FPL 2012/2013 - Ones to Watch and Ones to Ignore

Hi all, I'm back from my FPL holiday!  The batteries have been recharged and I am ready to go!  Here is my first FPL article of the season*:

*Please note that the selections merely highlight some potential players, as opposed to conveying a definitive list.


FPL 2012/2013 - Ones to Watch & Ones to Ignore

Arsenal

Watch: Lukas Podolski

- Proven goal scoring talent for FC Koln and Germany

- Will be the new RVP if Van Persie leaves Arsenal during the transfer window

Ignore: Andrey Arshavin

- Low down the pecking order in a saturated midfield

- Could be sold or sent on loan before the close of the transfer window

Aston Villa

Watch: Darren Bent

- Primary goalscoring threat for Villa

- Proven pedigree in the Premier League

Ignore: Shay Given

- Past his peak and unlikely to keep many clean sheets

- Better equivalent priced alternatives available

Chelsea

Watch:  Eden Hazard

- Will be Chelsea's main attacking threat from a heavily packed midfield

- Could prove to be the X-factor in a transitional team

Ignore:  Mikel

- His cheap price is indicative of his poor value

- Is unlikely to score goals or feature as a definite regular

Everton

Watch: Nikica Jelavic

- Primary goalscoring threat for Everton

- Appears to be a nailed on first team player

Ignore: Shkodran Mustafi

- Cheap value, but a backup first team defender

- Better off purchasing a cheap defender that is likely to play regularly

Fulham

Watch: Brede Hangeland

- Good value for money, goalscoring potential & has Premier League pedigree

- If Dempsey leaves, Hangeland will be Fulham's most integral player

Ignore: Damien Duff

- Unimpressive at Euro 2012, past his prime and over-priced

- Could be a squad rotation risk

Liverpool

Watch: Joe Allen

- Super cheap price for a Liverpool player & played under Rodgers at Swansea

- Registered four goals and four assists during the Premier League last season

Ignore: Charlie Adam

- Hasn't proven his true class since his move from Blackpool

- Could be consigned to intermittent first team appearances

Man City

Watch:  Mario Balotelli

- Made his name last season and during Euro 2012

- Provided he keeps a cool head, he could become City's most important striker

Ignore: Adam Johnson

- Over priced for the amount of minutes he has played over the past four seasons

- Definite squad rotation risk, despite goals/assists potential

Man Utd

Watch: Shinji Kagawa

- Good attacking attributes and proven class

- Will be key to United' Premier League success for 2012/2013

Ignore: Michael Carrick

- Unlikely to score or assist, despite sound defensive qualities

- Better off buying cheaper attack minded alternatives

Newcastle United

Watch: Hatem Ben Arfa

- Subject to playing often, he will be involved in Newcastle's goals

- A proven match winner that isn't afraid to dribble with the ball

Ignore: Shola Ameobi

- Unlikely to start due to established Ba/Cisse combination

- Woeful league goalscoring rate (19%)

Norwich

Watch: Anthony Pilkington

- Scored eight goals during debut Premier League season

- Could be key to Norwich avoiding relegation

Ignore: Simeon Jackson

- Only scored three Premier League goals last season

- Likely to be overshadowed by Holt and Morison

QPR

Watch: Ji-Sung Park

- Proven work-rate during his time at Man United

- A relatively decent player in a mediocre team

Ignore: Tommy Smith

- Only scored two Premier League goals last season

- Likely to be overshadowed by Cisse and Zamora

Reading

Watch: Pavel Pogrebnyak

- Impressive during his short stint at Fulham

- Likely to be Reading's main goalscoring threat

Ignore: Jordan Obita

- Has never played a league match for Reading

- Very unlikely to feature as a regular in the first team

Southampton

Watch: Guilherme (Guly)

- Dynamic midfielder with an eye to create and score goals

- Scored ten league goals last season

Ignore: Danny Butterfield

- Only played ten league games last season

- Unlikely to make an impact or play 30+ league games during 2012/2013

Stoke City

Watch: Jonathan Walters

- Listed as a midfielder but sometimes operates as a de facto second striker

- Scored seven and assisted five goals last season

Ignore: Cameron Jermoe

- Only scored four goals and played less than a thousand minutes last season

- Unlikely to make an impact or play 30+ league games during 2012/2013

Sunderland

Watch: Ji Dong-Won

- Provided he gets a chance in the first team, he could be a bargain priced attacking threat

- For a young player he has a significant amount of international experience for his country

Ignore: Ahmed Elmohamady

- Played a fractional amount of time during 2011/2012, following his debut season

- Unlikely to make an impact or play 30+ league games during 2012/2013

Swansea

Watch: Michu

- Scored fifteen goals in La Liga last season

- Could be the perfect jigsaw piece to Swansea's attacking mindset

Ignore: Mark Gower

- Was the typical squad rotated midfielder last season

- Will be overshadowed by Laudrup's new signings

Tottenham

Watch: Gareth Bale

- Proven talent and nailed on first teamer

- Can continue to build on previous successes

Ignore: Sandro

- Defense-minded and goal-shy midfielder

- Unlikely to be involved with Tottenham's goals

West Brom

Watch: Yassine El Ghanassy

- Versatile ability to play in different attacking positions

- Capable of creating and scoring goals

Ignore: Sam Mantom

- Has never played a Premier League match for West Brom

- Unlikely to make an impact or play 30+ league games during 2012/2013

West Ham

Watch: Joey O'Brien

- Plays in defense but can also play in midfield

-  Bargain price, definitely worth an option as a cheap defender

Ignore: Carlton Cole

- Has never scored more than 10 goals during a Premier League season

- Woeful league goalscoring rate (22%)

