Friday, 25 November 2016

Seb's GW13 Preview

Teams, Games and Players to Look Out For

First of all, form is a big factor when looking out for teams and potential FPL options. This means teams in and out of form must be studied. West Brom and Hull are excellent examples for GW13. The Baggies have won two matches on the trot, scoring 6 goals and conceding 1. During these matches, Matt Phillips in particular has excelled, registering a goal and assist as well as full bonus in both matches. James Morrison has also netted in consecutive matches, and Rondón has netted a goal (7 shots) and provided an assist. In comparison, Hull have conceded 11 goals at home this season in 6 matches, and have been held scoreless on three occasions. 

Secondly, history should also be considered. This GW, Manchester United vs West Ham provides an example of this. The last time West Ham beat Man U at Old Trafford was in the 2006/07 season. This means that United are unbeaten in 10 straight home matches against the Hammers, scoring 20 goals, so are therefore averaging 2 goals per home game against West Ham in the past 10 years. This brings attacking players such as Zlatan Ibrahimović and Juan Mata (6.4 points per home game this season) into account. Looking at further history to pinpoint potential star players, Anthony Martial could be set to bag the points this GW. Martial has netted 3 goals in his last 3 games against West Ham, so if he starts, he could be in line to net again this GW. History can also bring the prospects of defensive returns to the minds of FPL managers. In this ten game period spanning ten seasons, Man U have kept 6 clean sheets. As a result, Antonio Valencia and David De Gea could be set to reward FPL managers this GW.

Another area that FPL managers must look out for is teams in European competitions (Champions League and Europa League) as well as teams with upcoming mid-week games in the League Cup. Arsenal, Manchester City, Tottenham, Leicester, Southampton and Manchester United all played matches throughout the week and fielded near full strength teams in these games. This may create some doubt for FPL managers, as players may be suffering from fatigue and needing a rest, which could bring rotation into the picture. To make it even worse, Arsenal, Southampton, and Manchester United all have EFL Cup matches mid week after this GW in addition to their European commitments. Liverpool, Hull and West Ham will also be playing in the Cup mid week. With the competition coming to the pointy end, managers may want to field stronger sides in the Cup rather than a reserve team. This could mean less minutes or even a rest for big name players. Major FPL options Kane, Agüero, De Bruyne, Ibrahimović, Sánchez, Özil and Koscielny all played 90 minutes in European games mid week, so these players must be monitored this GW.

Finally, the injuries and suspensions must be taken into account. The loss of a key player can have a negative affect on the performance of a team. At Arsenal, it was confirmed on Wednesday that Cazorla will be out indefinitely, and it is rumoured that it could be another month until he returns. This season, Arsenal have averaged 2.4 goals per game when Cazorla plays, and only 1.5 when he does not. When he is out, Wenger has turned to two very defensive minded midfielders, Elneny and Coquelin, in the double pivot which leaves the Arsenal side rather unbalanced without a deep lying playmaker to build up their play. Ramsey’s poor performance on the left wing against Manchester United may prompt Wenger to move Ramsey back to central midfield, but even still, he is not the same player as Cazorla. This is because he tends to contribute more with penetrating runs into the box rather than controlled distribution and build up play. In a similar way to Arsenal without Cazorla, Leicester will be without their chief central midfielder Danny Drinkwater after he received a three match ban for violent conduct. This may result in the Foxes lacking control in matches and having less fluent build up play and their defence not being as strongly shielded. Furthermore, Klopp revealed after his side’s 0-0 draw with Southampton that Adam Lallana could miss the next two or three games with a groin injury, which will impact the attacking potency of Liverpool, and the front three may have less service. On the defensive front, teams are also impacted by injuries and suspension. In particular, the Middlesbrough defence may be impacted by the loss of George Friend (knee – 2/3 weeks) and Daniel Ayala (ankle – late fitness test). Also, investment in the Sunderland defence such as Patrick van Aanholt or Jordan Pickford looks less appealing now due to the injury of Patty McNair (ACL – season), who had been playing out of position at defensive midfield and helped the Black Cats to consecutive wins with only 1 goal conceded. With this being said however, these injuries do boost the appeal of attacking players playing against these sides.

Potential Stand out Players

Kevin De Bruyne vs Burnley (away) - £10.8 (TSB 10.7%)

Having blanked in only 3 of his 11 matches so far this season (9 assists, 2 goals & 14 bonus points), De Bruyne is one of, if not the most consistent FPL asset. In 4 starts away from home this season, KdB has registered 12 shots (1 every 28.8mins) and 16 shot assists (1 every 21.6mins), with 1 goal and 5 assists in these 4 matches. His appeal his heightened by the recent lacklustre performances from Burnley, who have conceded 6 goals in their past two games.

