find, someone with good points/game who for one reason or another played less games last year than I expect them to play this year.
- Auto-rotation - low value, but very high points/game. This player should be paired with a regular starter with decent value/game on the bench. Think of it as fixture proof rotation.
- Bargain basement - great value at a rock-bottom price.
My choices are based on a spreadsheet that takes Starting Price, Points
and Game-time from last season and calculates *Value, Points/Game and
Value/Game-time.
*NB: whenever I talk about value I'm referring to points/price, not
price.
Goalkeepers
Star Player - Pantilimon
I had him for most of last year and the reason was simple: no-one else
matches his points/game. His value is also high and will sky-rocket if he keeps
his place under Advocaat.
Consider: Fabianski, Mignolet
New Arrival - Petr Cech
No-brainer here. Petr Cech’s points/game ratio is extremely high and his
increased game-time at Arsenal will boost his value. I expect their defence to
improve with Cech in goal.
Hidden Gem - Butland
Jack Butland is Mark Hughes’ first choice keeper and if he can maintain
his points/game throughout the season he’ll offer unbeatable value.
Auto-rotation - Myhill
Boaz Myhill’s points/game was second to none whilst deputising for Ben
Foster last year. Given the uncertainty over Foster’s fitness in the short term
and Myhill’s low price, he is the ideal auto-rotation candidate. Pair him with
the likes of Ruddy on the bench.
Bargain basement - Ruddy
In order to judge Ruddy, I dropped his 2013/14 FPL stats into my
spreadsheet, so do bear this in mind. He scores highly for value as well as
value/game-time. The only area he falls short on is points/game, but if you’re
looking to save money then Ruddy’s your man. Whilst you’re at it, you could
pick Rudd as your bench warmer - he’s as cheap as the proverbial FPL chip.
Defenders
Star Player - Terry/Ivanovic
Take your pick, it’s so hard to split these two. Both offer unbeatable
points/game and, despite their premium price tag, both represent good value. If
you really can’t afford one of them in your team, then Azpilicueta and Jagielka
offer increased value for slightly fewer points/game.
Consider: Jagielka, Azpilicueta
New arrival - Clyne
Ever improving and now playing for a Liverpool side that sees attack as
the best form of defence, Nathaniel Clyne scores highly in all my stats and
offers better value than Terry or Ivanovic. Liverpool’s defence was comparable
to Southampton’s overall and his high transfer fee should ensure that game-time
isn't reduced.
Consider: Wisdom, Chester
Hidden Gem - Huth
Forget Bellerin, if Robert Huth can translate points/game into a long
stint in the first team, he’s the stand-out candidate here. Even with the
tinkerman in charge, I would expect him to double his game time and points
tally. If he did, his value would match that of Terry and Ivanovic.
Auto-rotation - Kolarov
Every year I think about playing Kolarov in this role and every year I
don’t. The stats say yes, but my gut says no. The fact of the matter is that
when he’s on the pitch Kolarov scores big points. Granted he will pick up the
odd one-pointer from a two-minute cameo, but more often than not he plays
against the lesser teams and he delivers with aplomb. Maybe this year my gut
will permit me to buy him.
Bargain basement - Morgan
Very hard to recommend a £4m defender when looking at last year’s stats
because they all played very few games and the promoted teams have no stats
(with the exception of Norwich players from two years ago). There are lots of
options at £4.5m, most carry some risk, but based on the stats alone I'm going
for Morgan. He may miss the opener, but he’s the stand-out option in that
price-bracket. Let’s hope the tinkerman thinks so too.
Consider: O’Shea, Martin Olsson
Midfielders
Star Player - Hazard
There are three candidates and none should come as a surprise. I'm
plumping for Eden Hazard, as he scores highly for value, points/game and
value/game. However, Sanchez and Fabregas are priced in such a way that you
essentially get what you pay for; there’s very little between them.
Consider: Sanchez, Fabregas
New Arrival - Sterling
Just short of the quality of those three is Raheem Sterling. If he can
benefit from Manchester City’s exuberant, attacking style, then he may just
surpass our star midfielders in all three categories. Beware though, if he
doesn't start well he could fall by the wayside, like so many of his
compatriots have at the Etihad.
Consider: Milner, Cabaye
Hidden Gem - Walcott
OK, so not very well hidden, nonetheless it’s hard to see how Theo
Walcott won’t increase his game-time from last year. With such a high points/game
ratio and the possibility of playing as a striker, it would take a brave
manager to leave him out, assuming he can stay fit.
Consider: Ward-Prowse, Deulofeu
Auto-rotation - Adam
Charlie Adam may not be the first name that springs to mind in
pre-season, but his points/game are impressive and at just £6m he would make an
excellent auto-rotating midfielder.
Consider: Rosicky, Osman
Bargain basement - Aarons
Price and game-time are so closely linked here that it’s hard to find
true value, but there are plenty of players with high points/game who could do
a useful job if they get a run in the side. I'm going for Newcastle’s Rolando
Aarons based on his points/game last year. However, as he only played four
times, I must confess my gut had a say in this.
Consider: Dyer, Albrighton
Forwards
Star Player - Kane
Despite his price hike, Harry Kane still offers good value for money
this year. It remains to be seen whether he can re-enact his breakthrough
season, but it’s frightening to think that if he does, his value will increase
due to increased game-time.
Consider: Ulloa, Berahino
New Arrival - Benteke
Benteke’s rebirth under Sherwood was perhaps even more impressive than
Adebayor’s under him at Spurs. If Liverpool can adapt their play to get the
most out of Benteke, then his value/game will rise sharply.
Consider: Ings, Adebayor
Hidden Gem - Adebayor
Despite only playing a handful of times last year, his points/game
remained high and he’s so good under Sherwood that he warrants another mention
here. If he gets anywhere near his 2013/14 stats he’ll make a mockery of his
£6m price tag.
Consider: Gomis, Rodriguez
Auto-rotation - Cisse
With a points/game ratio second only to Sergio Aguero (in Aguero’s best
season to date) Papisse Cisse is the archetypal auto-rotator. At just £6.5m,
back him up on the bench with a regular starter from one of the promoted clubs
and you’ll be in auto-rotation heaven.
Consider: Crouch, Gayle
Bargain Basement - Bojan
You’ll probably have to look at the promoted clubs to find cheap striker
options who play regularly. Instead I’ve picked three slightly more expensive
players, with good points/game, who should get extra game time and kick on from
last year (so a sort of budget hidden gem). Bojan stats lead the way here,
especially with the new additions at Stoke.
Consider: Ideye, Diafra Sakho
So there you have it. Hopefully by getting better value for money across
your team you’ll be able to squeeze in that extra big hitter you’ve been hoping
for.
Hit me up on Twitter and let me know if you found this useful.