Wigan

Watch: Ali Al-Habsi

- Made many key saves as he helped save his team from relegation last season

- Ideal capability and price for a second substitute FPL keeper

Ignore: David Jones

- Was a squad rotated player last season and didn't score any goals

- Unlikely to make an impact or play 30+ league games during 2012/2013

Recommended Player for Gameweek 32

Recommended Player for Gameweek 32 - David de Gea (Man United)

Many labelled him a £20M flop earlier in the season, but he has defied critics and bounced back.  My recommended player for Gameweek 32 is Manchester United's David de Gea.  Of course I probably should have bought and tipped him a few weeks back.  But I had to be cautious after his previous below par form. 

As of now he has kept an impressive 4 consecutive clean sheets in the Premier League, courtesy of his rejuvenated confidence.  In total he has kept 9 clean sheets from 22 league matches.  I am fairly certain he will continue to improve and build upon his clean sheet record, especially due to United's upcoming fixtures:

Gameweek 32 - QPR (H) - High Clean Sheet Possibility

Gameweek 33 - Wigan (A) - High Clean Sheet Possibility

Gameweek 34 - Aston Villa (H) - High Clean Sheet Possibility

Gameweek 35 - Everton (H) - High Clean Sheet Possibility

As is evident from above, the next 4 fixtures possess a decent United clean sheet possibility in each of those matches.  At 6.2 De Gea is not cheap, but not excessively priced either.  He is surprisingly only the 7th most selected goalie in FPL despite United being top of the league. 

The 21 year old Spaniard currently has no senior international caps to his name, but will almost certainly be a mainstay in the national team for the future.  With United currently topping the league, surely they will strive to keep more clean sheets and park the bus as often as possible when taking the lead in their remaining matches?

I will post My GW 32 Blog Team (with confirmation of my selected captain and vice-captain) a night before the Gameweek commences.

Recommended Player for Gameweek 28

Recommended Player for Gameweek 28 - Luis Suarez (Liverpool)

 

With Gameweek 28 being a “Double Gameweek” (DGW), I have decided to endorse a player influenced by the aforementioned FPL anomaly.  My recommended player for Gameweek 28 is Liverpool’s Luis Suarez. 

There is no question about his controversial nature.  To be honest with you I dislike and condemn him for a number of reasons, ranging from his deliberate hand ball versus Ghana during the 2010 World Cup (which ultimately led to their exit), as well as his disgraceful abuse of Patrice Evra (that led to Suarez’s 8 match ban).  But in spite of that, I must remain unbiased.  He remains the most feasible Everton or Liverpool player to have him in your FPL team for this DGW. 

Firstly, even though he was prohibited from playing in the Premier League from mid-December to the end of January, he remains Liverpool’s top league goal scorer with 6 goals (jointly with Bellamy).  He is a natural goal poacher with 26 goals in 52 for Uruguay’s national team, as well as 81 league goals from 110 matches for Ajax.

Even though Liverpool lost to Arsenal last week, I believe that Liverpool’s League Cup win has instilled a feel good factor within the team.  Crucially, Liverpool’s DGW fixtures are against teams that concede on average at least a goal a game as follows:

Sunderland (A) – Conceded 13 goals in 13 home matches this season (1.00).  Conceded 18 goals in 14 away matches this season (1.28).

Everton (H) – Conceded 15 goals in 13 away matches this season (1.15). Conceded 13 goals in 13 home matches this season (1.00).

Of course it must be noted that Liverpool have had an abysmal record of infrequently scoring more than 2 goals per game this season.  But I ask you, if they are going to score during DGW surely it will be from the boot/head/heel/hand of their joint top scorer and goal poacher?  Don’t base your reasons for not picking him on Liverpool’s previous three league results, after all they were against top 4 opposition (Tottenham, Man United and Arsenal respectively ).  If it makes any difference, their remaining matches appear to be a lot easier, winnable or scoreable, as follows:

GW 29 – QPR (A) – Winnable
GW 30 – Wigan (H) – Winnable
GW 31 – Newcastle (A) – Scoreable
GW 32 – Aston Villa (H) – Winnable
GW 33 – Blackburn (A) – Winnable
GW 34 – Fulham (H) – Winnable
GW 35 – West Brom (H) – Winnable
GW 36 – Norwich (A) – Scoreable
GW 37 – Chelsea (H) – Scoreable
GW 38 – Swansea (A) – Scoreable

At 9.3 Suarez isn’t cheap, but far cheaper than RVP, Aguero and Rooney.  With Suarez you have the peace of mind that as one of Liverpool’s few first-team strikers, he is less prone to being squad rotated than Liverpool’s bloated midfield.  Liverpool may have sewed up a Europa League spot for next season with their League Cup win and are 10 points adrift of a Champions League spot, but surely they won’t “Kop Out” from playing some decent football? Ultimately, on paper at least, Suarez is a good pick for the remainder of the season, not just for DGW.  It begs the question, will Liverpool score or win more regularly with Suarez and their remaining Premier League fixtures?

I will post My GW 28 blog team (with confirmation of my selected captain and vice-captain) a night before the Gameweek commences.