Roberto Firmino vs Sunderland (home) - £8.8 (TSB 17.9%)

Playing as a centre forward, Roberto Firmino has the potential to return a massive haul at home to Sunderland. This season, he has managed 17 shots (1 every 26.1mins) and 18 shot assists (1 every 24.7mins) in his 5 home games, with 3 goals and 3 assists coming at Anfield in these 5 games. He is also averaging 8 points per home game this season. In two starts against Sunderland last season, Firmino registered 1 goal (7 shots) and 1 assist (5 shot assists) which bodes well for his owners in FPL. Also, his appeal is heightened by the attacking strength of his team, who have scored 17 goals in 5 home games this season (3.4 goals per game).

Mesut Özil vs Bournemouth (home) - £9.6 (TSB 9.0%)

Despite a poor performance last GW against Manchester United, I’m backing Özil to succeed in GW13. This season, both of Özil’s goals and subsequent double figure hauls in the PL have come at home. He also netted a hat-trick at the Emirates in the Champions League. His appeal is boosted by the fact that he has only blanked at home once in his last four appearances. Looking at Özil’s history vs Bournemouth, in two games last season he netted 2 goals and provided 2 assists, as well as creating 11 chances for his teammates. Therefore, Özil definitely has the potential to reward his owners this GW.

Punt Picks

Salomón Rondón vs Hull (away) - £6.5 (TSB 4.9%)

In five away matches this season, Rondón has registered 20 shots, at a frequency of 1 every 22.5 minutes which is very impressive. Also, 2 of his 4 goals, as well as 4 of his 5 bonus points have come away from home. Furthermore, his team is in good form, managing 6 goals in their last 2 games, and this has been without arguably their best attacker Nacer Chadli. In addition, Hull have conceded 11 goals in 6 matches at home this season and have not kept a clean sheet at the KCOM this season. Also, the Baggies have only been held scoreless away from home once this season, which bodes well for FPL managers who own West Brom attackers, in particular, Salomón Rondón.

Troy Deeney vs Stoke (home) - £7.0 (TSB 6.4%)

It’s fair to say that Deeney isn’t in very good form at the moment, having not netted a goal since GW7. However, his assist against Leicester last GW will hopefully spark a return to form for the Watford captain. Deeney has been stuck on 99 goals for the club for some time now, and he will be trying to bag a goal this GW to reach the milestone. Furthermore, his record vs Stoke is very impressive. In 2 matches against the Potters last season, Deeney netted 2 goals and registered 6 shots. 

Gylfi Sigurdsson vs Crystal Palace (home) - £7.2 (TSB 3.5%)

Sigurdsson is one that has flown under the radar of many FPL managers. Looking at his recent attacking statistics, he has been one of the strongest and most consistent options. Overall, he has registered 36 shots (3 goals) at a frequency of 1 every 27 minutes as well as 17 shots assists (3 assists). More impressively, 50% of his shots have been on target. He has also only blanked 3 times in his past 9 GWs. Sigurdsson’s appeal for GW13 is heightened by his record against Crystal Palace. In his last 2 starts against the Eagles, Siggy has scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist. In addition, he took 9 shots and created 9 chances in these two matches, which accounts for a rate of 1 attacking contribution every 10 minutes! Moreover, Palace have conceded 12 goals in their past 4 games, which increases Sigurdsson’s appeal this GW.

Score Predictions

BUR 1 (Hendrick) | MCI 3 (Aguero, De Bruyne, Otamendi)

HUL 1 (Mbokani) | WBA 2 (Dawson, Rondón)

LEI 2 (Mahrez, King) | MID 1 (Negredo)

LIV 5 (Firmino x2, Coutinho, Mané, Clyne) | SUN 1 (Defoe)

SWA 2 (Routledge, Sigurdsson) | CRY 2 (Benteke x2)

CHE 0 | TOT 0

WAT 3 (Deeney, Janmaat, Pereyra) | STK 0

ARS 4 (Özil, Sánchez, Walcott, Giroud) | BOU 0

MUN 2 (Martial, Ibrahimović) | WHU 0

SOU 2 (Boufal, Austin) | EVE 1 (Lukaku)

So, with all this being said, here is the Star Picks XI for GW13

If you have any questions about GW13 or need some advice on your team, please don’t hesitate to contact me on twitter – I’m happy to help.

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Enjoy this week’s Premier League action and good luck to all FPL managers for GW13.

By Sebastian Candido
(Twitter: @sebcandido)